Monitoring some form of significant ( to be determined more precisely) impact winter storm, Jan 16/17th. Moderate seems to be the upper limit - for now

[Briz600]

54 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Reggie is also amped 

This is what we are calling amped these days?

[moneypitmike]

53 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I just cleaned up this thread…what an embarrassment for some of you. Act like you’ve posted on the forums before and didn’t just get here from accuwx forums.

 

This is still a storm thread. If you have no interest in this event, then don’t post in here again. Go to the banter thread. That’s what it’s for. 

LOL--Will got up on the wrong side of bed this morning. 

We keep watching.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

I’d say so.

Days ago when globals had this hitting hard, there appeared to be a second Short wave dropping thru Tenn valley that interacted and sort of pulled the lead wave from otherwise going out to sea. 
 

is the trough orientation/ flow on east coast not as conducive for that or has the short wave timing changed

[weatherwiz]

I wouldn't be so quick to totally write the NAM off just yet. One major difference between the NAM/GFS is where the placement of the Arctic front and where the baroclinic zone resides. Models can really struggle with this aspect. If you look at the NAM (the Euro is somewhat closer to the NAM than GFS I think) where the baroclinic zone is positioned, combined with the dynamics would yield potential for cyclogenesis and low pressure to move north and east off the coast. 

I know there are some models that are amped, but I think those models are a bit overdone. I don't see much in the way of room for this to become amped, however, Tuesday into Wednesday could be a bit interesting as that second shortwave which moves through looks to be more amped and have room to be more amped.

One of the keys with these Arctic boundaries is where the barolcinic zone resides which models can really struggle with. There is even differences with the swath of wintry precipitation in the South but if a sfc low can spawn more quickly that is something to watch. 

Ultimately, the window is very small for a bigger event, but region wide light snows are certainly on the table. 

[ORH_wxman]

5 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

LOL--Will got up on the wrong side of bed this morning. 

We keep watching.

No I’m actually in a great mood today…3 day weekend, lol. 
 

But it’s getting toward mid-January now…preseason is long over. People can leave this thread if they are not interested in this event any longer. Go to banter for the “winter sucks” talk. 

[JoeSnowBOS]

Good stuff…..my broom is ready just in case!


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[George001]

Gfs is a whiff for this threat but look at what it’s doing for the 20th….

[Sn0waddict]

4 minutes ago, George001 said:

Gfs is a whiff for this threat but look at what it’s doing for the 20th….

Would gladly sacrifice this for what is has coming on the 20th

[cleetussnow]

5 minutes ago, George001 said:

Gfs is a whiff for this threat but look at what it’s doing for the 20th….

Back to the bat cave Robin (i.e. the other thread).

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Any snow is good snow I guess. I’m out, have a good day folks 

[Patrick-02540]

6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

No I’m actually in a great mood today…3 day weekend, lol. 
 

But it’s getting toward mid-January now…preseason is long over. People can leave this thread if they are not interested in this event any longer. Go to banter for the “winter sucks” talk. 

Maybe a permanent thread entitled "Winter Sucks and I Need Negative Attention" pinned at the top would help alleviate a lot of these posts.  

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

9 minutes ago, Sn0waddict said:

Would gladly sacrifice this for what is has coming on the 20th

Scooter is sacrificing much more for us. 

[weathafella]

7 minutes ago, Patrick-02540 said:

Maybe a permanent thread entitled "Winter Sucks and I Need Negative Attention" pinned at the top would help alleviate a lot of these posts.  

It’s a natural progression from the early/pre winter panic threads.

[Damage In Tolland]

Canadian looks good too 

[Typhoon Tip]

Will   I dunno, do you want to just merge this into the 20th?  Originally I wanted to keep these separate but the two events are  3 days apart and the temptation is maybe too much to ask ...  Both events are in fact nested in the same signal. 

The con is that they are distinctly different.  The 17th is off the boards, and the 20th,... being a subsume phase potential and so forth ( which the 17th bears no likeness to), it's not apples to apples. 

But maybe for convenience we can change the title to 'monitoring 2 potential impactors in close timing' or something?

 

[ORH_wxman]

Ukie still has a solid advisory snowfall over a large part of New England. Guess we’ll see if Euro wants to come back. 

[SnowGoose69]

49 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Does Reggie have the same amp’d bias of nam at long range 

It did back when it was only ran out to 54 but I have found in the last few years thats less the case anymore....usually if the NAM has a semi wacky solution like it did at 12Z the RGEM will come out and look nothing like it...the fact they're both somewhat similar is interesting

[Typhoon Tip]

1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said:

It did back when it was only ran out to 54 but I have found in the last few years thats less the case anymore....usually if the NAM has a semi wacky solution like it did at 12Z the RGEM will come out and look nothing like it...the fact they're both somewhat similar is interesting

yeah.. agreed. Adding to this 'interest,' the 12z Reginald was a reasonably good continuity from the 06z ...

[mahk_webstah]

Seems like this is becoming a light  to moderate event, followed by a much more significant storm. A common winter sequence in a good pattern.  Sounds good. We need some snow fast to cover up the impending ice-skating rinks that are formed across my fields and paths.

[UnitedWx]

1 hour ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Gfs still whiffs but did take a step nw with a shaper vort and tick deeper trough.

It's also showing more interest in the end of the week

[Typhoon Tip]

12 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

Seems like this is becoming a light  to moderate event, followed by a much more significant storm. A common winter sequence in a good pattern.  Sounds good. We need some snow fast to cover up the impending ice-skating rinks that are formed across my fields and paths.

yeah I mean I did set the ceiling on this to be moderate for a reason. At the time ...we're (unfortunate to higher end proficiency) modeling a fast velocity soaked pattern. 

I asked Will if we should go ahead and switch the title of this thread to include both event - they are sort of indirectly effecting, because the SPV that subsumes in the 20th is in fact part of the suppression of this leading system.  Complex -

[JoeSnowBOS]

Seems like this is becoming a light  to moderate event, followed by a much more significant storm. A common winter sequence in a good pattern.  Sounds good. We need some snow fast to cover up the impending ice-skating rinks that are formed across my fields and paths.

Moderate? I would say non event to dustings


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[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

No snow for Joe?

[JoeSnowBOS]

No snow for Joe?

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[H2Otown_WX]

So the Euro sucked that much?

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, H2Otown_WX said:

So the Euro sucked that much?

Yep mood flakes

[BuildingScienceWx]

6 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Yep mood flakes

I thought it was a decent improvement, but that doesn't mean much considering where we were.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Just now, BuildingScienceWx said:

I thought it was a decent improvement, but that doesn't mean much considering where we were.

End result is still C-1

[MJO812]

Just now, BuildingScienceWx said:

I thought it was a decent improvement, but that doesn't mean much considering where we were.

Yep still some time for changes 

[JoeSnowBOS]

Yep still some time for changes 

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