Monitoring some form of significant ( to be determined more precisely) impact winter storm, Jan 16/17th. Moderate seems to be the upper limit - for now

[Typhoon Tip]

5 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

The NBM is 5-7" for most of New England and the EURO has a 1002mb low 250 miles SE of the benchmark inside 100 hours.. When have we ever seen that? I've seen times recently when euro has had a significant snow storm while nothing else bites inside 100 hours only for the EURO to be 100% wrong. 

I really think folks should pay attention to this ... "I think the Euro cluster overall is missing data.  I'm noticing that the source/origin for much of this thing's S/W mechanics are not coming from the Pacific typology - they are materializing out of the decay of a small SPV situated over the NW Territories up amid the eastern EPO domain.  Look at the ICON behavior - again...not using that model, the point is made.  We vary the sampling of where this S/W's guts actually materialize from just 'that' much you get that extraordinary single run-to-run variance of size and amplitude. "

It's at least worth it to venture the question over sufficient data sampling over that region.  Not that the open expanse of the Pacific oceanic echo chamber is much better ... but this system's sensitively appears almost - from what I am seeing - entirely with the method/how/how-much-so gets injected from that region.

[Typhoon Tip]

I'm not surprised the 06z EPS, frankly.   I suspected it wouldn't be much of a d-drip savior just yet, because of all guidance systems ... the Euro appears to be the least dispersive amongst its members. 

[ORH_wxman]

It’s def weird for the euro to be OTS like that compared to all the other more amped guidance. Guess we’ll see how 12z responds. I’d expect the euro to at least partially bite at 12z if we’re gonna have a significant system.  

[Sey-Mour Snow]

2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I really think folks should pay attention to this ... "I think the Euro cluster overall is missing data.  I'm noticing that the source/origin for much of this thing's S/W mechanics are not coming from the Pacific typology - they are materializing out of the decay of a small SPV situated over the NW Territories up amid the eastern EPO domain.  Look at the ICON behavior - again...not using that model, the point is made.  We vary the sampling of where this S/W's guts actually materialize from just 'that' much you get that extraordinary single run-to-run variance of size and amplitude. "

It's at least worth it to venture the question over sufficient data sampling over that region.  Not that the open expanse of the Pacific oceanic echo chamber is much better ... but this system's sensitively appears almost - from what I am seeing - entirely with the method/how/how-much-so gets injected from that region.

 No doubt there are major differnces in GFS/EURO there at starting around 60 hours and the differnces increase pretty dramatically by 80-90 hours.. 

[Typhoon Tip]

9 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Completely agree. Competing with residual cool ENSO backdrop amid a very warm west PAC.

Not to push my agenda like a shining dick tip but ... I did warn that these ENSOs were suffering some kind of negative interference going back years at this point.  I think it's just too big to wrap heads around or something but whatever ...  we're seeing it more objectively/coherently in observations et al now, so it is what it is.

And yes ...CC has something to do with it - sorry

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Well maybe I’ll be wrong, but I’m not complaining if we compromise. We hold the course. 

Not worried.

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Not to push my agenda like a shining dick tip but ... I did warn that these ENSO were suffering some kind of negative interference going back years at this point.  I think it's just too big to wrap heads around or something but whatever ...  we're seeing it more objectively in observation so it is what it is.

And yes ...CC has something to do with it - sorry

I'm not contesting it....the west PAC warm pool is certainly at least somewhat attributed to CC.

[brooklynwx99]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

It’s def weird for the euro to be OTS like that compared to all the other more amped guidance. Guess we’ll see how 12z responds. I’d expect the euro to at least partially bite at 12z if we’re gonna have a significant system.  

i can see how it’s bias to overamp and hold energy back can be an issue here instead of ejecting the trailing wave, it remains disorganized and the trough never buckles

just a hypothesis. it is certainly an outlier, but we’ll see

[Typhoon Tip]

6 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

 No doubt there are major differnces in GFS/EURO there at starting around 60 hours and the differnces increase pretty dramatically by 80-90 hours.. 

Yeah, I mean ...I can't see any other cause of/for the stark discrepancy between -

this is/are the wholesale guidance machinery of either, pulled almost diametric.  The GEFs? 

That would be neat result if that 964 MB low on Nantucket Island member of the GEFs verified, whilst the D4 EPS was doing this. 

Or vice versa

[Typhoon Tip]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'm not contesting it....the west PAC warm pool is certainly at least somewhat attributed to CC.

I know you don't ... I'm just broadcast there to the general resenting tone over the subject matter.

[CoastalWx]

Euro is definitely weaker with the nrn s/w at hr 108. That’s part of the issue.

[ariof]

3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I know you don't ... I'm just broadcast there to the general resenting tone over the subject matter.

Jeez post a trigger warning for these posts at least

[Typhoon Tip]

11 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

It’s def weird for the euro to be OTS like that compared to all the other more amped guidance. Guess we’ll see how 12z responds. I’d expect the euro to at least partially bite at 12z if we’re gonna have a significant system.  

It strikes me as just missing data.  I wouldn't be shocked if any one of these guidance that currently are showing upper-moderate impact...etc etc, offer up a cycle of whiff, too. 

It's like an either or thing?  You know?     either the model's got the data = storm.  don't get the don't = not storm.  

