WesternFringe Posted January 12, 2024 Share Posted January 12, 2024 41 minutes ago, stormtracker said: What a dumb hobby. Why did we all get cursed with this? Get this...there are sickos out there who don't care if it snows or not. They have no concept of weather. They go about their day and check an app maybe once or twice a week. And if a storm doesn't come...they are un phased. What must that be like? Have yall thought about these people? They are amongst us and they are in way bigger numbers. Yeah, they are called weirdos or freaks. We are the normal ones. Right? Right?? Please say right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 12, 2024 Share Posted January 12, 2024 2 minutes ago, CAPE said: I'll crawl first. White rain here with a slushy trace so far. An inch would be glorious. Fair enough. I’m getting pretty numb at this point. I’m getting a kick out of all the posts by people trying to convince themselves when deep down they know. Last time it was trying to convince themselves that the typical north warmer trend that happens 90% wouldn’t. This time it was trying to convince them the complicated NS play nice and phase solution would be the right one dispute the best model saying no no no. But we all knew. I don’t even get that upset anymore. I’m almost relieved. It’s more stressful knowing the rug pull is coming and know knowing when. Now it feels like freedom. Miserable snowless freedom. 7 6 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 12, 2024 Share Posted January 12, 2024 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: Fair enough. I’m getting pretty numb at this point. I’m getting a kick out of all the posts by people trying to convince themselves when deep down they know. Last time it was trying to convince themselves that the typical north warmer trend that happens 90% wouldn’t. This time it was trying to convince them the complicated NS play nice and phase solution would be the right one dispute the best model saying no no no. But we all knew. I don’t even get that upset anymore. I’m almost relieved. It’s more stressful knowing the rug pull is coming and know knowing when. Now it feels like freedom. Miserable snowless freedom. see you at 00z 6 1 16 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 12, 2024 Share Posted January 12, 2024 38 minutes ago, CAPE said: 18z GEFS doesn't look bad y'all. Comparison? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 12, 2024 Share Posted January 12, 2024 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Fair enough. I’m getting pretty numb at this point. I’m getting a kick out of all the posts by people trying to convince themselves when deep down they know. Last time it was trying to convince themselves that the typical north warmer trend that happens 90% wouldn’t. This time it was trying to convince them the complicated NS play nice and phase solution would be the right one dispute the best model saying no no no. But we all knew. I don’t even get that upset anymore. I’m almost relieved. It’s more stressful knowing the rug pull is coming and know knowing when. Now it feels like freedom. Miserable snowless freedom. Definitely saw it coming. I prefer southern stream dominant patterns, it's sad to see the inevitable coming. When I realized the synoptic differences between the Euro and the rest of the crowd were at 60hrs after we trended to an "easier" way to win, I immediately started worrying. But here we are... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 12, 2024 Share Posted January 12, 2024 1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Comparison? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 12, 2024 Share Posted January 12, 2024 It seemed ten or fifteen years ago, when we tracked a storm for about a week, and it then showed marked improvement, we were pretty confident that we would score with that storm with a lead time of 5 to 6 days. Now the models seem to be all over the place up to a couple of days before game time. Frustrating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 12, 2024 Share Posted January 12, 2024 18 minutes ago, Imgoinhungry said: What model did a better job with the 1/6 bust? Euro or gfs? . The Euro did. But it wasnt real good either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 12, 2024 Share Posted January 12, 2024 1 minute ago, DDweatherman said: Definitely saw it coming. I prefer southern stream dominant patterns, it's sad to see the inevitable coming. When I realized the synoptic differences between the Euro and the rest of the crowd were at 60hrs after we trended to an "easier" way to win, I immediately started worrying. But here we are... Yea I was thinking 1966 and 1987 were top analogs and both had a January 10 day period very similar to this pattern where a tpv got trapped under a block. And both lead to back to back snowstorms here. But I wonder based on recent results if it’s harder to get the NS to dig enough for that to work. Seems whenever we need the NS it’s typically not digging far enough south and it’s got a million fast moving vorts running interference. Those 2 are related. But I think we would be better off without the tpv. Of course then the not cold enough issue might come back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WesternFringe Posted January 12, 2024 Share Posted January 12, 2024 Just now, clskinsfan said: The Euro did. But it wasnt real good either. It gave me 4”, but I got “zero point zero.” 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peribonca Posted January 12, 2024 Share Posted January 12, 2024 1 hour ago, NorthArlington101 said: What if we are overlooking Sunday https://x.com/seckhardt/status/1745900569913336093?s=46&t=YRAxGyE8QLsoshMtJniktg Wouldn't surprise me if that ended up as a more impressive event than this 1/15-1/17 "storm" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 12, 2024 Share Posted January 12, 2024 1 minute ago, WesternFringe said: It gave me 4”, but I got “zero point zero.” At this range the Euro got schooled by the GFS if I remember right...it was pretty far east and cold, at least up in this area past 96 hours then was gradually coming west and milder. I was concerned about a snowier solution 4-5 days out because the recent year normally amped Euro with any east coast storm in that 84-120 period was not amped relative to the CMC/GFS at that range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WesternFringe Posted January 12, 2024 Share Posted January 12, 2024 I’m am not sure where the panic room is bc I have never been there, but some of you all might want to find it and check it out! