RDRY Posted January 12, 2024 Share Posted January 12, 2024 On 1/12/2024 at 1:41 PM, Typhoon Tip said: Yup ... What just saying the same thing to Seymour' ... I just can't help but think about the Boxing Day event in 2010. That one was on fumes even mere 48 or 60 hours ahead and out of nowhere we were left to trust the NAM ( ETA?) ...which seemed to be the first to pick it back up. But even then it was dubious because the NAM had ( and may still have) a NW bias over the western Atlantic as one of many in it's various idiotic charms. Then the 06z Euro marched back... what? and all the sudden, 12z runs start pouring in big event out of seemingly nowhere. That was an event that had considerable presentation when in the deeper middle range but was lost for 2 or even 3 days... Expand My recollection was a GFS run that brought it back full force, which was then discarded for initialization errors. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted January 12, 2024 Share Posted January 12, 2024 Let's face, most of you are expecting the euro to have this over my or ackwaves' noggin in 12 to 18 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 12, 2024 Share Posted January 12, 2024 On 1/12/2024 at 2:25 PM, SouthCoastMA said: Let's face, most of you are expecting the euro to have this over my or ackwaves' noggin in 12 to 18 hours. Expand I could see it going near our just outside of the BM, too...I just don't buy a clean whiff right now. It could end up a se MA JP, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 12, 2024 Author Share Posted January 12, 2024 I posted this sequence below ( from the GFS to make the point -) in the NYC thread. I feel fairly confident the majority of sensitivity leading up to this event is coming down to this flow bifurcation phenomenon that is illustrated ... This handling appears to be the source/origin for the S/W in contention - there is likely either errors in sampling relative to either idea ... OR, the physics after the fact is exposing one or the other as having an an issue with ballast - how much recedes vs gets injected downstream ... 1 2 3 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 12, 2024 Share Posted January 12, 2024 On 1/12/2024 at 2:23 PM, RDRY said: My recollection was a GFS run that brought it back full force, which was then discarded for initialization errors. Expand Yes that’s how I remember it too…and it was discarded by NWS because of convective feedback errors they said. Lol. Then everything came on board and they had to count it in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted January 12, 2024 Share Posted January 12, 2024 On 1/12/2024 at 2:30 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: I could see it going near our just outside of the BM, too...I just don't buy a clean whiff right now. It could end up a se MA JP, though. Expand I agree, hard to buy the Euro. I'm leaning inside the benchmark close to Nantucket. I'd be surprised if the Euro doesn't course correct somewhat by 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 12, 2024 Share Posted January 12, 2024 On 1/12/2024 at 3:03 PM, SouthCoastMA said: I agree, hard to buy the Euro. I'm leaning inside the benchmark close to Nantucket. I'd be surprised if the Euro doesn't course correct somewhat by 12z Expand Especially if the GFS is a hit at 12z. If the 12z shats the bed in 45 minutes, then we’ll have a different story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 12, 2024 Share Posted January 12, 2024 On 1/12/2024 at 3:03 PM, SouthCoastMA said: I agree, hard to buy the Euro. I'm leaning inside the benchmark close to Nantucket. I'd be surprised if the Euro doesn't course correct somewhat by 12z Expand Getting kind of close for large jumps. Think it’s going to have to move a lot at 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 12, 2024 Author Share Posted January 12, 2024 This may also help if interested... I put this in the NY City thread - a bit of an extended evalution/more discrete, regarding the EPO relay of ...whatever is ultimately going to be so - "....the N/stream additional S/W power at mid (500 mb) level 72hours diving S out of western Canada in the GFS that the Euro doesn't have - sort of resembles an 'intermediate jet stream' feature. The GFS phases ... which leads to more power getting relayed E than the Euro, which doesn't perform this phenomenon because it doesn't "see" that middle stream mechanical influence. Here... I just didn't want to get too detailed in the previous post .. but all this is ultimately coming from the complex handling over the EPO domain. What is actually going to get sent down river determines what's tumbling over the dam 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 12, 2024 Share Posted January 12, 2024 On 1/12/2024 at 3:13 PM, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Getting kind of close for large jumps. Think it’s going to have to move a lot at 12z Expand The Euro isn’t like that anymore..it makes big jumps now. Not the same old stable girl she used to be. She’s a szchitso now. