Monitoring some form of significant ( to be determined more precisely) impact winter storm, Jan 16/17th. Moderate seems to be the upper limit - for now

[BombsAway1288]

  On 1/13/2024 at 6:10 PM, H2Otown_WX said:

So the Euro sucked that much?

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Sure did. I recommend everyone get away from the models, off this board and out for the rest of the afternoon. It’s 57 here with a nice breeze. Won’t feel this again for about another 2 weeks, maybe longer. Check back in this evening 

[George001]

  On 1/13/2024 at 6:20 PM, MJO812 said:

Yep still some time for changes 

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Yeah it’s too early to give up

[Damage In Tolland]

I wouldn’t wring  hands over Euro. It made another NW move.. like itvaiesta does. It’s on an island . We’ll see

[SnowGoose69]

  On 1/13/2024 at 6:43 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

I wouldn’t wrong hands over Euro. It made another NW move.. like itvaiesta does. It’s on an island . We’ll see

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It never makes big run to run changes inside Day 4 really but it can incrementally go NW or SE repeatedly for like 6 cycles and next thing you know its moved 100 miles.  Sort of did that to us last storm down here in the 2-3 day range

[H2Otown_WX]

  On 1/13/2024 at 6:45 PM, SnowGoose69 said:

It never makes big run to run changes inside Day 4 really but it can incrementally go NW or SE repeatedly for like 6 cycles and next thing you know its moved 100 miles.  Sort of did that to us last storm down here in the 2-3 day range

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Do you think there's a decent chance it will do that in this case?

[78Blizzard]

The dearth of posts in here today told me all I needed to know without looking further.

[ORH_wxman]

  On 1/13/2024 at 8:25 PM, 78Blizzard said:

The dearth of posts in here today told me all I needed to know without looking further.

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It’s actually trended better since 00z but this forum has become an unreadable dumpster fire. 

[NorEastermass128]

  On 1/13/2024 at 8:29 PM, ORH_wxman said:

It’s actually trended better since 00z but this forum has become an unreadable dumpster fire. 

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It’s understandable though. Just endured two massive cutters. It was just 60 and sunny this afternoon. Perhaps a snow squall or two tomorrow afternoon will get people back into the spirit. 
 

Light event still very much on the table for 1/16. 

[Go Kart Mozart]

Just WTF is Nam doing anyway?

[FXWX]

  On 1/13/2024 at 8:29 PM, ORH_wxman said:

It’s actually trended better since 00z but this forum has become an unreadable dumpster fire. 

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Yes!!!  Not very enjoyable recently and getting worse..

 

[ORH_wxman]

  On 1/13/2024 at 8:42 PM, NorEastermass128 said:

It’s understandable though. Just endured two massive cutters. It was just 60 and sunny this afternoon. Perhaps a snow squall or two tomorrow afternoon will get people back into the spirit. 
 

Light event still very much on the table for 1/16. 

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If people want to act like children and complain about every threat, they can do it elsewhere. There are still people who log on here to read about the meteorology and actual model discussion of a threat. 

[8611Blizz]

If this medium existed 35-40 years ago I would expect it (the forum) to be roughly the same. 

[Cuteirishgirl25]

https://x.com/weatherwilly/status/1746273172696035596?s=46&t=Y3ICRnzOhtk67YmRQyZssQ

[Damage In Tolland]

  On 1/13/2024 at 8:53 PM, ORH_wxman said:

If people want to act like children and complain about every threat, they can do it elsewhere. There are still people who log on here to read about the meteorology and actual model discussion of a threat. 

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We want them all gone. Every last one of them. Let’s drain the swamp !

[weatherwiz]

  On 1/13/2024 at 5:22 PM, Typhoon Tip said:

yeah I mean I did set the ceiling on this to be moderate for a reason. At the time ...we're (unfortunate to higher end proficiency) modeling a fast velocity soaked pattern. 

I asked Will if we should go ahead and switch the title of this thread to include both event - they are sort of indirectly effecting, because the SPV that subsumes in the 20th is in fact part of the suppression of this leading system.  Complex -

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I would go ahead and make a new thread IMO. 

[Snowcrazed71]

  On 1/13/2024 at 9:20 PM, weatherwiz said:

I would go ahead and make a new thread IMO. 

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  On 1/13/2024 at 6:43 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

I wouldn’t wring  hands over Euro. It made another NW move.. like itvaiesta does. It’s on an island . We’ll see

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Do you really think we're going to see 2-4/3-6 inches of snow Tuesday at this point? 

[Damage In Tolland]

  On 1/13/2024 at 9:24 PM, Snowcrazed71 said:

 

Do you really think we're going to see 2-4/3-6 inches of snow Tuesday at this point? 

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Yes 100%. To me this is pretty easy one to forecast 

[Damage In Tolland]

Icestorm for @RUNNAWAYICEBERG

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

  On 1/13/2024 at 9:27 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

Icestorm for @RUNNAWAYICEBERG

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That looks like the 12z nam? 18z is more se and all snow. 

[weatherwiz]

  On 1/13/2024 at 9:24 PM, Snowcrazed71 said:

 

Do you really think we're going to see 2-4/3-6 inches of snow Tuesday at this point? 

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I was just suggesting a new thread to keep the events separate, especially with how quickly threads grow. 

I don't think a significant hit is likely Tuesday, but I would not rule out some sort of accumulating snow event whether that be 1-2'' or 3-4''. 

[NorEastermass128]

  On 1/13/2024 at 8:53 PM, ORH_wxman said:

If people want to act like children and complain about every threat, they can do it elsewhere. There are still people who log on here to read about the meteorology and actual model discussion of a threat. 

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Agree. Not condoning it. I pull myself back from the edge oftentimes so I don’t taint a thread. And for once, taint is not a worry for the next two threats. 

[WxWatcher007]

Not worth much as we wait for the GFS but the ICON had more of a developing low at 18z. We’ll see what the GFS does but there are certainly some ticks toward something measurable.

[Damage In Tolland]

  On 1/13/2024 at 9:33 PM, WxWatcher007 said:

Not worth much as we wait for the GFS but the ICON had more of a developing low at 18z. We’ll see what the GFS does but there are certainly some ticks toward something measurable.

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We’ve never ticked away from that. There is zero chance we all aren’t shoveling/ snow blowing Tuesday evening 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Gfs ticking.

[mahk_webstah]

Light  to moderate storm for most of New England, followed by a larger storm.  Just chill and watch.

[WxWatcher007]

  On 1/13/2024 at 9:35 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

We’ve never ticked away from that. There is zero chance we all aren’t shoveling/ snow blowing Tuesday evening 

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I don’t disagree with you, but the models were pretty paltry verbatim. I think we eventually end up with a 1-3/2-4” deal. 

[nutmegfriar]

Ginx - What's your saying about filling up the rivers and streams prior to a sizable snowstorm?  Am I remembering the gist of that correctly?

[Damage In Tolland]

  On 1/13/2024 at 10:21 PM, nutmegfriar said:

Ginx - What's your saying about filling up the rivers and streams prior to a sizable snowstorm?  Am I remembering the gist of that correctly?

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Yore.

Up to thy knickers.

[HoarfrostHubb]

  On 1/13/2024 at 10:21 PM, nutmegfriar said:

Ginx - What's your saying about filling up the rivers and streams prior to a sizable snowstorm?  Am I remembering the gist of that correctly?

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When the weenies are filled, 

Tauntonblizzard whines still?

[WinterWolf]

  On 1/13/2024 at 10:29 PM, HoarfrostHubb said:

When the weenies are filled, 

Tauntonblizzard whines still?

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That’s pretty funny Dave.