Monitoring some form of significant ( to be determined more precisely) impact winter storm, Jan 16/17th. Moderate seems to be the upper limit - for now

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Funny how the compression and velocity doesn't impact the cutters...they phase just fine.

Look at the last couple cutters. Barely moved inside a week. I know we say nobody cares iut goes from Detroit to Buffalo, but these literally were in the same spots for 20 runs 

[Snowcrazed71]

5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Wrong 

What makes you so sure that it's going to be higher? Trust me, I hope you're right, but you always have very high hopes things being at the highest potential, but they don't actually come to fruition. Let's hope the models change their tunes in the next couple of days

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Look at the last couple cutters. Barely moved inside a week. I know we say nobody cares iut goes from Detroit to Buffalo, but these literally were in the same spots for 20 runs 

Miami rule porks us, but Chicago doesn't have an issue with a Brownsville rule. 

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Look at the last couple cutters. Barely moved inside a week. I know we say nobody cares iut goes from Detroit to Buffalo, but these literally were in the same spots for 20 runs 

No they weren’t. That cutter on Tuesday was wobbling like 300 miles at a time in the week leading up to it. Dendrite even posted an animation when someone claimed cutters don’t move. I honestly don’t understand the memory-holing of this concept every time we point it out. Is it some sort of defense mechanism? Cognitive dissonance? I’m just not sure why people ALWAYS make that type of claim. 
 

Im not just picking on you here…so many others do it. 

[MJO812]

Eps is slightly further east than 12z.

 

I wonder if the cutter is messing with the models .

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

What makes you so sure that it's going to be higher? Trust me, I hope you're right, but you always have very high hopes things being at the highest potential, but they don't actually come to fruition. Let's hope the models change their tunes in the next couple of days

Same reason people confidently say it’s going to whiff when they actually don’t know. There’s this need to be “first” or maybe people just want to pretend to know…not sure the psychology behind it, but it goes in both directions before every threat. 
 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, MJO812 said:

Eps is slightly further east than 12z.

 

I wonder if the cutter is messing with the models .

What a cosmic butt-plug of a solution that is.

[Damage In Tolland]

8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Funny how the compression and velocity doesn't impact the cutters...they phase just fine.

Worried?

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Worried?

Not really about a total whiff...I agree with Scooter that it will be something lame, but the real deal should be the 20th.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I may unleash a throwback melt if the 20th butt-plugs.

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Worried?

He’s def teetering a bit. You can feel it in the tone of the posts. 
 

Honestly, this system has had a LOT of spread the entire time. Nobody should be confident of any solution. You have some larger scale positives but then some other negatives like compression/velocity….we don’t know which one will win. When you have an ensemble suite at only 102-108 hours out with some 980mb members sitting over ACK and then some weak strung out lows near Bermuda, that tells you all you need to know about confidence. 

 

[apm]

29 minutes ago, weathafella said:

I didn’t think that was settled since it only goes to 90 hours.   I didn’t think it was a terrible look at hour 90.

The ensembles are slip sliding away. As Steve says, beware of the horse.

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

He’s def teetering a bit. You can feel it in the tone of the posts. 
 

Honestly, this system has had a LOT of spread the entire time. Nobody should be confident of any solution. You have some larger scale positives but then some other negatives like compression/velocity….we don’t know which one will win. When you have an ensemble suite at only 102-108 hours out with some 980mb members sitting over ACK and then some weak strung out lows near Bermuda, that tells you all you need to know about confidence. 

 

The frustration will begin to propagate a bit if this whiffs....but I may split if the 20th whiffs.

[Damage In Tolland]

4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

He’s def teetering a bit. You can feel it in the tone of the posts. 
 

Honestly, this system has had a LOT of spread the entire time. Nobody should be confident of any solution. You have some larger scale positives but then some other negatives like compression/velocity….we don’t know which one will win. When you have an ensemble suite at only 102-108 hours out with some 980mb members sitting over ACK and then some weak strung out lows near Bermuda, that tells you all you need to know about confidence. 

 

You can see by the tenor of his posts. Def had a jack pot in Metheun in mind. This never had that look. These always throw back a nice midlevel band where everyone gets snow . 1-3 NY border.. 3-6 river area and 4-8 east 

[RCNYILWX]

Miami rule porks us, but Chicago doesn't have an issue with a Brownsville rule. 

We actually missed the goods west and northwest lol. Some 2-3" LES like rates early this morning though and a gravity wave/wake low feature produced a 48 kt gust at ORD. So short lived fun and then rain while western IL cleans up, with Moline, IL up near 15".

