Monitoring some form of significant ( to be determined more precisely) impact winter storm, Jan 16/17th. Moderate seems to be the upper limit - for now

[Thunderblizzard]

UKMET followed the trend too, but it was ridiculously amped earlier... may be the best case scenario now.

[H2Otown_WX]

25 minutes ago, Sandstorm94 said:

Once we get the screamer out of here we can properly track, we hold serve. It is just the 12th of January, we got 7 weeks left

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It should be a little more but Ray is going with Morch

[CoastalWx]

1 hour ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

We tried to tell em. 

All you do is bitch though. Let’s get a cutter for Conway. 

[CoastalWx]

We’ll see what the euro says. But I’ll stand by 2-4+ here for now.

[78Blizzard]

Near the end of that GFS run showed something we haven't seen much of lately - clippers.

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

All you do is bitch though. Let’s get a cutter for Conway. 

He’s got only one tune…but he plays it over and over. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 hour ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

I don't remember as much rain in the 80's despite the dearth of snow.

Not as much but the cutter, cold/dry, cutter is reminiscent. 

[SnowGoose69]

The GFS did not take long to look totally different than literally every other model with an EC storm lol....through the UKIE with just the Euro to go its basically the only model lacking any of that precip associated with the vort getting north of the MA...that said the GEPS sorta does say the RGEM/CMC are out to lunch on that idea more or less.  I have not seen a ton of instances though in recent years where the RGEM/NAM being sort of similar at 84 has led to a solution not somewhat close to the idea...its usually 80-20 the NAM is different than the RGEM at that range

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

All you do is bitch though. Let’s get a cutter for Conway. 

Meh, I feel like I’ve been pretty realistic here. Last weekend was the first real snow event in 2 years.

If we miss this and the 20th, it’s fair to wonder where this season is going.

[CoastalWx]

3 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Meh, I feel like I’ve been pretty realistic here. Last weekend was the first real snow event in 2 years.

If we miss this and the 20th, it’s fair to wonder where this season is going.

You bitch every event. Time to start hoping for a cutter.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

You bitch every event. Time to start hoping for a cutter.

I’d rather no precipitation between now and April over more rain. 

[dmcginvt]

[dmcginvt]

I just went outside, it;s not snowing at all

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Euro is nothing, maybe an inch for the outer cape 

[weathafella]

People got all giddy from one good model suite maybe 2 days ago.  Then the rug got pulled and everyone's in a bad mood again.  Keep the snow jones in your back pocket until it has a better chance of reality.  Also, while the 16th probability has gone down, it's not dead yet.  Same for the 20th.

[Torch Tiger]

46 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Euro is nothing, maybe an inch for the outer cape 

hopefully correct

[The 4 Seasons]

53 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

hopefully correct

Why 

[Snowcrazed71]

9 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

Why 

Don't bother asking .... He just likes to poke and prod until someone responds to him. 

[Prismshine Productions]

06z GEFS ticked back more favorable for both the 17th and 20th, small improvement but a start

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[Damage In Tolland]

On track for a solid 3-6” type event. Pretty easy forecast 

[backedgeapproaching]

7 hours ago, Sandstorm94 said:

Once we get the screamer out of here we can properly track, we hold serve. It is just the 12th of January, we got 7 weeks left

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That is probbaly what your used to. But March has had the highest average snowfall the past 10 years at my spot. Im in SVT too. Even in Brattleboro winter isn't over in FEB normally.

[ORH_wxman]

00z suite all trended the wrong direction. So that’s basically putting a fork in anything sizeable. There’s still a realistic chance for an advisory event but we’re gonna need improvement at 12z today. 

Need that trailing vort to come in a bit more consolidated…otherwise the trough stays too rounded despite being in a climatologically good position  

 

[kdxken]

26 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

On track for a solid 3-6” type event. Pretty easy forecast 

When is the ice storm?

[Kitz Craver]

Fugly runs. She gone.

[Damage In Tolland]

7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

00z suite all trended the wrong direction. So that’s basically putting a fork in anything sizeable. There’s still a realistic chance for an advisory event but we’re gonna need improvement at 12z today. 

Need that trailing vort to come in a bit more consolidated…otherwise the trough stays too rounded despite being in a climatologically good position  

 

Reggie GGEM Nam and GEFS all look fine . 3-6”

[Damage In Tolland]

2 hours ago, wdrag said:

Keep looking and monitoring:  I,   as does WPC (their products) agree with posters... the snow is coming.  RGEM-CMC consistency should be monitored. Axis is variable. Latest RGEM - 06z/13 version, I sort of like. Looks like 1-4" I95 west and has ice near the I95 corridor. NAM seems too warm=north.

I did check the NAM and a banding signal is evident so that contributes to the powdery potential.  

How this plays?  For now, I think this is a powdery interior hazardous modest impact event on previously frozen ground (4P-Sunday-Tuesday) with decent snow ratios, higher than 10 to 1 for the interior (NOT the WET 7 to 1 ratios).  I can see ice or rain for I95 or east of I95 so for myself in NYC CP, I'll stick with for 1-3" by sunrise Wednesday. Confidence a little below average on what happens NYC (but a little above average interior).  I think staying conservative in NYC is best for now and just monitor the modeling... for me I need the GGEM, RGEM on board for this to happen.

fwiw...if interested see January thread for the Sunday cold frontal passage snow squall event that seems to be looming for our NYC suibforum

 

[MJO812]

Morning . What awful trends overnight. If we don't see any improvements today them we can throw in the towel. 

Is the euro going to score a cup being by itself ? Wow

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

4 hours ago, The 4 Seasons said:

Why 

Who cares

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Morning . What awful trends overnight. If we don't see any improvements today them we can throw in the towel. 

Is the euro going to score a cup being by itself ? Wow

6z nam rains the coast lol

[Damage In Tolland]

Some of these posters never learn. These always come back NW. Just sit back and relax. Snow is coming.