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Monitoring some form of significant ( to be determined more precisely) impact winter storm, Jan 16/17th. Moderate seems to be the upper limit - for now


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6 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said:

Getting back to that talk earlier about cutters not moving for 20 runs - they do move, but while that last cutter may have moved here and there during those runs, it still ended up in almost the same spot at go time as the GFS showed 17 runs earlier.  That was all the archive would allow me to backtrack.  But for our coastal storms, how many times do we get 17 runs that show the storm position at go time in almost the same position as the one 17 runs earlier?

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_2.png

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_18.png

This is basically what I was referencing 

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4 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Icon is unbelievably weak sauce 

If the ICON showed a bomb instead of the widespread light 2-4”, would it move the needle for you?

ICON is a model where if it hits good, it’s a crappy model so don’t trust it.  If it shows a less than desired outcome, it’s probably correct.

 

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2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I have 19.5" and I average over 60", which I haven't sniffed in 6 years, first of all...second, I need it to snow near the coast, too.

A HECS is a HECS, was a great thread the needle job in an otherwise strong Nino cutter city winter 

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6 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

It's disgusting 

If El nino isn't going to help us then what ?

It's not going to get better, on average, is it? 

Last year was Newports 4th worst year on record for snowfall. Any significant event and you beat it. That's the thing: it's the hope that kills you. 

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