Totals for the heart of the metro today were only in the 4-7" range (around 5" for the Chicago sites), while the far northwest burbs got up around 10". We should get some light accums tonight but definitely a disappointing near miss. There's 0 snow left OTG in downtown Chicago, as they warmed up to the upper 30s and had close to half an inch of rain.

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The frustration will begin to propagate a bit is this whiffs....but I may spit if the 20th whiffs.

Yeah you need to get some hits since we didn’t back into any events in December and didn’t get either cutter this week to work itself into a more respectable SWFE….when you bat .000 in those, you need to take advantage of your more favorable setups if you want an AN snow season in New England. We can’t just get one or two storms to do it like the Mid-Atlantic. Esp away from the coast. We need a steady diet of warning events. 
 

If 00z all trends SE then this threat is prob done. But I don’t have much confidence what it’s going to do given ensemble spread. 

[MJO812]

DT expects the models to trend west .

[FXWX]

20 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Funny how the compression and velocity doesn't impact the cutters...they phase just fine.

That's what I think of all the time... I don't doubt Tip's velocity / compression issues, but I do wonder why there "appears" to be less of an impact on the Midwest bomb events.  Now I may be completely wrong,and I've really studied it, but it's just a general sense I get from watching multiple potent Midwest cutters over the last few years.  

[SouthCoastMA]

after only getting .5" of snow last week, I may be prone to some melting if the 17th and 20th both falter. I'm not out yet though; I think one of these will pan out 

[qg_omega]

19 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I may unleash a throwback melt if the 20th butt-plugs.

You had a HECS this year, if you get nothing rest of year you are good

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

27 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

No they weren’t. That cutter on Tuesday was wobbling like 300 miles at a time in the week leading up to it. Dendrite even posted an animation when someone claimed cutters don’t move. I honestly don’t understand the memory-holing of this concept every time we point it out. Is it some sort of defense mechanism? Cognitive dissonance? I’m just not sure why people ALWAYS make that type of claim. 
 

Im not just picking on you here…so many others do it. 

I acknowledged that most of the time they move a lot and nobody cares. I just thought these particular couple Of times there wasn’t much movement as we moved inside a week.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

17 minutes ago, apm said:

The ensembles are slip sliding away. As Steve says, beware of the horse.

 

The mean is halfway to Bermuda with a lot of clustering even further away. You are talking a handful of solutions, maybe that get anything in.

[Damage In Tolland]

10 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

DT expects the models to trend west .

Dick!

[Damage In Tolland]

4 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

The mean is halfway to Bermuda with a lot of clustering even further away. You are talking a handful of solutions, maybe that get anything in.

You do realize that’s a good look for accumulating snow ?

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

You do realize that’s a good look for accumulating snow ?

Where? Georges Bank?

Maybe it snows, but I think people are being kind of disingenuous about how much work this needs for a threat that’s 100 hours out.

[Damage In Tolland]

3 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Where? Georges Bank?

Maybe it snows, but I think people are being kind of disingenuous about how much work this needs for a threat that’s 100 hours out.

It’s a light to moderate snowfall . That’s all this ever was. What’s wrong with that in a winter that doesn’t snow much? People are nuts 

[Snowcrazed71]

5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

It’s a light to moderate snowfall . That’s all this ever was. What’s wrong with that in a winter that doesn’t snow much? People are nuts 

Well, I think we're all nuts sometimes. Including you... Lol

A lot of people are an edge now. Think started to look really good and now we see what it looks like the possibility of things falling apart.

As far as this event were looking at, no one ever knew if it was going to be a light event, moderate event, or a big event. And no one was a definite. Let's just see how the models pan out over the next couple of days for the storm on Tuesday and go from there. Everyone needs to cool their jets.

[40/70 Benchmark]

32 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

You can see by the tenor of his posts. Def had a jack pot in Metheun in mind. This never had that look. These always throw back a nice midlevel band where everyone gets snow . 1-3 NY border.. 3-6 river area and 4-8 east 

No, I've always said this had moderate upside. The large potential looms.

[40/70 Benchmark]

22 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

You had a HECS this year, if you get nothing rest of year you are good

I have 19.5" and I average over 60", which I haven't sniffed in 6 years, first of all...second, I need it to snow near the coast, too.

[Allsnow]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I have 19.5" and I average over 60", which I haven't sniffed in 6 years, first of all...second, I need it to snow near the coast, too.

You’re going to need next week to produce if you want to get to 60 inches this season