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Monitoring some form of significant ( to be determined more precisely) impact winter storm, Jan 16/17th. Moderate seems to be the upper limit - for now

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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ORH_wxman
ORH_wxman

I just cleaned up this thread…what an embarrassment for some of you. Act like you’ve posted on the forums before and didn’t just get here from accuwx forums.   This is still a storm thread.

ORH_wxman
ORH_wxman

If people want to act like children and complain about every threat, they can do it elsewhere. There are still people who log on here to read about the meteorology and actual model discussion of a thr

ORH_wxman
ORH_wxman

It’s actually trended better since 00z but this forum has become an unreadable dumpster fire. 

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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  On 1/14/2024 at 6:07 PM, weathafella said:

Euro today says 1-3/2-4.

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This may be a rare scenario ( when speaking in terms of model performance/history <-- relative to...) that the Euro corrects toward the less conventional/trusted model sources.  In fact, ...so rare, I wonder if that's ever really happened where a GGEM/RGEM/ICON blend successfully coup'ed

That said ... after 3 consecutive cycles the GGEM had ticked more impacting... as of 12z, arrived looking more RGEM like than ever.  It gets hard to knock such strident continuity; now < 60 hours, when said trend of the Can cluster has been there since late middle range.  -when then also introducing the philosophical aspect I outlined regarding the explosive baroclinic boundary condition laid into place between ~ ATL to just SE of Cape Cod by this arctic boundary/air mass that slows down and stall along that axis...  I think there is too much argument in favor of these guidance from both an operational technique, to concept Meteorology, to dispose these solutions in lieu of a Euro paltriness that has in fact been 'trying to avoid admitting it's wrong by hedging the event in silent intervals'

I mean I'm not sure of any of this... sort of tongue in cheek. 

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WinterWolf

WinterWolf

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  On 1/14/2024 at 6:26 PM, Typhoon Tip said:

This may be a rare scenario ( when speaking in terms of model performance/history <-- relative to...) that the Euro corrects toward the less conventional/trusted model sources.  In fact, ...so rare, I wonder if that's ever really happened where a GGEM/RGEM/ICON blend successfully coup'ed

That said ... after 3 consecutive cycles the GGEM had ticked more impacting... as of 12z, arrived looking more RGEM like than ever.  It's gets hard to knock such strident continuity < 60 hours, when said trend of the Can cluster has been there since late middle range.  -when then also introducing the philosophical aspect I outlined regarding the explosive baroclinic boundary condition laid into place between ~ ATL to just SE of Cape Cod by this arctic boundary/air mass that slows down and stall along that axis...  I think there is too much argument in favor of these guidance from both an operational technique, to concept Meteorology, to dispose these solutions in lieu of a Euro paltriness that has in fact been 'trying to admit it's wrong without looking like it's modeling the event any differently'

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Sooo…another words, the Canadian and the RGEM are gonna be more right with the heavier look you think. As the Euro plays catch up. Is that what you’re meaning? 

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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  On 1/14/2024 at 6:31 PM, WinterWolf said:

Sooo…another words, the Canadian and the RGEM are gonna be more right with the heavier look you think. As the Euro plays catch up. Is that what you’re meaning? 

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not saying either way ... just pointing out some aspects I'm noticing -

Extending that it's hard to automatically assume the lesser popular/known guidance types will be typically wrong in this seemingly rare case.

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STILL N OF PIKE

STILL N OF PIKE

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  On 1/14/2024 at 6:58 PM, WinterWolf said:

Oh ok.  But sounded to me like you were hedging towards the Canadians, when you said hard to ignore the 60 hr consistency idea…but I guess I misunderstood. 

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Seems to me If anyone  reads his post , he definitely is commenting on why those may score a “coup “

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cleetussnow

cleetussnow

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  On 1/14/2024 at 8:48 PM, George001 said:

The Canadian is a great model, it should not be discounted. 

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Mentioned also by Walt Drag in the NY Metro thread; he says trust it in these scenarios.  Also some say it is number 2 in verification recently. DonaldSutherland might have said that in fact. I was surprised by these endorsements. 

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