Monitoring some form of significant ( to be determined more precisely) impact winter storm, Jan 16/17th. Moderate seems to be the upper limit - for now

[weathafella]

I can understand he frustration with posters behaving like babies but for me I consider that time to move to other endeavors.  But it sucks when you are trying for discussion and the usual suspects chime in forget it or everything sucks and I wish we all died….

[Prismshine Productions]

Baby steps...

Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk

[Damage In Tolland]

Struggle bus for the Euro in this one . Just keeps coming NW now.

[UnitedWx]

1 hour ago, WinterWolf said:

Mods need to start cleaning it up, and enforcing a no BS policy.  

I made a comment on it this morning... and for some reason it was removed?? No idea,  but lots of others have said the same thing today so... Weather wise, I for one don't think this coming week is decided by any means, just look at the ensembles adjusting themselves. Also if we only get a  region wide 2 inches, whats wrong with that? IMO Too many here who don't learn the weather history of their areas

[Sn0waddict]

HRRR looked closer to the NAM then it did the GFS, which probably means nothing.

[BombsAway1288]

4 minutes ago, Sn0waddict said:

HRRR looked closer to the NAM then it did the GFS, which probably means nothing.

You’re right, it doesn’t really mean anything. HRRR really shouldn’t be used outside of 24 hrs or even 12-18 hours.

It’s great for picking up where heavy bands will setup in an ongoing coastal, not so much a medium range synoptic system

[40/70 Benchmark]

First Call

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2024/01/first-call-for-light-snows-tuesday.html

[Snowcrazed71]

32 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

First Call

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2024/01/first-call-for-light-snows-tuesday.html

I will gladly take one to 1-3".... With the cold week ahead and be nice to have it on the ground and hopefully set the stage for something bigger at the end of the week

[MJO812]

Wtf

[CCHurricane]

18 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Wtf

unfortunately for southern spots, those precip types are incorrect. Soundings indicate much warmer temps. 

[MJO812]

Just now, CCHurricane said:

unfortunately for southern spots, those precip types are incorrect. Soundings indicate much warmer temps. 

Icon is similiar

[BombsAway1288]

9 minutes ago, CCHurricane said:

unfortunately for southern spots, those precip types are incorrect. Soundings indicate much warmer temps. 

A low riding over the cape will do that even with an arctic airmass behind it 

[weatherwiz]

The GFS seems clueless with this boundary

[weatherwiz]

ptype maps are about as garbage as snow maps

[Snowcrazed71]

6 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

The GFS seems clueless with this boundary

Did it even have the storm?

[RDRY]

3 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

Did it even have the storm?

It has an indication of a thought of a strung-out mess of a storm.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

10 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

The GFS seems clueless with this boundary

It keeps ticking though. 

[weatherwiz]

Just now, Snowcrazed71 said:

Did it even have the storm?

I know there's been alot of posts with the "storm vs. no storm" but I don't really think that is the case. The GFS has always had something, its just a matter of where the baroclinic zone resides. There certainly will be a wave of low pressure which develops within the South which moves off the Southeast coast and then rides northeast along the zone. If that zone is further northwest, we increase the potential for snow. If it is further southeast then we decrease the chance. 

But I think there are other factors as well. This is now 3 winters in a row we've seen these significant Arctic blasts penetrate deep into the South with potential for some significant wintry precipitation within the South. At least from my experience the GFS has done handled these well, particularly with precipitation forming along it. The NAM seems to have a better handle. 

Not sure how much of an influence this has on things but the GFS also tends to get way too aggressive with the cold (at least MOS does). So it is possible this is one reason why the GFS seems to have a SE bias in these situations. 

[CoastalWx]

We  Canadian. 

[weatherwiz]

2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

It keeps ticking though. 

Yeah I think it will eventually tune into a scenario where it paints us with widespread at least light snows and accumulating. Still can't rule out some low-end advisory at least somewhere in the region. 

[Snowcrazed71]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

We  Canadian. 

Is it out already? How's it looking?

[Thunderblizzard]

That's a solid bump on the CMC.

[jaf]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

First Call

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2024/01/first-call-for-light-snows-tuesday.html

 

I'd take that at this point

[WinterWolf]

8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

We  Canadian. 

But does it have a clue? 

[MJO812]

Just now, WinterWolf said:

But does it have a clue? 

All the models have came west

[Snowcrazed71]

Just now, WinterWolf said:

But does it have a clue? 

What does it even show?

[H2Otown_WX]

7 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

Is it out already? How's it looking?

Like a 3-6 type deal with maybe a little more in the Worcester Hills and southern NH

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Let’s get the euro on board 

[MJO812]

Gefs west

[WinterWolf]

5 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Gefs west

That’s a good sign.