Monitoring some form of significant ( to be determined more precisely) impact winter storm, Jan 16/17th. Moderate seems to be the upper limit - for now

[dryslot]

Euro says meh, Better chance at getting more in a squall this afternoon.

[Typhoon Tip]

24 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Euro today says 1-3/2-4.

This may be a rare scenario ( when speaking in terms of model performance/history <-- relative to...) that the Euro corrects toward the less conventional/trusted model sources.  In fact, ...so rare, I wonder if that's ever really happened where a GGEM/RGEM/ICON blend successfully coup'ed

That said ... after 3 consecutive cycles the GGEM had ticked more impacting... as of 12z, arrived looking more RGEM like than ever.  It gets hard to knock such strident continuity; now < 60 hours, when said trend of the Can cluster has been there since late middle range.  -when then also introducing the philosophical aspect I outlined regarding the explosive baroclinic boundary condition laid into place between ~ ATL to just SE of Cape Cod by this arctic boundary/air mass that slows down and stall along that axis...  I think there is too much argument in favor of these guidance from both an operational technique, to concept Meteorology, to dispose these solutions in lieu of a Euro paltriness that has in fact been 'trying to avoid admitting it's wrong by hedging the event in silent intervals'

I mean I'm not sure of any of this... sort of tongue in cheek. 

[WinterWolf]

4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

This may be a rare scenario ( when speaking in terms of model performance/history <-- relative to...) that the Euro corrects toward the less conventional/trusted model sources.  In fact, ...so rare, I wonder if that's ever really happened where a GGEM/RGEM/ICON blend successfully coup'ed

That said ... after 3 consecutive cycles the GGEM had ticked more impacting... as of 12z, arrived looking more RGEM like than ever.  It's gets hard to knock such strident continuity < 60 hours, when said trend of the Can cluster has been there since late middle range.  -when then also introducing the philosophical aspect I outlined regarding the explosive baroclinic boundary condition laid into place between ~ ATL to just SE of Cape Cod by this arctic boundary/air mass that slows down and stall along that axis...  I think there is too much argument in favor of these guidance from both an operational technique, to concept Meteorology, to dispose these solutions in lieu of a Euro paltriness that has in fact been 'trying to admit it's wrong without looking like it's modeling the event any differently'

Sooo…another words, the Canadian and the RGEM are gonna be more right with the heavier look you think. As the Euro plays catch up. Is that what you’re meaning? 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

13 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Euro says 1-2” S of route 2 . Maybe 2.5 for Garth and Cape

unless a 1005 Mb low is producing magic at “mid levels “

Yeah, more than 2” will be tough on that look. C-1 most places, maybe 2” spot on that.

[Damage In Tolland]

6 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Sooo…another words, the Canadian and the RGEM are gonna be more right with the heavier look you think. As the Euro plays catch up. Is that what you’re meaning? 

Yes this is such an easy forecast 

[Snowcrazed71]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Yes this is such an easy forecast 

Sorry man, but I think your forecast for what you're expecting is wrong. If it's not, I'll eat crow

[WinterWolf]

6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Yes this is such an easy forecast 

Lol, well I’m thinking 2-3” here is a safe bet for now. 

[Typhoon Tip]

26 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Sooo…another words, the Canadian and the RGEM are gonna be more right with the heavier look you think. As the Euro plays catch up. Is that what you’re meaning? 

not saying either way ... just pointing out some aspects I'm noticing -

Extending that it's hard to automatically assume the lesser popular/known guidance types will be typically wrong in this seemingly rare case.

[WinterWolf]

2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

not saying either way ... just point out some aspects I'm noticing -

Oh ok.  But sounded to me like you were hedging towards the Canadians, when you said hard to ignore the 60 hr consistency idea…but I guess I misunderstood. 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

19 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Oh ok.  But sounded to me like you were hedging towards the Canadians, when you said hard to ignore the 60 hr consistency idea…but I guess I misunderstood. 

Seems to me If anyone  reads his post , he definitely is commenting on why those may score a “coup “

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Seems to me If you read his post , he definitely is commenting on why those may score a “coup “

Yes, Exactly my point. 

[SJonesWX]

1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

Only one exclamation point though, needs two or three.

Post of the year!!!

[HIPPYVALLEY]

1 hour ago, dryslot said:

Euro says meh, Better chance at getting more in a squall this afternoon.

I hope not, I only got .25” in the squall. 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

NAMs bring this in later tomorrow evening now wth

[Snowcrazed71]

Just now, Sey-Mour Snow said:

NAMs bring this in later tomorrow evening now wth

I think going with a 1"-3" amount for us is most likely. Anything more will be a welcomed surprise. 

[Thunderblizzard]

1 minute ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

NAMs bring this in later tomorrow evening now wth

Looks like it puts more focus on the initial stuff instead, less impressive later on compared to 12z.

[Damage In Tolland]

4 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

NAMs bring this in later tomorrow evening now wth

These always come in early 

[George001]

The Canadian is a great model, it should not be discounted. 

[weathafella]

31 minutes ago, George001 said:

The Canadian is a great model, it should not be discounted. 

lol….

[dryslot]

Mesos vs Globals.

[cleetussnow]

43 minutes ago, George001 said:

The Canadian is a great model, it should not be discounted. 

Mentioned also by Walt Drag in the NY Metro thread; he says trust it in these scenarios.  Also some say it is number 2 in verification recently. DonaldSutherland might have said that in fact. I was surprised by these endorsements. 

[CoastalWx]

I don’t think the Canadian is a great model based on what I’ve seen for years. Can it score an event? Sure, but a great model it is not.

[ScituateWX]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I don’t think the Canadian is a great model based on what I’ve seen for years. Can it score an event? Sure, but a great model it is not.

I’m still shoveling the snow and rebuilding from all the hurricanes it has showed over SNE over the years 

[dryslot]

GFS still sucks.

[HoarfrostHubb]

BOX going 2-4” here. Maybe a bit more. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Its 1-3", 2-4"..been apparent for awhile.

[JoeSnowBOS]

Broom to leaf blower snows incoming….


.

[PWMan]

1 minute ago, JoeSnowBOS said:

Broom to leaf blower snows incoming….


.

Better than sump-pump rains and storm surge.

[MuddyWx]

Looking forward to a couple inches of snow and then some cold to keep it around.. just want the wintery feel

[George001]

45 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I don’t think the Canadian is a great model based on what I’ve seen for years. Can it score an event? Sure, but a great model it is not.

It has a higher verification score than the gfs