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Monitoring some form of significant ( to be determined more precisely) impact winter storm, Jan 16/17th. Moderate seems to be the upper limit - for now

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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ORH_wxman
ORH_wxman

I just cleaned up this thread…what an embarrassment for some of you. Act like you’ve posted on the forums before and didn’t just get here from accuwx forums.   This is still a storm thread.

ORH_wxman
ORH_wxman

If people want to act like children and complain about every threat, they can do it elsewhere. There are still people who log on here to read about the meteorology and actual model discussion of a thr

ORH_wxman
ORH_wxman

It’s actually trended better since 00z but this forum has become an unreadable dumpster fire. 

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JoeSnowBOS

JoeSnowBOS

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NAM was good from about BOS N and W. Taints SE MA. Not sure about the warmth given that track though. Anyways we know it’s the nam so we’ll see what the others do.

Tainted for sure. MINOR no matter what happens. Hope to use my leaf blower if colder solution verifies otherwise just rain/snow shower mixing


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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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Interesting how persistent the RGEM has been ...  And if getting persnickety in that analysis, it's even been adding QPF in small increments, while continuing with the same general synoptic layout of this event.

It could not be anymore cut-and-dry case for being proven either right, or wrong.  If it verifies even above 80% of its panache, it's going to be an emphatic winner. 

Anyway, this 12z run... if we just bump it's QPF layout 20 or 30 mi SE, HFD-BED ends up with 6+".  It's high end advisory/low end warning snows.  It's certainly plausible that the QPF is right and it's too liberal warming the SE of that axis, anyway... I mean this antecedent arctic boundary apparently means business. 

The NAM is also some 70% of that QPF ... just estimating, while having a similar synoptic evolution.  Why for the QPF differences when the synoptics appear otherwise to be the same - some difference in physical make-up?  I dunno.   I'm leery of the NAM's NW bias at this range.  It's interesting, however ...that the RGEM is sort of trying to peer pressure the NAM into taking the same drug. Haha. 

I'll tell you though.. pure supposition - but maybe these higher resolution models are "understanding" the physical initial conditions better wrt to this newly arriving and intense arctic boundary.  It appears to slow down dramatically after arriving here... collocating with the existing thinkness gradient that extends ~ ATL -Va Capes to SE of Cape Cod.  That's going be an axis of explosive potential, to understate it..  It would not take very much jet mechanics at all to activate a low pressure along that zone, and given the efficiency sharpness of the frontal/thickness packing, the UVM circuitry will be made more proficient.  ...
I guess what I'm saying is I can see a valid argument for higher res models doing what they are doing.  Technically the Euro qualifies as a high res tool, as well.. which doesn't lend as much help to this idea. 

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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...I was also noticing that the final bifurcation of the western Canadian quasi SPV feature is actually taking place during today - so there may be a subtle modulation in what is really injected into the flow, being initialized into the grids today.

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WinterWolf

WinterWolf

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13 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Gfs still is not interested. My guess is some sort of a compromise between that and the mesos.

Funny thing is, now the Euro jumped on board, and the GFS is not on board any longer.  Lol.  But Who knows what the Euro does in a couple hrs?  

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STILL N OF PIKE

STILL N OF PIKE

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13 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Funny thing is, now the Euro jumped on board, and the GFS is not on board any longer.  Lol.  But Who knows what the Euro does in a couple hrs?  

It’s not that big of a difference thou ..euro being on board is like .3/10 of an inch QPF and low end advisory which I would gladly take

Gfs could easily nudge toward that direction 

I’d love to see something trend toward a bit more but a couple inches would be nice as well 

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WinterWolf

WinterWolf

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1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

It’s not that big of a difference thou ..euro being on board is like .3/10 of an inch QPF and low end advisory which I would gladly take

Gfs could easily nudge toward that direction 

I’d love to see something trend toward a bit more but a couple inches would be nice as well 

Oh ya, I understand that part. But it’s like they swapped places, that’s what I meant. 

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Snowcrazed71

Snowcrazed71

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49 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

...I was also noticing that the final bifurcation of the western Canadian quasi SPV feature is actually taking place during today - so there may be a subtle modulation in what is really injected into the flow, being initialized into the grids today.

 

52 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Solid advisory to low end warning event River East 

What in God's name are you talking about..lol

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TauntonBlizzard2013

TauntonBlizzard2013

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30 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

It’s not that big of a difference thou ..euro being on board is like .3/10 of an inch QPF and low end advisory which I would gladly take

Gfs could easily nudge toward that direction 

I’d love to see something trend toward a bit more but a couple inches would be nice as well 

I’ve pretty much removed myself from this discussion, because I’m tired of tracking crap, and 1-2” Of snow does nothing but mess up my commute Tuesday.

However, it’ll probably at least cover the grass if you’re into that type of thing 

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FXWX

FXWX

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Just now, Snowcrazed71 said:

I would love for you to be right, but I'm just not seeing 3-6... Let alone 4-8. 

I would keep it in the 1 to 3 or 2 to 4 inch range right now.  Would prefer to nudge it up if need be later than have to chop it back... 

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WxWatcher007

WxWatcher007

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18 minutes ago, FXWX said:

I would keep it in the 1 to 3 or 2 to 4 inch range right now.  Would prefer to nudge it up if need be later than have to chop it back... 

Totally agree. There’s a limit to how much this can trend imo. 

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