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Monitoring some form of significant ( to be determined more precisely) impact winter storm, Jan 16/17th. Moderate seems to be the upper limit - for now

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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ORH_wxman
ORH_wxman

I just cleaned up this thread…what an embarrassment for some of you. Act like you’ve posted on the forums before and didn’t just get here from accuwx forums.   This is still a storm thread.

ORH_wxman
ORH_wxman

If people want to act like children and complain about every threat, they can do it elsewhere. There are still people who log on here to read about the meteorology and actual model discussion of a thr

ORH_wxman
ORH_wxman

It’s actually trended better since 00z but this forum has become an unreadable dumpster fire. 

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Snowcrazed71

Snowcrazed71

Posted
Posted
  On 1/13/2024 at 1:55 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Like I said, it will be time to get nervous, but definitely not impossible.

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Whatever you do, don't let these few leeches get into your head. Between qg ... Allsnow ..  the one they call the Pope ( and if you are there of their cronies ) lol, they're all here to just plant seeds in people's heads to try to make them freak out. That's all they ever try to do. I've learned to not pay attention to anything they say as they bring zero to the table.

Just focus on the good people in here who really are just looking to see exactly how things might play out and are constructive about the information that they give. I said last year that it's not over till the season's over. Last year we lost. Oh well. It sucked of course. But we still have the rest of this month and all of February and even part of March. This is what we do, we keep moving on and not giving up.

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

Posted
Posted
  On 1/13/2024 at 2:01 AM, Snowcrazed71 said:

Whatever you do, don't let these few leeches get into your head. Between qg ... Allsnow ..  the one they call the Pope ( and if you are there of their cronies ) lol, they're all here to just plant seeds in people's heads to try to make them freak out. That's all they ever try to do. I've learned to not pay attention to anything they say as they bring zero to the table.

Just focus on the good people in here who really are just looking to see exactly how things might play out and are constructive about the information that they give. I said last year that it's not over till the season's over. Last year we lost. Oh well. It sucked of course. But we still have the rest of this month and all of February and even part of March. This is what we do, we keep moving on and not giving up.

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Allsnow I put in the same camp as snowman....good poster, knows his shit, but has some bias. The others I don't have much use for.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
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  On 1/13/2024 at 1:55 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Like I said, it will be time to get nervous, but definitely not impossible.

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Yeah you could get skunked the rest of January and then put up a 30 burger in Feb and then all you need is like 11” in March to hit average. But obviously another event or two in January will make it a lot easier. 

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

Posted
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  On 1/13/2024 at 2:12 AM, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah you could get skunked the rest of January and then put up a 30 burger in Feb and then all you need is like 11” in March to hit average. But obviously another event or two in January will make it a lot easier. 

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Especially given the late-bloomer flavor that this season has demonstrated at times....if my region gets hot in a pattern like that, I can pull 60"+ in a month.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted
  On 1/13/2024 at 2:18 AM, WeatherX said:

40/70 jackoff thread. Me me me I I I. Is there a storm threat still for SNE?


.

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Other thread for 1/16 threat. 1/20 is still there on guidance but nothing overwhelming yet that screams we’re going to get crushed. There’s high-end potential though because some classic ingredients are there for a higher end storm if a nice piece of PV lobe breaks off. 
 

As Wonka used to say…”strike that, reverse it. 20th threat talk is in the other thread”…but otherwise everything else I posted was correct. 

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
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  On 1/13/2024 at 2:17 AM, Damage In Tolland said:

At times? We’ve had one snowfall . Unless you mean late blooming Rainers 

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Both storm threats next week have been kind of late bloomers more often than not on guidance. There’s been a couple stemwinder runs mixed in but a mostly been lot of last-second development

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

Posted
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  On 1/13/2024 at 2:24 AM, WeatherX said:


Yes and yes! I always enjoy getting judged by a member of the program when they get called out. Humility?


.

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Plenty....I have mastered the art of processing my emotions, good and bad, in lieu of taking the easy/lazy way out and projecting it onto others.

Try it sometime.

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WeatherX

WeatherX

Posted
Posted
  On 1/13/2024 at 2:26 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said:
Plenty....I mastered the art of processing my emotions, good and bad, in lieu of taking the easy/lazy way out and projecting it onto others.
Try it sometime.

Your writing style doesn’t match up with what you project. I always enjoy your well thought out and exhaustive work on your outlooks but I have to admit that you spend too much time defending yourself during the course of your timeline. And when someone pokes you, you get defensive. Think about what you just said about me. “He’s always an asshole when he drinks” You don’t know me dude.


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kdxken

kdxken

Posted
Posted
  On 1/13/2024 at 2:12 AM, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah you could get skunked the rest of January and then put up a 30 burger in Feb and then all you need is like 11” in March to hit average. But obviously another event or two in January will make it a lot easier. 

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Worst two year period ever is still in play no? I think you said Boston needed 22 inches to avoid it?  I think they're sitting a 3 inches now.

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

Posted
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  On 1/13/2024 at 2:34 AM, WeatherX said:


Your writing style doesn’t match up with what you project. I always enjoy your well thought out and exhaustive work on your outlooks but I have to admit that you spend too much time defending yourself during the course of your timeline. And when someone pokes you, you get defensive. Think about what you just said about me. “He’s always an asshole when he drinks” You don’t know me dude.


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Not sure what you mean by the bolded.

I apologize. You are right....I overreacted. But there is a history of you getting pretty nasty at times in the past, which is what elicited that reaction. 

Again, my bad...and sorry for cluttering the thread.

 

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WeatherX

WeatherX

Posted
Posted
  On 1/13/2024 at 2:44 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said:
Not sure what you mean by the bolded.
I apologize. You are right....I overreacted. But there is a history of you getting pretty nasty at times in the past, which is what elicited that reaction. 
Again, my bad...and sorry for cluttering the thread.
 

No doubt I can be nasty. I admit. I hold you to a higher standard though because you do what most of us can’t do. Can we please get a fucking snower for us?


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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted
  On 1/13/2024 at 2:44 AM, kdxken said:

Worst two year period ever is still in play no? I think you said Boston needed 22 inches to avoid it?  I think they're sitting a 3 inches now.

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Yes. They’ll have a legit shot at it if they go into February at 3.8”. But I have a feeling the upcoming week is going to put a dent in it…even if neither system is a blockbuster. 

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78Blizzard

78Blizzard

Posted
Posted

Getting back to that talk earlier about cutters not moving for 20 runs - they do move, but while that last cutter may have moved here and there during those runs, it still ended up in almost the same spot at go time as the GFS showed 17 runs earlier.  That was all the archive would allow me to backtrack.  But for our coastal storms, how many times do we get 17 runs that show the storm position at go time in almost the same position as the one 17 runs earlier?

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_2.png

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_18.png

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