Monitoring some form of significant ( to be determined more precisely) impact winter storm, Jan 16/17th. Moderate seems to be the upper limit - for now

[WinterWolf]

2 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

So is this the first real win and good showing from the reggie since the Jan 26-27 2015 score that everyone likes to quote as the last time it was "good"? Storm hasnt played out yet but as far as i can tell the RGEM has been locked for days barely waffling. 

It did real well that whole blitz in ‘15, but then it shat the bed pretty much since. Although this year, so far it seems to be sniffing out trends decently…so maybe. 

[Greg]

3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

It’s lead the way all winter . Including the screamers. No idea why it’s been bashed 

I would have been rain the last storm if it was correct.

[WxWatcher007]

Introducing ZR even if it’s a little changes the impact down here. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

19 minutes ago, WeatherX said:

More snow for most too, nice to see.

 

 

Same corridor that cleaned up last weekend.

[Greg]

[WeatherX]

Same corridor that cleaned up last weekend.

Yup, Deja Vu all over again.


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[Torch Tiger]

Hopefully Reggie wins, nice track for many.  

[Spaizzo]

Yup, Deja Vu all over again.


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The jacks tend to move closer to the event. Even if we are hours from start


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[WeatherX]

The jacks tend to move closer to the event. Even if we are hours from start


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Makes sense though right? Models narrowing the playing field down to the favored locations. It is interesting though that it appears those who cleaned up last storm will do so again with totally different atmospheric conditions.


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[moneypitmike]

3 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

All winter it’s rocked 

It renders relevant every 3-4 years.

[ineedsnow]

18z NAM juicing up

[dryslot]

18z Nam, Another tic or two NW a bit warmer as well, SLP over ACK.

[weathafella]

That’s a pelting for most in sne on the 18z NAM.

[ineedsnow]

1 minute ago, weathafella said:

That’s a pelting for most in sne on the 18z NAM.

looks like mostly zr to me with maybe some sleet mixed in south of the pike

[ORH_wxman]

3 minutes ago, weathafella said:

That’s a pelting for most in sne on the 18z NAM.

Yeah sleet gets well into interior but that’s a good shot of snow before that happens. Thinking 3-5” with some spot 6”+ is a good call outside of 495….prob more like 2-4” for the 128 belt. 

[ineedsnow]

[weathafella]

1 minute ago, ineedsnow said:

looks like mostly zr to me with maybe some sleet mixed in south of the pike

Lower levels look like sleet but actually upon further review most of the meat is snow with the initial push.   

[weathafella]

1 minute ago, ineedsnow said:

Tossed. 

[moneypitmike]

6 minutes ago, dryslot said:

18z Nam, Another tic or two NW a bit warmer as well, SLP over ACK.

Taint to ORH and beyond.

[dryslot]

2 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

Taint to ORH and beyond.

South coast and cape are no bueno

[Sn0waddict]

3k looks like 3-4 inches down here before the transition. I would take that.

[ineedsnow]

2 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Tossed. 

looking at soundings it would be close south of 84

[ORH_wxman]

3k isn’t as warm as the 12k. Has a nice stripe of snow from like Danbury to Kevin to ORH to Ray. 

[Damage In Tolland]

There was a storm.. I know Will would remember.. Between 2001-2004 .. Walt was on the desk that  day and I think it was a Saturday and pretty sure in January. All along leading up to it looked like snow with WSW up. That morning Walt noticed warming aloft and said there’d be little snow south of pike. And it turned out he was exactly right. We started as ZR and it ended up a pretty good icestorm locally. I am wondering if there are any similarities to this one?

[The 4 Seasons]

Final call. We bumped up 1-2" across the board. Emphasizing sleet/zr mix at the end. 

Morning commute is gonna be a mess tomorrow. 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

3k isn’t as warm as the 12k. Has a nice stripe of snow from like Danbury to Kevin to ORH to Ray. 

I’m sure Scott’s patience is beyond thin 

[ORH_wxman]

7 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

There was a storm.. I know Will would remember.. Between 2001-2004 .. Walt was on the desk that  day and I think it was a Saturday and pretty sure in January. All along leading up to it looked like snow with WSW up. That morning Walt noticed warming aloft and said there’d be little snow south of pike. And it turned out he was exactly right. We started as ZR and it ended up a pretty good icestorm locally. I am wondering if there are any similarities to this one?

Almost sounds like the early January 2005 ice storm in CT. We had warning criteria snow in ORH for that but just down to the south it was a lot of ZR. There was an elevation component to it too down there where some of the hill towns had almost a half inch of ice. 

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Almost sounds like the early January 2005 ice storm in CT. We had warning criteria snow in ORH for that but just down to the south it was a lot of ZR. There was an elevation component to it too down there where some of the hill towns had almost a half inch of ice. 

That was it . It was the last winter in our house in town here on the Green. There was big ice above 700’. I distinctly recall that modeled as snow until the morning of and we didn’t have a flake just all zr. I remember being shocked there was no sleet . 

[The 4 Seasons]

I remember that one two years ago that was a bad bust on the warmer side. Feb 25th 2022.  it looked like mostly snow every model had warning snowfall, right before the event started the ECMWF doubled down with 8-14 inches. But the NAM wasnt having it and was mostly a mix of sleet/zr. We went 4-8" and ended up with 1-2" of pure sleet, it never even snowed here. Nothern CT did OK with 2-5" and some sleet. 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

17 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

3k isn’t as warm as the 12k. Has a nice stripe of snow from like Danbury to Kevin to ORH to Ray. 

Which one is more accurate picking up warm layers . I’m not saying I buy the 12km nam .