Monitoring some form of significant ( to be determined more precisely) impact winter storm, Jan 16/17th. Moderate seems to be the upper limit - for now

[Typhoon Tip]

37 minutes ago, George001 said:

It has a higher verification score than the gfs

People will tend to trust their own anecdotal experience and dismiss a panned statement like this intones, without you citing sources

just fyi  -

[40/70 Benchmark]

38 minutes ago, George001 said:

It has a higher verification score than the gfs

False.

[dendrite]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

False.

Actually it does

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, dendrite said:

Actually it does

Show me the data.

[SouthCoastMA]

Maybe it was upgraded in the past year? others would know better

[dendrite]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Show me the data.

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, dendrite said:

What this says to me is that the GEM a better month than the GFS.

[dendrite]

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

What this says to me is that the GEM a better month than the GFS.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I need more than one month of data to trust the GEM over the GFS...I've heard the same crap about the UK, but time and time again its proven erratic.

[dendrite]

I don’t have the precip data though and obviously accuracy surrounding cyclones doesn’t necessarily correlate with accuracy around the NHEM in fair conditions. 

[dendrite]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I need more than one month of data to trust the GEM over the GFS...I've heard the same crap about the UK, but time and time again its proven erratic.

I just gave you 10 years. The numbers show it passed the GFS in the last 4 years.

[Typhoon Tip]

4 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I don’t have the precip data though and obviously accuracy surrounding cyclones doesn’t necessarily correlate with accuracy around the NHEM in fair conditions. 

Yeah... I was even going to say that the "N. Hemisphere" has predicatively superior regions over others - and that individual models will handle quadratures differently than others.

In other words, the GGEM may be fan-fuckum-tastic from Japan to California and better than the GFS; the opposite could be true over N/A. 

(that's plausible speculation though - I don't know if there is any way in which these averages are smoothed, or not smoothed/normalized)

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

I don’t have the precip data though and obviously accuracy surrounding cyclones doesn’t necessarily correlate with accuracy around the NHEM in fair conditions. 

This is what I am getting at. Same with the UK. I guess if you wanna pin that chart over your bedpost and take it over the GFS, then you do you. 

I'll pass.

But technically, I stand corrected. I did not know that.

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

I just gave you 10 years. The numbers show it passed the GFS in the last 4 years.

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

I guess ideally, learn each model's strengths and weaknesses within the context of east coast cyclogensis in order to maximize their utility and in so doing, forecast proficiency/accuracy. I know the GFS tends to be overbearing with respect to the N stream...

[dendrite]

My girl Alicia B is handling the global modeling verification for NCEP now. It’s been awhile since I talked to her, but I could pick her brain on this. Maybe she has some unreleased precip data too.

[WeatherX]

Can always use the off hour GEM runs if needed for the d drip instead of searching for pieces under the couch.

https://meteocentre.com/numerical-weather-prediction/forecast-systems.php?&lang=en


.

[CoastalWx]

I’ve seen the 500 scores but anecdotally around here it hasn’t been great. 

[dendrite]

15 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I’ve seen the 500 scores but anecdotally around here it hasn’t been great. 

I posted 850t and slp too.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

As long as we know the models bias then we good 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

As long as we know the models bias then we good 

 

GEM always too warm, and GFS is prone to being too aggressive with the northern stream.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

GEM always too warm, and GFS is prone to being too aggressive with the northern stream.

Also Gfs under amped tendency’s  . GEM over amped tendency’s 

[dryslot]

18z Euro a couple tics NW of 12z, Need a few more though.

[dendrite]

Some of that is anecdotal and/or outdated. But if you find a tendency that works for you then that’s great. I’m just always hesitant of prolonged biases with how frequently they tinker with these models now. 

[dendrite]

1 minute ago, dryslot said:

18z Euro a couple tics NW of 12z, Need a few more though.

It has more hope than Dallas right now

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

It has more hope than Dallas right now

"There they Go"

[Go Kart Mozart]

7 minutes ago, dryslot said:

"There they Go"

Ninja'd!  I was just about to post YEAHH HERE WE GO!!!!! HAHAHHAHAAH

[40/70 Benchmark]

21 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Some of that is anecdotal and/or outdated. But if you find a tendency that works for you then that’s great. I’m just always hesitant of prolonged biases with how frequently they tinker with these models now. 

Yea, good point. Try to keep an open mind, I guess.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

1 hour ago, dryslot said:

18z Euro a couple tics NW of 12z, Need a few more though.

24hr precip is .15 NW of canal

 

[WeatherX]

0z HRRR lays down a nice blanket for most folks


.

[ineedsnow]

9 minutes ago, WeatherX said:

0z HRRR lays down a nice blanket for most folks


.

3 to 5 or so.. most would take that