Monitoring some form of significant ( to be determined more precisely) impact winter storm, Jan 16/17th. Moderate seems to be the upper limit - for now

[Typhoon Tip]

8 hours ago, The 4 Seasons said:

Yeah, this past Wednesday/Thursday the mean on the EC was a huge swath of 6" across most of New England. Some of the OP runs we're pretty nice and had 8-14" over E/SNE

We were looking at potentially a region wide 6-10" event or more but then things quickly fell apart and over the past couple days we've been looking at 1-3" deal (with some very good globals having nothing more than snow showers) then the possibility of 3-5" over some of SNE if things pan out well.

Expectations fell to the floor and have been recently rising a tick or two. 

I think a lot of us are watching and are invested in this because 1) this winter has been complete garbage so far, so anything feels like a win and 2) we've got a solid cold shot after the storm to keep the "pack" intact and 3) a potentially significant storm on the horizon for the 20th to add to said pack. 

Heh, not that anything I say is worth a shit or should be heeded therein ... but, I did write it clearly in the title to cap this thing at moderate, also intimating that the impact is unknown -

I didn't see enough consistency ( to be honest ) "7-10 days ago" that made 10" confident enough for a ceiling that high. 

I guess there's some interpretation/subjectivity as to what is low, moderate, vs major.  When I was but a Meteorological pupa, 4-6" was considered a low event, followed by 6-10", followed by 10+" respectively. I guess I could be more clear about that range in the future...

But 7-10 days ago, this only had a medium suggestion in the numerical telecons ... So, we were - or I was ... - in wait of the operational runs to begin materializing what the numerical suggested should be there - so ... we got some "sporadic" runs with that emergence.   I was seeing poor continuity, as implied by sporadic, though.  Also, with the speed of the flow tending to stretch/shear events et al - not sure where those concepts meant 8-14" ( major) and a higher ceiling would be warranted - ...

 

[moneypitmike]

6 minutes ago, gonegalt said:

Heh!

congrats.

[Hazey]

The mid range (84-120hrs) euro and gfs for that matter were absolutely dreadful with this system. The Canadian models with the Bay of Fundy track will end up being correct. Can't trust anything outside 72hrs now. That's why i didn't invest in this. Too much rug pulling this season.  Congrats to those that actually see accumulations.  

[ORH_wxman]

06z euro came in more robust too. Thinking 3-5” where it stays all snow (so prob interior SNE up into central and eastern CNE/NNE)

[dendrite]

Looks like a nice broomable fluffer. Feeling 3-4” here. 

[dryslot]

06z Euro was what i was envisioning, Let see if the 12z runs continue with the earlier development at the surface.

[MaineJayhawk]

Peeps be acting like their dog got run over.   A few inches on the way tomorrow and we'll see what happens later in the week.   Life is good.

[Layman]

“Meteorological pupa”

”Broomable fluffer”

I learn new things in here everyday!

[Damage In Tolland]

18 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

06z euro came in more robust too. Thinking 3-5” where it stays all snow (so prob interior SNE up into central and eastern CNE/NNE)

Yup . Also starts well before daybreak 

[Typhoon Tip]

For the Mets ...  noting the 200 and 300 mb jet overlays, with the arrival of the 500 mb max - that should be a favorable region for mid level forcing - it may be why we are seeing at least light QPF layout extending so far NW into eastern upstate NY and VT, but that could also be an indication of some sneaky banding with higher returns occurring down here where the right exit region of the 500 mb is arriving underneath those upper air difluence channeling.   The 300 mb wind is 175kts in the Euro and GFS ( now that they've put down the glue ... we can check their fields!)

[CoastalWx]

Hi res taint into interior SNE. Might be capped at 1-3/2-4 for many. 3-5 maybe north. If they’re right. 

[NeonPeon]

 

1 hour ago, WeatherX said:

Gotta get the kick in the stick with our snow, can’t have it all.


.

Or indeed, anything, on the coast.

[Damage In Tolland]

26 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Hi res taint into interior SNE. Might be capped at 1-3/2-4 for many. 3-5 maybe north. If they’re right. 

Asking for one of my friends.. what time does it start snowing ?

[powderfreak]

Pretty widespread 3-5”.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

36 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Hi res taint into interior SNE. Might be capped at 1-3/2-4 for many. 3-5 maybe north. If they’re right. 