Seems less about handling and amounts in this case.  That much definitive difference is suspicious one way or the other, though

[Spanks45]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Euro is definitely weaker with the nrn s/w at hr 108. That’s part of the issue.

Amazing that a difference in the strength of a s/w, only a few days out could be the difference between rain/snow/whiff....clearly this potential is very intricate and won't be resolved until we are well within NAM time, lol...

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

It strikes me as just missing data.  I wouldn't be shocked if any one of these guidance that currently are showing upper-moderate impact...etc etc, offer up a cycle of whiff, too. 

It's like an either or thing?  You know?     either the model's got the data = storm.  don't get the don't = not storm.  

Seems less about handling and amounts in this case.  That much definitive difference, is suspicious one way or the other, though

Right but which guidance is lacking the more correct data? Normally you’d toss the outlier but in the case of the Euro, its primary advantage is not processing data but rather initialization of it. So that begs the question…is the Euro data assimilation seeing something that is correct that the others aren’t seeing? Or maybe it’s just full of shit…at least we don’t have to wait that long to find out. This storm is going to be getting into D4 now. 

[Hazey]

Can someone post the 06z EPS please? for those of us who don't get that product.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

It strikes me as just missing data.  I wouldn't be shocked if any one of these guidance that currently are showing upper-moderate impact...etc etc, offer up a cycle of whiff, too. 

It's like an either or thing?  You know?     either the model's got the data = storm.  don't get the don't = not storm.  

Seems less about handling and amounts in this case.  That much definitive difference is suspicious one way or the other, though

[Typhoon Tip]

8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Right but which guidance is lacking the more correct data? Normally you’d toss the outlier but in the case of the Euro, its primary advantage is not processing data but rather initialization of it. So that begs the question…is the Euro data assimilation seeing something that is correct that the others aren’t seeing? Or maybe it’s just full of shit…at least we don’t have to wait that long to find out. This storm is going to be getting into D4 now. 

Yup ... What just saying the same thing to Seymour'  ...

I just can't help but think about the Boxing Day event in 2010.  That one was on fumes even mere 48 or 60 hours ahead and out of nowhere we were left to trust the NAM ( ETA?) ...which seemed to be the first to pick it back up.   But even then it was dubious because the NAM had ( and may still have) a NW bias over the western Atlantic as one of many in it's various idiotic charms.  Then the 06z Euro marched back... what?  and all the sudden, 12z runs start pouring in big event out of seemingly nowhere.

That was an event that had considerable presentation when in the deeper middle range but was lost for 2 or even 3 days...

[Prismshine Productions]

Can someone post the 06z EPS please? for those of us who don't get that product.

Here ya go

Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk

[Sey-Mour Snow]

@bluewavein the NYC forum posted a gif of EURO situation it was well SE at 100 hours only to make a massive NW shift the next few runs in the 90-102 hour range..  So i guess it has happened before with the EURO.. Feb 7 2021 .. 

 

 

[Typhoon Tip]

6 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

@bluewavein the NYC forum posted a gif of a similar EURO well SE at 100 hours only to make a massive NW shift the next few runs in the 90-102 hour range.. So i guess it has happened before with the EURO.. Feb 4 2021

We should go look at the source/origin of that event's governing mechanics, and see if we can identify any similarities - not even analogs ... but by concept.  I mean if data sampling can [possibly] be identified even regardless synoptic scaffolding. 

Here's a thought:   the Euro has this 4-d variable correction/smoothing system that is really why it was "Dr No" for so many years.  Letting model physics run naked out in time will result in more boners because their junk flops around a lot more, whereas the Euro "corrects" those by tucking them in a jock-strap that's really purposefully designed to limit fractal from taking over and modulating out in time...

Kidding obviously, but the point is ... the Euro may be "over correcting" because "if" it's not getting the proper input, it "assumes" it's errant and removes it.  

I'm just baffled how there's so little in- between here.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I call BS on the Euro suite.

[George001]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I call BS on the Euro suite.

Agree, it will come north.

[apm]

31 minutes ago, Hazey said:

Can someone post the 06z EPS please? for those of us who don't get that product.

[brooklynwx99]

i don’t think that AK vort is the whole reason. the CMC has the same feature and amps up just fine. i think the ECMWF just struggles consolidating the trough itself 

[Kitz Craver]

18 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I call BS on the Euro suite.

Good, ‘cause that’s basically a non event, why though?

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, Kitz Craver said:

Good, ‘cause that’s basically a non event, why though?

Honestly, I haven't examined the synoptics of this yet...will do so tomorrow for a First Call that should be warranted...but simply put, this is a "gut"  instinct based upon how I expect this season to evolve. I just can't imagine coastal SNE approaches late January with next to snowfall given what I knew about it going in based upon what I learned last fall.

[Chrisrotary12]

3 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Tuesday. You have a fetish of bringing things too early.

 

3 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

They always come in faster. Rain or snow in CT will start prior to daybreak 

Reminder that 7am Tuesday is still Monday.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Feel free to weenie me for that...I get it. If I'm wrong, then so be it. One caveat being that I could see guidance focusing more on 1/20 instead. I don't think that emerge form this period unscathed.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Maybe my opinion will change when I look at things tomorrow, but I doubt it.