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Monitoring some form of significant ( to be determined more precisely) impact winter storm, Jan 16/17th. Moderate seems to be the upper limit - for now

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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ORH_wxman
ORH_wxman

I just cleaned up this thread…what an embarrassment for some of you. Act like you’ve posted on the forums before and didn’t just get here from accuwx forums.   This is still a storm thread.

ORH_wxman
ORH_wxman

If people want to act like children and complain about every threat, they can do it elsewhere. There are still people who log on here to read about the meteorology and actual model discussion of a thr

ORH_wxman
ORH_wxman

It’s actually trended better since 00z but this forum has become an unreadable dumpster fire. 

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WinterWolf

WinterWolf

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, JoeSnowBOS said:


You said it “it’s the NAM” - time to close book on anything more than broom dustings


.

It was the NAM that sniffed out tomorrow’s squalls back on Thursday night at 84 hrs…so don’t be so quick to right it off just yet. Sometimes the NAM, as bad as it can be, has brought back potentials from the dead before other modeling has.  So just be weary of that fact Joe.  

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WinterWolf

WinterWolf

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

I whine? I staying the course. If I go down with the ship next week so be it. 

That’s what I was trying to tell him.  WTF is it with some of these people? They make up shit that you didn’t say, and then cry and whine. Some real mental cases in here. 

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted
Just now, WinterWolf said:

That’s what I was trying to tell him.  WTF is it with some of these people? They make up shit that you didn’t say, and then cry and whine. Some real mental cases in here. 

The fact I was level headed last weekend watching 34F non accumulating snow for 12 hrs should say a lot.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

I just cleaned up this thread…what an embarrassment for some of you. Act like you’ve posted on the forums before and didn’t just get here from accuwx forums.

 

This is still a storm thread. If you have no interest in this event, then don’t post in here again. Go to the banter thread. That’s what it’s for. 

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dryslot

dryslot

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

The fact I was level headed last weekend watching 34F non accumulating snow for 12 hrs should say a lot.

I was impressed, I thought you would've had to replace the outside door again when you ripped it off the hinges.

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Kitz Craver

Kitz Craver

Posted
Posted
12 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I whine? I staying the course. If I go down with the ship next week so be it. 

No, Lol. That went over your head. Wolfie said the “usual whiners” are out in reference to people saying this event went to shit, possibly the next one as well and it is starting to effect the tone of the season. Ray and yourself hardly ever whine but also shared the sentiment that these events could very well be going to shit. That’s why I asked, are Ray and yourself part of this crew of whiners? In a sarcastic tone, Lol 

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

ICON/NAM/RGEM all have something at 12z. The mechanics of this event look fairly fleeting, but they’re all showing an area of decent lift moving through quickly on Tuesday which would be enough to support advisory snowfall in a decent stripe where that occurs. 

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George001

George001

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, Kitz Craver said:

No, Lol. That went over your head. Wolfie said the “usual whiners” are out in reference to people saying this event went to shit, possibly the next one as well and it is starting to affect the tone of the season. Ray and yourself hardly ever whine but also shared the sentiment that these events could very well be going to shit. That’s why I asked, are Ray and yourself part of this crew of whiners? In a sarcastic tone, Lol 

This event went to shit? It’s still 4 days out…. Models do this every storm, if anything you want to be a bit SE of the heaviest snows in guidance this far out.

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WinterWolf

WinterWolf

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

ICON/NAM/RGEM all have something at 12z. The mechanics of this event look fairly fleeting, but they’re all showing an area of decent lift moving through quickly on Tuesday which would be enough to support advisory snowfall in a decent stripe where that occurs. 

Thank you for cleaning up, and for the accurate description so far at 12z. 

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George001

George001

Posted
Posted

Don’t get me wrong, I’m not opposed to negative posts about the pattern when it’s justified. I was bitching a lot about the pattern myself in December, but we have cold air now and something to track. The way I see is get the cold first, and usually snow will follow. This is a much higher probability event than having to rely on dynamic cooling and storms to create their own cold air.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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Posted
19 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

ICON/NAM/RGEM all have something at 12z. The mechanics of this event look fairly fleeting, but they’re all showing an area of decent lift moving through quickly on Tuesday which would be enough to support advisory snowfall in a decent stripe where that occurs. 

Yeah... it's not the first time that a mid range cyclone degenerated into an isentropic lift scenario - think of warm advection bursts as the intermediate scaled amplitude between no-go and a well/better formed cyclonic storm.

Frankly, I put what we've just witnessed over the last 24 hours of rug pulling as clear model attenuation phenomenon. I suspect I know the cause.  I'll repeat here what I wrote to Scott (for commiseration) over in the January thread, because it was in regards to this event ( and the 20th for that matter)

"There's too much compression in the heights through the integrated manifold, between 70 N and 35N ... over the eastern continent.  The flow is physically speeding up as anything attempts to inject into that region ( you know this - just commiserating here...), and that acceleration is absorbing the native mechanics of any S/W ... If the S/W can't impose it's own forcing in the field, no storm.  Instead, we end up with models being dense ( stupid ...) about the speed of the flow and having to then speed it up. They have to destroy their own cyclogen parametric/resulting design,  as the mid range torpid flows become realistically bombastic in the nearer terms."

Credit the Euro so far for "seeing" attenuation before the GFS.  I did mention either very early in this thread, or just prior to starting this thread over in the January one, that 'one way to overcome the Miami rule is to have the embedded S/W be very powerful'  - over the last 24 hours that power has attenuated.  That's just it.

Having said that, I've noticed that some meso models are punching a WAA burst over at least a weak cyclone, closer in from over night and continuing this morning.  I don't believe this event or thread is completely baseless at this point in time.  Cyclogen coherency ... pehraps decays toward the isentropic type of event.  We should also note that the thread title clearly states to ceiling this at moderate - sometimes it helps to really read and learn the 'intent' so we don't dial up our expectations.    

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WinterWolf

WinterWolf

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Give Wolfie a mod tag. We’d have like 5 posters posting. Everyone else would be cancelled, or eaten like fried squirrels. 
 

Nothing wrong with a glancing light event. Take what the 80s give ya…

Not really. But I’d be cleaning up the storm threads that have the nonsense that we just saw.  There’s no place for it. Ya, it doesn’t look great for the threat currently, but it’s not the end of winter either.  That’s what would get removed. As Will did. 

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