Monitoring some form of significant ( to be determined more precisely) impact winter storm, Jan 16/17th. Moderate seems to be the upper limit - for now

[CoastalWx]

Tippy flow compression down south, but a ridge axis on west coast isn't exactly your whiff look.

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Tippy flow compression down south, but a ridge axis on west coast isn't exactly your whiff look.

Yeah the longwave synoptics aren’t favorable for a wide right whiff…it’s all about how much compression there is to keep it from moving further west. The compression is admittedly strong but we’ve seen these come back west pretty strongly before. 

[Henry's Weather]

CMC is a more favorable look

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah the longwave synoptics aren’t favorable for a wide right whiff…it’s all about how much compression there is to keep it from moving further west. The compression is admittedly strong but we’ve seen these come back west pretty strongly before. 

Then there is the CMC. We hold the course.

[ORH_wxman]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Then there is the CMC. We hold the course.

Yep. Don’t see any major red flags at the moment other than compression but the synoptics are working in our favor for once to overcome a negative variable. Hopefully we can bring this one home in the next few cycles. 

[brooklynwx99]

the GFS still isn't really like the ECMWF. the evolution is the same as the 00/06z runs, but it's just less amped. doesn't do what the ECWMF does with the trough

[dryslot]

Just sit back and relax, This ones coming.....

[weathafella]

I think it’s way too premature to toss this.  GFS actually brings qpf well west and kind of shows a double barreled strung out structure.  Having cmc as the most robust of the 12z suite so far does not give me warm amd fuzzies but even 108+ hours out this system is not at all able to be tossed or accepted.  

[tamarack]

11 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yep. Don’t see any major red flags at the moment other than compression but the synoptics are working in our favor for once to overcome a negative variable. Hopefully we can bring this one home in the next few cycles. 

My hope is for some snow that the grandkids in SNJ can play in.  The only accumulating snow they've seen since 2021-22 led to needing a short tow in Jay as they headed back south following an 8-day visit here.

[Ginx snewx]

Beware the horse just sayin,  Cowboys. 

[UnitedWx]

Don't like it now..  wait until 18Z,  it will likely change. Even better 12Z tomorrow once the cutter does its thing 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

9 minutes ago, UnitedWx said:

Don't like it now..  wait until 18Z,  it will likely change. Even better 12Z tomorrow once the cutter does its thing 

The cutter has been well modeled, I don’t think there is much influence there that’s going to chance things 

[Damage In Tolland]

22 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Beware the horse just sayin,  Cowboys. 

 

[SnowGoose69]

44 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

the GFS still isn't really like the ECMWF. the evolution is the same as the 00/06z runs, but it's just less amped. doesn't do what the ECWMF does with the trough

This was usual GFS southern stream heavy event shenanigans I think...the track or just whole organization to me should have been more NW than the Op had

[40/70 Benchmark]

I'll take the UK.

[SnowGoose69]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'll take the UK.

It schooled every model on the MW storm today from 3-4 days out....had ORD getting sort of shafted and they sure are going to

[Spanks45]

This system has the ebb and flow vibe of old....in the next 24-36 hrs should at least confirm a system then we can start talking accumulations... hopefully 

[NoCORH4L]

Gone. Won't take a miracle to bring it back, but for now .... 

[UnitedWx]

27 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

The cutter has been well modeled, I don’t think there is much influence there that’s going to chance things 

I mean regarding the 16th. I don't think we'll see what's really going to happen until it runs through our area

[weathafella]

11 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'll take the UK.

The heavy rain it gives you?

[CoastalWx]

4 minutes ago, weathafella said:

The heavy rain it gives you?

3-4" then rain I guess.

[H2Otown_WX]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Then there is the CMC. We hold the course.

It jackpots Iceberg and I so no

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

8 minutes ago, weathafella said:

The heavy rain it gives you?

Yeah lol, it’s wet 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

GEPS with a big jump SE and weak interesting  considering the op look… 

[WinterWolf]

Lol Everything is all over the place…

[Hazey]

Needs to get inside 3 days before we can get a good handle on it. Until then, it's follow the bouncing ball. 

[ORH_wxman]

GEFS remain pretty bullish

 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Hadley cell is all lubed up 

[Typhoon Tip]

44 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

This was usual GFS southern stream heavy event shenanigans I think...the track or just whole organization to me should have been more NW than the Op had

same philosophy - for now...

I mean, even with 15 or so % of the momentum appeal being less on this run, the model is placing it's low outside the cross hairs of either exit regions of the jet core, which is still impressive enough and torpedoing by to the NW ... 

...preeeetty sure it did that just because it's trolling us lol.   j/k.  seriously though

[qg_omega]

She’s gone