Globals moved toward Mesos, which to me is good, so now we get more moisture but for the coasts ..same ole issues for second half 

i would say ORH into hill towns W of ASH and NW look primed for 3-6

[Ginx snewx]

10 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Asking for one of my friends.. what time does it start snowing ?

Midnight 

[rimetree]

NAM a touch deeper than 6z. Looks like a decent period of moderate snow tomorrow.

[Ginx snewx]

40 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

For the Mets ...  noting the 200 and 300 mb jet overlays, with the arrival of the 500 mb max - that should be a favorable region for mid level forcing - it may be why we are seeing at least light QPF layout extending so far NW into eastern upstate NY and VT, but that could also be an indication of some sneaky banding with higher returns occurring down here where the right exit region of the 500 mb is arriving underneath those upper air difluence channeling.   The 300 mb wind is 175kts in the Euro and GFS ( now that they've put down the glue ... we can check their fields!)

Why only for the Mets are the rest of us dumb?

[Damage In Tolland]

Seems like E and Se Mass to SE CT may mix for a time before going back to snow but NW of that stays snow . We’ll see hi res do usual Messenger shuffle east today to match globals.. and there’s your answer 

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

Midnight 

Thanks but I was wanting Scooter to answer 

[Ginx snewx]

4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Thanks but I was wanting Scooter to answer 

Ginx knows  Lol. Actually some decent banding showing up

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Quick change to rain for Bos pvd and eastern Conn 

[mreaves]

Might as well add BTV to the list. 

[ORH_wxman]

Forecast doesn’t look overly complicated. Prob go 3-5” for 495 to ORH hills down into interior CT…1-3” for SE MA/RI/SE CT except maybe NW RI. 
 

Maybe someone gets a little higher lolli from a surprise band but so far the lift doesn’t look all that prolific. 

[CoastalWx]

6 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Quick change to rain for Bos pvd and eastern Conn 

I think it taints aloft before the surface. So areas inland to about 95 stay below 32 but may be sleet or ZR. Freezing line is not getting further than 95.

[Typhoon Tip]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Forecast doesn’t look overly complicated. Prob go 3-5” for 495 to ORH hills down into interior CT…1-3” for SE MA/RI/SE CT except maybe NW RI. 
 

Maybe someone gets a little higher lolli from a surprise band but so far the lift doesn’t look all that prolific. 

I wonder if someone uttered that sentiment on the day before Dec 23 1997

LOL

[WxWatcher007]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Forecast doesn’t look overly complicated. Prob go 3-5” for 495 to ORH hills down into interior CT…1-3” for SE MA/RI/SE CT except maybe NW RI. 
 

Maybe someone gets a little higher lolli from a surprise band but so far the lift doesn’t look all that prolific. 

Agree, would probably drag the 1-3” line a little further west along the CT coast, but no reason to overthink it. The icing piece may be an issue. 

[Damage In Tolland]

17 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

These always come in early 

 

21 hours ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

I would love for you to be right, but I'm just not seeing 3-6... Let alone 4-8. 

 

21 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

That’s my thinking 3-6 and there will be a 4-8 “ mid level zone 

 

On 1/14/2024 at 7:28 AM, Damage In Tolland said:

Starts predawn in CT 

 

On 1/14/2024 at 7:55 AM, Damage In Tolland said:

2-4 west 3-6 East. Locked And some narrow stripe under mid level band of 4-8”

 

On 1/14/2024 at 8:04 AM, CoastalWx said:

Timing Tuesday in all areas. Maybe a flurry before 7a in BDR.

 

On 1/14/2024 at 8:10 AM, Damage In Tolland said:

Figuring after 3:00 AM start CT and gets to BOS by morning commute . Solid event coming 

 

On 1/14/2024 at 8:12 AM, CoastalWx said:

No

 

On 1/14/2024 at 8:14 AM, Damage In Tolland said:

They always come in early . So yes 

 

[CoastalWx]

4 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Agree, would probably drag the 1-3” line a little further west along the CT coast, but no reason to overthink it. The icing piece may be an issue. 

Might slot quicker than we think as DGZ lifts up. I could see some mix or crappy flakes in areas where that happens. 

[CoastalWx]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Congrats on getting lucky. That’s a win against the many losses from crazy ideas like widespread wind damage, days and days of snow etc. One to really hang up in your room and be proud.