Monitoring some form of significant ( to be determined more precisely) impact winter storm, Jan 16/17th. Moderate seems to be the upper limit - for now

[SouthCoastMA]

uniform 1-2" south to north in SNE is my call. 3+ in CNE/NNE

[Damage In Tolland]

  On 1/15/2024 at 2:30 PM, CoastalWx said:

Congrats on getting lucky. That’s a win against the many losses from crazy ideas like widespread wind damage, days and days of snow etc. One to really hang up in your room and be proud. 

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It’s about getting the forecast right and sharing knowledge with other more inexperienced posters. 

[WxWatcher007]

  On 1/15/2024 at 2:29 PM, CoastalWx said:

Might slot quicker than we think as DGZ lifts up. I could see some mix or crappy flakes in areas where that happens. 

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It’s a solid middling event. Might bring more snow than end of week  

[CoastalWx]

  On 1/15/2024 at 2:32 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

It’s about getting the forecast right and sharing knowledge with other more inexperienced posters. 

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Yea every storm comes in earlier. Coastals, SWFE. Just all of them.  This setup has morphed over the last few days. Congrats Nostradamus.

[Damage In Tolland]

  On 1/15/2024 at 2:37 PM, CoastalWx said:

Yea every storm comes in earlier. Coastals, SWFE. Just all of them.  This setup has morphed over the mast few days. Congrats Nostradamus.

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The end of the week event looks the same . Initially models had it Friday into Saturday. Now it’s Thursday night into Friday. Just seems to always speed up 

[MaineJayhawk]

Scooter is teetering

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

  On 1/15/2024 at 2:37 PM, CoastalWx said:

Yea every storm comes in earlier. Coastals, SWFE. Just all of them.  This setup has morphed over the last few days. Congrats Nostradamus.

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Commute from Raynham to Wilmington tomorrow looks awful, as expected 

[CoastalWx]

  On 1/15/2024 at 2:38 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

The end of the week event looks the same . Initially models had it Friday into Saturday. Now it’s Thursday night into Friday. Just seems to always speed up 

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We don’t even know if they’ll be a storm.

[Damage In Tolland]

  On 1/15/2024 at 2:40 PM, CoastalWx said:

We don’t even know if they’ll be a storm.

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Well there really was never any real threat of a big storm.. it’s always looked like a light to moderate event to me anyway. Pattern too progressive 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

  On 1/15/2024 at 2:40 PM, CoastalWx said:

We don’t even know if they’ll be a storm.

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twitter ensembles say 3-6

[moneypitmike]

  On 1/15/2024 at 2:38 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

The end of the week event looks the same . Initially models had it Friday into Saturday. Now it’s Thursday night into Friday. Just seems to always speed up 

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And sometimes they just disappear.

[Damage In Tolland]

  On 1/15/2024 at 2:55 PM, moneypitmike said:

And sometimes they just disappear.

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Thats not this . This is a snow event end of week

[ORH_wxman]

RGEM still pretty juiced. Really nice event up in Maine. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

  On 1/15/2024 at 2:32 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

It’s about getting the forecast right and sharing knowledge with other more inexperienced posters. 

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I’ve had several infrequent posters come up to me and say, “if it were not for DIT, I wouldn’t know anything about forecasting.” 

[Typhoon Tip]

  On 1/15/2024 at 3:05 PM, ORH_wxman said:

RGEM still pretty juiced. Really nice event up in Maine. 

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orbital interpretation probably a 6" stripe BDL-ASH that fans and spreads laterally going N, with a stripe of 8-10" emerging along the way

[ORH_wxman]

  On 1/15/2024 at 3:08 PM, Typhoon Tip said:

orbital interpretation probably a 6" stripe BDL-ASH that fans and spreads laterally going N, with a stripe of 8-10" emerging along the way

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I’d like to see stronger lift modeled to entertain more seriously a low end warning event. Seems like we could get a nice steady light to moderate snow for a while and I guess if snow growth is good enough then maybe we can get a stripe of 6-8” out of 0.44” of QPF or something like that…but I also think there’s a lot more paths to 2-4” of powder where radar returns are a bit inconsistent. 

[Damage In Tolland]

  On 1/15/2024 at 3:07 PM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I’ve had several infrequent posters come up to me and say, “if it were not for DIT, I wouldn’t know anything about forecasting.” 

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Please thank them for me 

[dryslot]

This one so far really doesn't get its act together until its up in Canada.

[weathafella]

I will probably taint for a spell unless the low consolidates more than expected.  I have a doctors appointment at 9AM-bad timing unfortunately.  My expectation is 2-3 for mby.

