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Monitoring some form of significant ( to be determined more precisely) impact winter storm, Jan 16/17th. Moderate seems to be the upper limit - for now


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We’ve seen storms move hundreds of miles NW inside of 2 days, never mind 4. The models always go back and forth, it was NW, now it’s SE, and it will probably go back NW. Will it go back to the full blown blizzard we saw a couple days ago on that gfs run? Doubt it, but it’s really not far from being a solid moderate event. I’d rather be on the southern edge rooting for a storm to come north than the other way around.

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2 minutes ago, radarman said:

IMO from the very beginning this has been a quick hit, blow the fluff off your car in 10 seconds with a leafblower, kind of beautiful sparkly small January event that we don't get any more.

Yeah , I don’t get all the consternation and hand wringing on this missing. From some good posters in some cases. 

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1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Yeah , I don’t get all the consternation and hand wringing on this missing. From some good posters in some cases. 

The only thing I can think of is that they consider even that scenario a loss, because one euro run got into the sauce and tore a hole in the atmosphere like 3 or 4 days ago.

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I don’t want to be doom and gloom, but I feel like we are slip, slip, sliding into the tenor of our recent shit seasons. Sure I had about 6” that vaporized two days later, however, a more accurate depiction of this season thus far is ‘Bout 3” of standing water and mud in the yard and close to 50 degrees. Proof is in the IMBY reality and it’s ugly. It seems like punting entire winter months has become the norm. Like pulling FN teeth to get flakes in the air during peak winter climo. 

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8 minutes ago, Kitz Craver said:

I don’t want to be doom and gloom, but I feel like we are slip, slip, sliding into the tenor of our recent shit seasons. Sure I had about 6” that vaporized two days later, however, a more accurate depiction of this season thus far is ‘Bout 3” of standing water and mud in the yard and close to 50 degrees. Proof is in the IMBY reality and it’s ugly. It seems like punting entire winter months has become the norm. Like pulling FN teeth to get flakes in the air during peak winter climo. 

Nobody is punting anything…stay calm. At least you’re tracking something, and theres a chance you may see some snow.  That’s a positive.  Now carry on. 

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2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Nobody is punting anything…stay calm. At least you’re tracking something, and theres a chance you may see some snow.  That’s a positive.  Now carry on. 

I get that, but if these two(16-17, 19,20) fail, many have said it’s time to be a little concerned about the season as a whole. We’ll see. 

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1 minute ago, Kitz Craver said:

I get that, but if these two(16-17, 19,20) fail, many have said it’s time to be a little concerned about the season as a whole. We’ll see. 

I would agree with your concerns. I think we all have that concern in the back of our minds, and although last year completely shit the bed..... This year is different in a lot of ways. Even if by some chance, Tuesday and next Friday, Saturday turns out nothing, I'm still not giving up on the season. There is still 10 more days to January after that and all of February, and contrary to what people say about March, we can get a good amount of snow in March. Sun angles and things like that don't bother me at all. Keep your chin up buttercup. All will be okay

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I like the comments that are like pep talks , like it’s a team sport where a good mind set helps you win . It’s motivational and sorta funny to me at same time . It is the best mind set / strategy for dealing with life , however with weather I generally defer to probabilities , stats and remove emotion  

12z or 0z tonite is when you want to see a nice strong change in the 16/17’th set up that pulls the energy tighter toward us 

 

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Just now, UnitedWx said:

17 inches here this season so far,  not terrible. After living here several years, I still don't know the average snowfall for Westfield MA... At least we're tracking something and the pattern certainly looks better in general than last season 

There it is. Folks are ornery because Thursday night at 0z it looked very nice on the 0z runs for this(folks were thinking 6 plus easy), and the 19th and 20th too. Then yesterday the rug got pulled, and the usual whiners are all jumping.  As you said, let’s see how things evolve after this POS today moves out?  I’m actually glad we’re tracking.  

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6 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

There it is. Folks are ornery because Thursday night at 0z it looked very nice on the 0z runs for this(folks were thinking 6 plus easy), and the 19th and 20th too. Then yesterday the rug got pulled, and the usual whiners are all jumping.  As you said, let’s see how things evolve after this POS today moves out?  I’m actually glad we’re tracking.  

Usual whiners as in Ray, Scooter?

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9 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

I like the comments that are like pep talks , like it’s a team sport where a good mind set helps you win . It’s motivational and sorta funny to me at same time . It is the best mind set / strategy for dealing with life , however with weather I generally defer to probabilities , stats and remove emotion  

12z or 0z tonite is when you want to see a nice strong change in the 16/17’th set up that pulls the energy tighter toward us 

 

A couple more bad losses and we may have to fire Ray.

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