Monitoring some form of significant ( to be determined more precisely) impact winter storm, Jan 16/17th. Moderate seems to be the upper limit - for now

[STILL N OF PIKE]

17 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

GEPS with a big jump SE and weak interesting  considering the op look… 

Gonna need EPS to look good 

[Prismshine Productions]

12z GEFS

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[40/70 Benchmark]

44 minutes ago, weathafella said:

The heavy rain it gives you?

 

40 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

3-4" then rain I guess.

 

36 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Yeah lol, it’s wet 

I'll take several inches and rain over a few inches of sand.

[dmillz25]

Nice improvement on the Euro

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

17 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

 

 

I'll take several inches and rain over a few inches of sand.

I’ll pass on both if we are being honest. Dont need anymore flooding 

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, dmillz25 said:

Nice improvement on the Euro

Just want to see the EPS.

[CoastalWx]

21 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

 

 

I'll take several inches and rain over a few inches of sand.

Edibles?

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Edibles?

Ya mutha?

[Torch Tiger]

Yeah, offshore fringe jobs are boring. Hopefully this one is amped and west!

[Snowcrazed71]

36 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

She’s gone 

You always know when to jump in..... You're like lice

[40/70 Benchmark]

Look at the difference in the PNW at hr 129

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

You always know when to jump in..... You're like lice

At least it can only bite five times.

[George001]

Euro is way north this run, still out to sea but it’s very close.

[weathafella]

That's a pretty big jump NW on the 12z Euro vs 0z.

[Damage In Tolland]

Euro went from sunny and 22 at 00z to 1-3” and snowy at 12z. She coming hard. 

[Prismshine Productions]

We should all know by now the NW trend is inevitable...

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[40/70 Benchmark]

NS gets a decent storm.

[ORH_wxman]

Can’t complain about that move by the Euro. Solid improvement. 

[Typhoon Tip]

4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Can’t complain about that move by the Euro. Solid improvement. 

the continuity fluctuations are wildly large by this model - spectacularly unlike it for < D5

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

the continuity fluctuations are wildly large by this model - spectacularly unlike it for < D5

Did you see what you were looking for at all with respect to that flow bifurication?

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

the continuity fluctuations are wildly large by this model - spectacularly unlike it for < D5

I feel like that’s occurring across all guidance but you are right it’s more unusual for the Euro to have decent sized swings inside of D5. This is a system huge problem on model guidance for some reason. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I posted this sequence below ( from the GFS to make the point -) in the NYC thread. I feel fairly confident the majority of sensitivity leading up to this event is coming down to this flow bifurcation phenomenon that is illustrated ... This handling appears to be the source/origin for the S/W in contention - there is likely either errors in sampling relative to either idea ... OR, the physics after the fact is exposing one or the other as having an an issue with ballast - how much recedes vs gets injected downstream ...

1

2

3

 

6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Did you see what you were looking for at all with respect to that flow bifurication?

@Damage In Tolland

[tamarack]

48 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

 

 

I'll take several inches and rain over a few inches of sand.

You might change your mind if you had to negotiate our glare ice driveway.  It needs some white "gravel", soon.  2-4" cornmeal, packed, would be very welcome.

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, tamarack said:

You might change your mind if you had to negotiate our glare ice driveway.  It needs some white "gravel", soon.  2-4" cornmeal, packed, would be very welcome.

I'd shovel it before it froze.

[dryslot]

No changes.

[dendrite]

There was no shoveling what we got the other night. 4-6" with a flip at midnight and another 1-2"+ rain on top of that.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, dendrite said:

There was no shoveling what we got the other night. 4-6" with a flip at midnight and another 1-2"+ rain on top of that.

I would. I shoveled the 9" of paste with 10" of fluff on top last weekend....took 3 hours, but I managed.

[WinterWolf]

32 minutes ago, weathafella said:

That's a pretty big jump NW on the 12z Euro vs 0z.

I tried to tell T Flizz this earlier…she jumps big time now. 

[ORH_wxman]

Better on eps 

 

[dendrite]

6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I would. I shoveled the 9" of paste with 10" of fluff on top last weekend....took 3 hours, but I managed.

OK Raymond Coleman.

I'm going to guess our driveways are a little larger than yours and mine is sand/gravel so it can be a PITA with a shovel.