Monitoring some form of significant ( to be determined more precisely) impact winter storm, Jan 16/17th. Moderate seems to be the upper limit - for now

[weathafella]

I can understand he frustration with posters behaving like babies but for me I consider that time to move to other endeavors.  But it sucks when you are trying for discussion and the usual suspects chime in forget it or everything sucks and I wish we all died….

[Prismshine Productions]

Baby steps...

Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk

[Damage In Tolland]

Struggle bus for the Euro in this one . Just keeps coming NW now.

[UnitedWx]

  On 1/14/2024 at 12:07 AM, WinterWolf said:

Mods need to start cleaning it up, and enforcing a no BS policy.  

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I made a comment on it this morning... and for some reason it was removed?? No idea,  but lots of others have said the same thing today so... Weather wise, I for one don't think this coming week is decided by any means, just look at the ensembles adjusting themselves. Also if we only get a  region wide 2 inches, whats wrong with that? IMO Too many here who don't learn the weather history of their areas

[Sn0waddict]

HRRR looked closer to the NAM then it did the GFS, which probably means nothing.

[BombsAway1288]

  On 1/14/2024 at 1:56 AM, Sn0waddict said:

HRRR looked closer to the NAM then it did the GFS, which probably means nothing.

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You’re right, it doesn’t really mean anything. HRRR really shouldn’t be used outside of 24 hrs or even 12-18 hours.

It’s great for picking up where heavy bands will setup in an ongoing coastal, not so much a medium range synoptic system

[40/70 Benchmark]

First Call

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2024/01/first-call-for-light-snows-tuesday.html

[Snowcrazed71]

  On 1/14/2024 at 2:14 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

First Call

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2024/01/first-call-for-light-snows-tuesday.html

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I will gladly take one to 1-3".... With the cold week ahead and be nice to have it on the ground and hopefully set the stage for something bigger at the end of the week

[MJO812]

Wtf

[CCHurricane]

  On 1/14/2024 at 3:10 AM, MJO812 said:

Wtf

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unfortunately for southern spots, those precip types are incorrect. Soundings indicate much warmer temps. 

[MJO812]

  On 1/14/2024 at 3:30 AM, CCHurricane said:

unfortunately for southern spots, those precip types are incorrect. Soundings indicate much warmer temps. 

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Icon is similiar

[BombsAway1288]

  On 1/14/2024 at 3:30 AM, CCHurricane said:

unfortunately for southern spots, those precip types are incorrect. Soundings indicate much warmer temps. 

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A low riding over the cape will do that even with an arctic airmass behind it 

[weatherwiz]

The GFS seems clueless with this boundary

[weatherwiz]

ptype maps are about as garbage as snow maps

[Snowcrazed71]

  On 1/14/2024 at 3:46 AM, weatherwiz said:

The GFS seems clueless with this boundary

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Did it even have the storm?

[RDRY]

  On 1/14/2024 at 3:53 AM, Snowcrazed71 said:

Did it even have the storm?

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It has an indication of a thought of a strung-out mess of a storm.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

  On 1/14/2024 at 3:46 AM, weatherwiz said:

The GFS seems clueless with this boundary

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It keeps ticking though. 

[weatherwiz]

  On 1/14/2024 at 3:53 AM, Snowcrazed71 said:

Did it even have the storm?

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I know there's been alot of posts with the "storm vs. no storm" but I don't really think that is the case. The GFS has always had something, its just a matter of where the baroclinic zone resides. There certainly will be a wave of low pressure which develops within the South which moves off the Southeast coast and then rides northeast along the zone. If that zone is further northwest, we increase the potential for snow. If it is further southeast then we decrease the chance. 

But I think there are other factors as well. This is now 3 winters in a row we've seen these significant Arctic blasts penetrate deep into the South with potential for some significant wintry precipitation within the South. At least from my experience the GFS has done handled these well, particularly with precipitation forming along it. The NAM seems to have a better handle. 

Not sure how much of an influence this has on things but the GFS also tends to get way too aggressive with the cold (at least MOS does). So it is possible this is one reason why the GFS seems to have a SE bias in these situations. 

[CoastalWx]

We  Canadian. 

[weatherwiz]

  On 1/14/2024 at 3:58 AM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

It keeps ticking though. 

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Yeah I think it will eventually tune into a scenario where it paints us with widespread at least light snows and accumulating. Still can't rule out some low-end advisory at least somewhere in the region. 

[Snowcrazed71]

  On 1/14/2024 at 4:01 AM, CoastalWx said:

We  Canadian. 

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Is it out already? How's it looking?

[Thunderblizzard]

That's a solid bump on the CMC.

[jaf]

  On 1/14/2024 at 2:14 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

First Call

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2024/01/first-call-for-light-snows-tuesday.html

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I'd take that at this point

[WinterWolf]

  On 1/14/2024 at 4:01 AM, CoastalWx said:

We  Canadian. 

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But does it have a clue? 

[MJO812]

  On 1/14/2024 at 4:10 AM, WinterWolf said:

But does it have a clue? 

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All the models have came west

[Snowcrazed71]

  On 1/14/2024 at 4:10 AM, WinterWolf said:

But does it have a clue? 

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What does it even show?

[H2Otown_WX]

  On 1/14/2024 at 4:03 AM, Snowcrazed71 said:

Is it out already? How's it looking?

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Like a 3-6 type deal with maybe a little more in the Worcester Hills and southern NH

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Let’s get the euro on board 

[MJO812]

Gefs west

[WinterWolf]

  On 1/14/2024 at 4:18 AM, MJO812 said:

Gefs west

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That’s a good sign.