Monitoring some form of significant ( to be determined more precisely) impact winter storm, Jan 16/17th. Moderate seems to be the upper limit - for now

[CoastalWx]

4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

You know this.. but we don't sweat it at this range -

 

I’m in the camp of whiff being not my issue again. Sorry Pope.

[Henry's Weather]

Major consolidation here

[Typhoon Tip]

I'll tell you, this is near the ceiling for 500 mb mechanics in a negative tilt.  Look at that 150 kts leaving the Del Marva, placing SNE right in the cross-hairs of the left exit region - meanwhile.. .the 300 mb level winds are anomalously strong with hints at entrance region situated over NH/ME

Whatever the QPF is on those intervals from HFD to CON you may as well go ahead and assume a meso band or two destroys that estimate.

I mean ... this run in a vacuum.  I have to tell you though, that is the most powerful S/W ( seems to almost be two in there possibly caught in bed together ) I've seen in quite some time passing over that particular region.   150 f'n kts.   That right there is how you overcome the Miami rule - turn the S/W itself into a comet impact.

Also, what's interesting here is the lack of S/stream in this lead up.  The Euro had more ...but utterly abandoned the N/stream on this last 12z run...  It should be Noted that the Euro at one time had a mid 960s mb juggernaut near the Islands... I am thinking about this GFS run ... 'cause, that's what dweebs do.  heh. but, if we were to introduce a S/stream (more so) into that sort of junction ...  yeeeeeah

[mahk_webstah]

This pattern has been explosive for a while, and it’s gonna get interesting as we continue to move towards being on the cold side of things

[WinterWolf]

3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I'll tell you, this is near the ceiling for 500 mb mechanics in a negative tilt.  Look at that 150 kts leaving the Del Marva, placing SNE right in the cross-hairs of the left exit region - meanwhile.. .the 300 mb level winds are anomalously strong with hints at entrance region situated over NH/ME

Whatever the QPF is on those intervals from HFD to CON you may as well go ahead and assume a meso band or two destroys that estimate.

I mean ... this run in a vacuum. 

Maybe this is the big boy after all? It as hinted at last week by one of the models. 

[Typhoon Tip]

3 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Maybe this is the big boy after all? It as hinted at last week by one of the models. 

I don't know about the 'big boy' heh... but yeah, I added to that post and discussed those Euro runs

[WinterWolf]

8 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I don't know about the 'big boy' heh... but yeah, I added to that post and discussed those Euro runs

My only point was that one of the big two(Euro or GFS) late last week had a beast for this time frame for the area.  I’m wondering if this is the come back of that idea?  Interesting. 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

1 hour ago, Sandstorm94 said:

Lock it in

Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk
 

Lock me in a padded room if this happens 

[ORH_wxman]

Don’t fear the sleet…I’d take half a foot of thump and then an inch of sleet to solidify the pack for the cold week in the wake of that system. Not that it’s going to be the final solution so it’s all just fodder. 
 

EPS at 18z will be interesting to see if they come NW too. OP run was probably out to lunch given the ensembles were mostly NW of the OP run. 

[Damage In Tolland]

23 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Maybe this is the big boy after all? It as hinted at last week by one of the models. 

Watch for ice 

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Watch for ice 

Lol..the only ice will be in my drink. 

[Hoth]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Blows 

I would have a legit melt if that played out. 

[78Blizzard]

As far as the "big boy" is concerned, let the hype begin:

 

[WinterWolf]

Just now, 78Blizzard said:

As far as the "big boy" is concerned, let the hype begin:

 

Oh I wasn’t meaning that, just that a model run or two last week had something big for this window.  

[WeatherX]

18z Gefs paint a nice picture for SNE


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[Damage In Tolland]

3 minutes ago, WeatherX said:

18z Gefs paint a nice picture for SNE


.

Is the paintbrush using beer? Paint with beer by numbers?

[WeatherX]

Is the paintbrush using beer? Paint with beer by numbers?

Tiny pixels Kevin, as small as snowflakes falling as far and wide as you can imagine with surprising numbers


.

[Damage In Tolland]

6 minutes ago, WeatherX said:

Tiny pixels Kevin, as small as snowflakes falling as far and wide as you can imagine with surprising numbers


.

6 9?

[WeatherX]

6 9?

Your first call? Otherwise I like those numbers


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[ORH_wxman]

18z EPS a nice bump NW. Lot of good hits in there 

 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

18z EPS a nice bump NW. Lot of good hits in there 

 

The control run which always follows the op was 500 miles plus NW.. looking at the indies there’s several monster hits for many on this board .. 

[JoeSnowBOS]

The control run which always follows the op was 500 miles plus NW.. looking at the indies there’s several monster hits for many on this board .. 

EPS map? Back in the game?


.

[Chrisrotary12]

I’m spending Sunday to Tuesday in Jeffersonville, VT. Driving the 3 hours home early Tuesday afternoon. Would be nice if models could consolidate so I can know if I have to extend stay. Lol

[WinterWolf]

33 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

The control run which always follows the op was 500 miles plus NW.. looking at the indies there’s several monster hits for many on this board .. 

Encouraging. 

[George001]

3 hours ago, ineedsnow said:

no 

Yeah, looks like more sleet than ice.

[George001]

2 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Don’t fear the sleet…I’d take half a foot of thump and then an inch of sleet to solidify the pack for the cold week in the wake of that system. Not that it’s going to be the final solution so it’s all just fodder. 
 

EPS at 18z will be interesting to see if they come NW too. OP run was probably out to lunch given the ensembles were mostly NW of the OP run. 

Yeah, it’s not a perfect setup but I would take that and run. Half a foot of snow and then an inch of sleet would be a great outcome especially since there is another threat following that is a better setup for the coast. That’s the nice thing about having a good airmass, even if the track isn’t ideal these runs are still giving me a good about of snow before any changeover.

[Prismshine Productions]

Dawgs be barkin'

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[TauntonBlizzard2013]

12 minutes ago, Sandstorm94 said:

Dawgs be barkin'

Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk
 

Lots of deep interior hits there

[CoastalWx]

17 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Lots of deep interior hits there

Conway!

[H2Otown_WX]

19 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Lots of deep interior hits there

Dick Tolleris said suppression is the concern