Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    18,126
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    happyclam13
    Newest Member
    happyclam13
    Joined

Monitoring some form of significant ( to be determined more precisely) impact winter storm, Jan 16/17th. Moderate seems to be the upper limit - for now


Typhoon Tip
 Share

Recommended Posts

  On 1/15/2024 at 3:47 AM, ineedsnow said:

pretty good shift on the GFS  MESOS are going to win this I think

Expand  

No, no …isn’t this a shit sandwich? We were just told that by a pessimistic poster a few minutes ago.
 

This thing is trending still at 24 hrs out….but the one almost a week from now on Saturday is being written off by some peeps already lmao. 

  • Like 1
  • Weenie 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

GFS with a total cave. Not as crazy as the HRRR or RGEM going over the islands but its defintely inside the BM now. Again, i think well see a compromise here but closer to the mesos than the globals, maybe a 70/30 compromise? Which would probably be a sweet spot for most of the forum. Well see where we are at after the 00/06Z suite tonight but i think we're looking good overall. 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_fh42_trend.thumb.gif.b0244b96fb06d19a3419b27d075732bf.gif

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  On 1/15/2024 at 4:03 AM, The 4 Seasons said:

GFS with a total cave. Not as crazy as the HRRR or RGEM going over the islands but its defintely inside the BM now. Again, i think well see a compromise here but closer to the mesos than the globals, maybe a 70/30 compromise? Which would probably be a sweet spot for most of the forum. Well see where we are at after the 00/06Z suite tonight but i think we're looking good overall. 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_fh42_trend.thumb.gif.b0244b96fb06d19a3419b27d075732bf.gif

Expand  

I think part of the problem is that the majority this event is being driven by low level instability along that very intense bclinic axis. 

Remember we’re dropping in an arctic air mass/boundary and it’s gonna stall in that area …there’s a lot of Explosive potential there. The problem is is that the global models probably don’t have the lower level resolution while waiting on upper level mechanics …

Doesn’t explain why being closer to it in time suddenly makes that all visible but… We’ve seen this in the past where mesos score around these intense gradients. 

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

  On 1/15/2024 at 4:11 AM, Typhoon Tip said:

I think part of the problem is that the majority this event is being driven by low level instability along that very intense bclinic axis. 

Remember we’re dropping in an arctic air mass/boundary and it’s gonna stall in that area …there’s a lot of Explosive potential there. The problem is is that the global models probably don’t have the lower level resolution while waiting on upper level mechanics …

Doesn’t explain why being closer to it in time suddenly makes that all visible but… We’ve seen this in the past where measles score around these intense gradients. 

Expand  

Lol

  • Haha 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

This thing has a huge upside to it. But like Four seasons and I were just discussing it kind of lacks the mid and upper level mechanics to get to that top shelf. But the upshot is there, because there is so much explosive potential along/just off eastern seaboard; it really is incredible how much potential is there but not being tapped. Evidenced by spinning up a low end moderate event out of weak triggers - I mean there is some jet going on.

But the indexes flagged this for a reason so here we are. Fascinating 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...