[Typhoon Tip]

  On 1/15/2024 at 3:14 PM, ORH_wxman said:

I’d like to see stronger lift modeled to entertain more seriously a low end warning event. Seems like we could get a nice steady light to moderate snow for a while and I guess if snow growth is good enough then maybe we can get a stripe of 6-8” out of 0.44” of QPF or something like that…but I also think there’s a lot more paths to 2-4” of powder where radar returns are a bit inconsistent. 

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Yeah, I mean I'm just interpreting that RGEM run.   

One thing we're all overlooking is that there's an absence of meaningful +PP N of the region... Even in the weak-side structure of this event, there's enough thrust to draw a pesky mix zone pretty far into CT and SE Ma.... I think other's have mentioned that it may ping or flip for a minute even in the BDL-ASH region - .. unsure

[ineedsnow]

Still thinking 3 to 5 here no changes from last night

[HoarfrostHubb]

  On 1/15/2024 at 2:37 PM, CoastalWx said:

Yea every storm comes in earlier. Coastals, SWFE. Just all of them.  This setup has morphed over the last few days. Congrats Nostradamus.

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They also depart quicker

Except for the rainers. Those stay around a while like one of Ray’s patented farts. 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Expecting an inch of slop here, over to mix and then ending as light rain.

 

looks better towards ORH up to SW NH and really into Maine 

[dryslot]

Reggie has been the most consistent model and has maintained a further NW track with the SLP for 3 or 4 days now for up here with a 0.50-0.75" qpf distribution.

[WinterWolf]

  On 1/15/2024 at 3:23 PM, dryslot said:

Reggie has been the most consistent model and has maintained a further NW track with the SLP for 3 or 4 days now for up here with a 0.50-0.75" qpf distribution.

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If the county does decent…that will be enough for me to take the first trip. Hoping for that. 

[Typhoon Tip]

  On 1/15/2024 at 3:23 PM, dryslot said:

Reggie has been the most consistent model and has maintained a further NW track with the SLP for 3 or 4 days now for up here with a 0.50-0.75" qpf distribution.

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Oh, you're doing better up there than down here - not that it's a competition heh. 

But I outlined earlier that there's conceptual aspects related to the mid and upper jet mechanics that might enhance a band or two down our way.  That's speculation -

[dryslot]

  On 1/15/2024 at 3:27 PM, Typhoon Tip said:

Oh, you're doing better up there than down here - not that it's a competition heh. 

But I outlined earlier that there's conceptual aspects related to the mid and upper jet mechanics that might enhance a band or two down our way.  That's speculation -

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My thoughts were mainly that the RGEM i believe sniffed this one out and has remained steadfast, Unfortunately, For all of us, This remains rather disorganized and you never get this to close off until up around the Gaspe.

[Damage In Tolland]

  On 1/15/2024 at 3:23 PM, dryslot said:

Reggie has been the most consistent model and has maintained a further NW track with the SLP for 3 or 4 days now for up here with a 0.50-0.75" qpf distribution.

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All winter it’s rocked 

[Typhoon Tip]

  On 1/15/2024 at 3:32 PM, dryslot said:

My thoughts were mainly that the RGEM i believe sniffed this one out and has remained steadfast, Unfortunately, For all of us, This remains rather disorganized and you never get this to close off until up around the Gaspe.

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what do we mean by closed off?  I see 3 or 4 pressure contours and going below 999 mb by the time this is passing near the Islands down here.   I'm not sure I get that sentiment.

I think the storm is intensifying in general after leaving SNE influence - sure.  That's typical though. It's really just a typical coastal storm, down the scale.   We can quibble over idiosyncrasies that look distracting but I see 12 hours of NE wind at LGA to BOS with .3 to .5 QPF in the column, with as I said, ...closed surface contours. 

Not every storm is 980 haha.  I wish

[dryslot]

  On 1/15/2024 at 3:36 PM, Typhoon Tip said:

what do we mean by closed off?  I see 3 or 4 pressure contours and going below 999 mb by the time this is passing near the Islands down here.   I'm not sure I get that sentiment.

I think the storm is intensifying in general after leaving SNE influence - sure.  That's typical though. It's really just a typical coastal storm, down the scale.   We can quibble over idiosyncrasies that look distracting but I see 12 hours of NE wind at LGA to BOS with .3 to .5 QPF in the column, with as I said, ...closed surface contours. 

Not every storm is 980 haha.  I wish

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H5 closing off over LI, Thats where i was going with this, 10 days ago, This was looking like a storm in that millibar range you outlined, That does happen up in canada, It looks like it remains in the 995-1000mb range as it passes our lat.