Jump to content

  • Member Statistics

    17,611
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    NH8550
    Newest Member
    NH8550
    Joined

Monitoring some form of significant ( to be determined more precisely) impact winter storm, Jan 16/17th. Moderate seems to be the upper limit - for now

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

 Share

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 1.3k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Days

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Days

Popular Posts

ORH_wxman
ORH_wxman

I just cleaned up this thread…what an embarrassment for some of you. Act like you’ve posted on the forums before and didn’t just get here from accuwx forums.   This is still a storm thread.

ORH_wxman
ORH_wxman

If people want to act like children and complain about every threat, they can do it elsewhere. There are still people who log on here to read about the meteorology and actual model discussion of a thr

ORH_wxman
ORH_wxman

It’s actually trended better since 00z but this forum has become an unreadable dumpster fire. 

Posted Images

JoeSnowBOS

JoeSnowBOS

Posted
Posted
NAM was good from about BOS N and W. Taints SE MA. Not sure about the warmth given that track though. Anyways we know it’s the nam so we’ll see what the others do.

Tainted for sure. MINOR no matter what happens. Hope to use my leaf blower if colder solution verifies otherwise just rain/snow shower mixing


.
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
  • Author
Posted

Interesting how persistent the RGEM has been ...  And if getting persnickety in that analysis, it's even been adding QPF in small increments, while continuing with the same general synoptic layout of this event.

It could not be anymore cut-and-dry case for being proven either right, or wrong.  If it verifies even above 80% of its panache, it's going to be an emphatic winner. 

Anyway, this 12z run... if we just bump it's QPF layout 20 or 30 mi SE, HFD-BED ends up with 6+".  It's high end advisory/low end warning snows.  It's certainly plausible that the QPF is right and it's too liberal warming the SE of that axis, anyway... I mean this antecedent arctic boundary apparently means business. 

The NAM is also some 70% of that QPF ... just estimating, while having a similar synoptic evolution.  Why for the QPF differences when the synoptics appear otherwise to be the same - some difference in physical make-up?  I dunno.   I'm leery of the NAM's NW bias at this range.  It's interesting, however ...that the RGEM is sort of trying to peer pressure the NAM into taking the same drug. Haha. 

I'll tell you though.. pure supposition - but maybe these higher resolution models are "understanding" the physical initial conditions better wrt to this newly arriving and intense arctic boundary.  It appears to slow down dramatically after arriving here... collocating with the existing thinkness gradient that extends ~ ATL -Va Capes to SE of Cape Cod.  That's going be an axis of explosive potential, to understate it..  It would not take very much jet mechanics at all to activate a low pressure along that zone, and given the efficiency sharpness of the frontal/thickness packing, the UVM circuitry will be made more proficient.  ...
I guess what I'm saying is I can see a valid argument for higher res models doing what they are doing.  Technically the Euro qualifies as a high res tool, as well.. which doesn't lend as much help to this idea. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
  • Author
Posted

...I was also noticing that the final bifurcation of the western Canadian quasi SPV feature is actually taking place during today - so there may be a subtle modulation in what is really injected into the flow, being initialized into the grids today.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
WinterWolf

WinterWolf

Posted
Posted
13 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Gfs still is not interested. My guess is some sort of a compromise between that and the mesos.

Funny thing is, now the Euro jumped on board, and the GFS is not on board any longer.  Lol.  But Who knows what the Euro does in a couple hrs?  

  • Weenie 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
STILL N OF PIKE

STILL N OF PIKE

Posted
Posted
13 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Funny thing is, now the Euro jumped on board, and the GFS is not on board any longer.  Lol.  But Who knows what the Euro does in a couple hrs?  

It’s not that big of a difference thou ..euro being on board is like .3/10 of an inch QPF and low end advisory which I would gladly take

Gfs could easily nudge toward that direction 

I’d love to see something trend toward a bit more but a couple inches would be nice as well 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
WinterWolf

WinterWolf

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

It’s not that big of a difference thou ..euro being on board is like .3/10 of an inch QPF and low end advisory which I would gladly take

Gfs could easily nudge toward that direction 

I’d love to see something trend toward a bit more but a couple inches would be nice as well 

Oh ya, I understand that part. But it’s like they swapped places, that’s what I meant. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Snowcrazed71

Snowcrazed71

Posted
Posted
49 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

...I was also noticing that the final bifurcation of the western Canadian quasi SPV feature is actually taking place during today - so there may be a subtle modulation in what is really injected into the flow, being initialized into the grids today.

 

52 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Solid advisory to low end warning event River East 

What in God's name are you talking about..lol

  • Haha 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites
TauntonBlizzard2013

TauntonBlizzard2013

Posted
Posted
30 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

It’s not that big of a difference thou ..euro being on board is like .3/10 of an inch QPF and low end advisory which I would gladly take

Gfs could easily nudge toward that direction 

I’d love to see something trend toward a bit more but a couple inches would be nice as well 

I’ve pretty much removed myself from this discussion, because I’m tired of tracking crap, and 1-2” Of snow does nothing but mess up my commute Tuesday.

However, it’ll probably at least cover the grass if you’re into that type of thing 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
FXWX

FXWX

Posted
Posted
Just now, Snowcrazed71 said:

I would love for you to be right, but I'm just not seeing 3-6... Let alone 4-8. 

I would keep it in the 1 to 3 or 2 to 4 inch range right now.  Would prefer to nudge it up if need be later than have to chop it back... 

  • Like 2
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share
Go to topic listing

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...