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Monitoring some form of significant ( to be determined more precisely) impact winter storm, Jan 16/17th. Moderate seems to be the upper limit - for now

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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ORH_wxman
ORH_wxman

I just cleaned up this thread…what an embarrassment for some of you. Act like you’ve posted on the forums before and didn’t just get here from accuwx forums.   This is still a storm thread.

ORH_wxman
ORH_wxman

If people want to act like children and complain about every threat, they can do it elsewhere. There are still people who log on here to read about the meteorology and actual model discussion of a thr

ORH_wxman
ORH_wxman

It’s actually trended better since 00z but this forum has become an unreadable dumpster fire. 

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Kitz Craver

Kitz Craver

Posted
Posted
15 minutes ago, UnitedWx said:

Show me the 12Z run tomorrow after the cutter, then we can talk about the evolution. Gut says we don't miss to the south

Right, have to believe there are some details yet to be ironed out until the screamer gets the F outta here.

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WinterWolf

WinterWolf

Posted
Posted
10 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Gefs was nw too. Euro op tossed again. What a pos. If this thing misses then I’ll call it a horse again but as of now, my little pony needs a nap.

This is why I laughed yesterday when folks were saying how would todays modeling handle ‘93..?  It would be a shit show. These models are all over the place on every single system at 3-4 days out, every single time. Especially the Euro lately(what a joke that model has become).  But some think these models would be able to handle a triple phaser, at a week out..it’s comical.   Way too much sensitivity messing these things up, and causing them to jump all over the place like a shaking, neurotic Chihuahua. 

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RUNNAWAYICEBERG

RUNNAWAYICEBERG

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

This is why I laughed yesterday when folks were saying how would todays modeling handle ‘93..?  It would be a shit show. These models are all over the place on every single system at 3-4 days out, every single time. Especially the Euro lately(what a joke that model has become).  But some think these models would be able to handle a triple phaser, at a week out..it’s comical.   Way too much sensitivity messing these things up, and causing them to jump all over the place like a shaking, neurotic Chihuahua. 

I think we have too many models running too many times a day. More info is a good thing (especially for weenies and our vein injections) but it can also lead to more chaos. It’s harder to be a good met these days imo even though they have more tools at their disposal. The Euro not being that much better than other models also doesn’t help. 

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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Posted

I'll have to catch up on this thread ( was back on page 3 ) ... but, just that it's peculiar how the EPS backed off slightly and the operational Euro ...completely devoid on this signal, considering that the Euro source/cluster was actually the first guidance to even illustrate this thing back 3 or 4 days ago..

Now, the GGEM, which had zip clue all along has this amped up snow to wet nasty coastal over Worcester. 

I rather like the 00z GFS, only because of the compromise between the Euro and GGEM.  Haven't seen the UKMET.    The ICON when from essentially a 95% whiff to something similar to the GGEM between it's 00z and 06z run.

Meanwhile, the GEFs have some scary bombs near Martha's Vineyard.

The next question is ... what the fuck is going on -

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted
Just now, ORH_wxman said:

00z eps still had some nice hits though they were certainly more tame than the 18z eps. 06z eps come out in about 20-25 min

At least this time around even if it came close we have more nrly ageostrophic flow vs last storm.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted
Just now, CoastalWx said:

At least this time around even if it came close we have more nrly ageostrophic flow vs last storm.

Yeah this is the type of storm where if it comes close, you’re more worried about midlevels versus low levels. Let’s lay down some good pack in this one in preparation for the 1/20 HECS. 

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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13 hours ago, WinterWolf said:

My only point was that one of the big two(Euro or GFS) late last week had a beast for this time frame for the area.  I’m wondering if this is the come back of that idea?  Interesting. 

Yeah I got your point - it was an interesting one, actually... I thought the same thing.  Sometimes we forget an early model suggestions because it gets lost in daily arguments among other guidance with variations on type ...size, amplitude... everything.  Then, get in closer and that early notion returns. 

I'm not saying we're getting a 965 mb bomb on Martha's Vineyard from this - at least one Euro run about 4 days ago, if anyone's forgotten. But, there are a couple members of the GEFs in that range, in the spread from both 00z and 06z.

I think the Euro cluster overall is missing data.  I'm noticing that the source/origin for much of this thing's S/W mechanics are not coming from the Pacific typology - they are materializing out of the decay of a small SPV situated over the NW Territories up amid the eastern EPO domain.  Look at the ICON behavior - again...not using that model, the point is made.  We vary the sampling of where this S/W's guts actually materialize from just 'that' much you get that extraordinary single run-to-run variance of size and amplitude.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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7 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Theme I am seeing emerge this month is the active N stream that I anticipated last fall as a result of the residual cool ENSO GLAAM. 

I like my spot this year.

...the flip side of which means, the El Nino is not fully coupling the hemisphere

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Sey-Mour Snow

Sey-Mour Snow

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

06z EPS was no help. Further SE than 00z run

The NBM is 5-7" for most of New England and the EURO has a 1002mb low 250 miles SE of the benchmark inside 100 hours.. When have we ever seen that? I've seen times recently when euro has had a significant snow storm while nothing else bites inside 100 hours only for the EURO to be 100% wrong. 

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