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Monitoring some form of significant ( to be determined more precisely) impact winter storm, Jan 16/17th. Moderate seems to be the upper limit - for now

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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ORH_wxman
ORH_wxman

I just cleaned up this thread…what an embarrassment for some of you. Act like you’ve posted on the forums before and didn’t just get here from accuwx forums.   This is still a storm thread.

ORH_wxman
ORH_wxman

If people want to act like children and complain about every threat, they can do it elsewhere. There are still people who log on here to read about the meteorology and actual model discussion of a thr

ORH_wxman
ORH_wxman

It’s actually trended better since 00z but this forum has become an unreadable dumpster fire. 

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fz583

fz583

Posted
Posted
17 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

I think where I’m headed…St Agatha maybe more in the 6” zone…

I'll be headed to Presque Isle on Saturday, buddy got to camp on Little Madawaska lake last night, he had 12" on the deck, south of there was slim, hopefully this storm evens things out and clubs can connect the dots, have a new Rave 850 staring at me. 

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weatherwiz

weatherwiz

Posted
Posted

Been super busy with alot going on but it's great to see this lining up to the thoughts some had. It's also great to see the GFS coming around to those thoughts as well. I had a feeling the GFS was just not handling this well the other day. Certainly may not be a "big storm" but its something. 

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The 4 Seasons

The 4 Seasons

Posted
Posted
34 minutes ago, JKEisMan said:

HREF nice, solid light to moderate event.image.thumb.png.166dd25d38eebae0525e345eae6caaa3.png

Love me some big JEFE aka HREF.

side note: the last 5-10 pages of this thread were a rollercoaster ride and i didn't want to get off. 

We'll see what the 12Z EC says but thinking about bumping up an inch or two. Sleet and ZR is becoming a focus and real concern for tomorrow.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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Posted
1 hour ago, dryslot said:

H5 closing off over LI, Thats where i was going with this, 10 days ago, This was looking like a storm in that millibar range you outlined, That does happen up in canada, It looks like it remains in the 995-1000mb range as it passes our lat.

OH, gotcha - different context

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The 4 Seasons

The 4 Seasons

Posted
Posted

I just read BOXs AFD. Seems really conservative to me given the latest model/trends and doesnt match up with what their map has. Strange... 

For now, we have held off on issuing any Winter Weather
Advisories for the region. There is a good possibility one
could be issued due to the threat of freezing rain and impacts
to the Tuesday morning commute. Snowfall ranges between 1-2
inches with up to 3 inches possible in northeast Massachusetts.
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dendrite

dendrite

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

I just read BOXs AFD. Seems really conservative to me given the latest model/trends and doesnt match up with what their map has. Strange... 

For now, we have held off on issuing any Winter Weather
Advisories for the region. There is a good possibility one
could be issued due to the threat of freezing rain and impacts
to the Tuesday morning commute. Snowfall ranges between 1-2
inches with up to 3 inches possible in northeast Massachusetts.

I mean doesn't any ZR trigger a WWA?

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WinterWolf

WinterWolf

Posted
Posted
13 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

I just read BOXs AFD. Seems really conservative to me given the latest model/trends and doesnt match up with what their map has. Strange... 

For now, we have held off on issuing any Winter Weather
Advisories for the region. There is a good possibility one
could be issued due to the threat of freezing rain and impacts
to the Tuesday morning commute. Snowfall ranges between 1-2
inches with up to 3 inches possible in northeast Massachusetts.

After the Euro, they’ll update. 

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dendrite

dendrite

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, The 4 Seasons said:

yep, absolutely and they don't have one up. is that what you mean?

i was more referencing their snow map vs their "1-2" thoughts.

 

Yeah that's what I mean. I think they need to average 3"/12hrs over a zone so 2-3" wouldn't really cut it in the all snow zones I guess. But with the ZR mixing in over much of CT I'd think they would just go with the WWA anyway...unless they're saving it for the next shift.

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jbenedet

jbenedet

Posted
Posted
21 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

I just read BOXs AFD. Seems really conservative to me given the latest model/trends and doesnt match up with what their map has. Strange... 

For now, we have held off on issuing any Winter Weather
Advisories for the region. There is a good possibility one
could be issued due to the threat of freezing rain and impacts
to the Tuesday morning commute. Snowfall ranges between 1-2
inches with up to 3 inches possible in northeast Massachusetts.

I got no horse in this race, but this trend is a PITA for BOX.

Probably why they are gun shy. At least this is why I would be...

Doesn't help either with how cold biased the GFS has been up until go time...

9c558216-59df-4f43-a5d7-11ab54086555.gif

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Greg

Greg

Posted
Posted
11 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

I got no horse in this race, but this trend is a PITA for BOX.

Probably why they are gun shy. At least this is why I would be...

Doesn't help either with how cold biased the GFS has been up until go time...

9c558216-59df-4f43-a5d7-11ab54086555.gif

With the GEM "Warm Bias" and the GFS "Cold Bias", an in-between compromise would actually be in order here. Euro model will help be the decider.

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

Posted
Posted
16 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Yeah that's what I mean. I think they need to average 3"/12hrs over a zone so 2-3" wouldn't really cut it in the all snow zones I guess. But with the ZR mixing in over much of CT I'd think they would just go with the WWA anyway...unless they're saving it for the next shift.

Much of CT? Seems like only SE sections . Unless you’re fully buying Reggie 

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Greg

Greg

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Much of CT? Seems like only SE sections . Unless you’re fully buying Reggie 

Both the Reggie and the GEM have a Canadian warmer bias, this is fairly well known. If those models were correct about the Jan 7th storm we had, I would have been rain through most of the storm, which of course I wasn't.

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