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Monitoring some form of significant ( to be determined more precisely) impact winter storm, Jan 16/17th. Moderate seems to be the upper limit - for now


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  On 1/13/2024 at 3:29 AM, 78Blizzard said:

Getting back to that talk earlier about cutters not moving for 20 runs - they do move, but while that last cutter may have moved here and there during those runs, it still ended up in almost the same spot at go time as the GFS showed 17 runs earlier.  That was all the archive would allow me to backtrack.  But for our coastal storms, how many times do we get 17 runs that show the storm position at go time in almost the same position as the one 17 runs earlier?

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_2.png

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_18.png

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This is basically what I was referencing 

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  On 1/13/2024 at 3:36 AM, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Icon is unbelievably weak sauce 

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If the ICON showed a bomb instead of the widespread light 2-4”, would it move the needle for you?

ICON is a model where if it hits good, it’s a crappy model so don’t trust it.  If it shows a less than desired outcome, it’s probably correct.

 

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