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 12, 2024 Share Posted January 12, 2024 But the RGEM…. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted January 12, 2024 Share Posted January 12, 2024 17 minutes ago, WesternFringe said: It gave me 4”, but I got “zero point zero.” Me too. And deep down I know I'll get the ole' Blutarsky from anything next week as well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 12, 2024 Share Posted January 12, 2024 Latest NBM. Slow bleed is picking up now. Need the 0z runs to start turning this around! 4 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 12, 2024 Share Posted January 12, 2024 Just now, CAPE said: Latest NBM. Slow bleed is picking up now. Need the 0z runs to start turning this around! It’s over. Will be lucky to see an inch out of this, and I’m usually one of the more optimistic ones 6 2 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 12, 2024 Share Posted January 12, 2024 WB 18Z GEFS compared to yesterday. What a cave to the EURO. They should scrap the GFS and start over.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted January 12, 2024 Share Posted January 12, 2024 The GFS only wins when it shows rain or no snow. I think Ji is on to something 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keviepoo Posted January 12, 2024 Share Posted January 12, 2024 I will it to snow... OK folks... rest easy... gonna snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVsnowlover Posted January 13, 2024 Share Posted January 13, 2024 1 hour ago, Deck Pic said: our big storm is next weekend. This is a table setter It's always next around here...next model run, next storm, next year...we suck at snow on a side note the rain is coming down nicely outside right now...sigh 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted January 13, 2024 Share Posted January 13, 2024 1 hour ago, stormtracker said: What a dumb hobby. Why did we all get cursed with this? Get this...there are sickos out there who don't care if it snows or not. They have no concept of weather. They go about their day and check an app maybe once or twice a week. And if a storm doesn't come...they are un phased. What must that be like? Have yall thought about these people? They are amongst us and they are in way bigger numbers. There's even people who... *gasp*... hate snow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted January 13, 2024 Share Posted January 13, 2024 17 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said: The GFS only wins when it shows rain or no snow. I think Ji is on to something He honestly is... if you just simply went with whatever model showed no snow you'd pretty much be batting 1.000 over the past 2 years. Maybe it legit just doesn't snow here anymore under 750ft Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 13, 2024 Share Posted January 13, 2024 18z Euro has nothing of note. Same as 12z in terms of sfc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted January 13, 2024 Share Posted January 13, 2024 What a crap hobby. The models are like some sick version of Schoedinger's cat. Just by fact of modeling a storm it causes the actual wave function to collapse so the storm disappears. We'd be in the same shape this winter to date if they'd have just shown the SER on every run since November. I'll fall on the sword - you all cancel your WB subscriptions and instead pay me monthly. I'll produce snow maps that show monster storms and post them up four times a day. I'll guarantee you ahead of time that I'll pull the rug at some point before my predicted storm but at least I'll shows HECS and BECS on all the maps right up to the event so we can live in denial for longer. Frankly that would be just as accurate forecasting snow as the real models have done for the past few years. 2 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted January 13, 2024 Share Posted January 13, 2024 4 minutes ago, caviman2201 said: He honestly is... if you just simply went with whatever model showed no snow you'd pretty much be batting 1.000 over the past 2 years. Maybe it legit just doesn't snow here anymore under 750ft Here's a tip: it doesn't snow at 750 ft either. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 13, 2024 Share Posted January 13, 2024 21 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 18Z GEFS compared to yesterday. What a cave to the EURO. They should scrap the GFS and start over.... As I said before, just because the GFS shows a snowy solution for three days in a row it really means nothing. Euro for the win yet again. Persistence does not mean the GFS is going to be correct. This is not the first time the Euro schooled the GFS, and it will not be the last. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted January 13, 2024 Share Posted January 13, 2024 Don't worry... Memphis and Little Rock are about to double their climo by being fringed... by being too far north... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted January 13, 2024 Share Posted January 13, 2024 2 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said: Here's a tip: it doesn't snow at 750 ft either. Whats your total since Jan 2022? Is it > 0"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 13, 2024 Share Posted January 13, 2024 32 minutes ago, Terpeast said: It’s over. Will be lucky to see an inch out of this, and I’m usually one of the more optimistic ones I hope Feb is going to be epic. We have had a severe - NAO, juiced up STJ, a severe - AO and nothing to show for it except flood issues. One issue after another. Cruel hobby for sure. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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