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 12, 2024 Share Posted January 12, 2024 On 1/12/2024 at 2:25 PM, SouthCoastMA said: Let's face, most of you are expecting the euro to have this over my or ackwaves' noggin in 12 to 18 hours. Expand I'm praying it will actually. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 12, 2024 Author Share Posted January 12, 2024 ICON unlikely to hit it on this particular 12z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 12, 2024 Share Posted January 12, 2024 On 1/12/2024 at 3:25 PM, Typhoon Tip said: ICON unlikely to hit it on this particular 12z run Expand It’s a hit, but weak sauce Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 12, 2024 Share Posted January 12, 2024 On 1/12/2024 at 3:25 PM, Typhoon Tip said: ICON unlikely to hit it on this particular 12z run Expand It didn’t hit last night at 0z either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 12, 2024 Author Share Posted January 12, 2024 This ICON run did exactly what I'm discussing... If you go back along it's recent run cycles, those that have the intermediate stream wind max --> phase and boom. Those that don't... whiff or less. I feel pretty confident we've identified the gremlin here - 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 12, 2024 Author Share Posted January 12, 2024 On 1/12/2024 at 3:27 PM, WinterWolf said: It didn’t hit last night at 0z either. Expand I'm pretty sure I know why - been posting about it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 12, 2024 Share Posted January 12, 2024 On 1/12/2024 at 3:26 PM, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: It’s a hit, but weak sauce Expand That's pretty good. If you want a big hit, you'll probably enjoy rain with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 12, 2024 Share Posted January 12, 2024 On 1/12/2024 at 3:28 PM, Typhoon Tip said: This ICON run did exactly what I'm discussing... If you go back along it's recent run cycles, those that have the intermediate stream wind max --> phase and boom. Those that don't... whiff. I feel pretty confident we've identified the gremlin here - Expand So obviously that icon didn’t have that wind max involved in that run I take it, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 12, 2024 Author Share Posted January 12, 2024 yeah... this run of the ICON ( actually, I'm not sure I ultimately feel secure in talking like this model is worth it, but - ) may be like the "floor" event when sans a more substantive upstream phase as we've been discussing over the last hour. It's not a bad solution... 3-5" er. Low end plowable 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 12, 2024 Author Share Posted January 12, 2024 On 1/12/2024 at 3:29 PM, WinterWolf said: So obviously that icon didn’t have that wind max involved in that run I take it, right? Expand It's just missing it/or less in the same time and space, yeah. Closer analysis ( because I like giving myself migraines apparently... ), it does have an intermediate region wind max at hour 54 though/ about 12 hours faster as a single run correction unto itself - it could be that this run just moved it ahead - that position change then lowers the proficiency of phasing and lends to an eventual "weak saucer" as an option. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 12, 2024 Author Share Posted January 12, 2024 On 1/12/2024 at 3:29 PM, CoastalWx said: That's pretty good. If you want a big hit, you'll probably enjoy rain with it. Expand yeah ha that's a good point. through all of this... kind of needle threading the available cold air when there's limited +PP situated N of the region, huh - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 12, 2024 Share Posted January 12, 2024 Write it off for a loss—my snowblower was just repaired. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted January 12, 2024 Share Posted January 12, 2024 On 1/12/2024 at 3:29 PM, CoastalWx said: That's pretty good. If you want a big hit, you'll probably enjoy rain with it. Expand That still rains here Going to need a GFS like solution or some compromise with Euro to keep the snow locked to the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWx Posted January 12, 2024 Share Posted January 12, 2024 On 1/12/2024 at 3:46 PM, moneypitmike said: Write it off for a loss—my snowblower was just repaired. Expand Mine as well lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted January 12, 2024 Share Posted January 12, 2024 So it looks like the GFS around 66 hrs has less of that windmax....so in theory it would less of a hit? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Henry's Weather Posted January 12, 2024 Share Posted January 12, 2024 Ew Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 12, 2024 Share Posted January 12, 2024 She gone on the gfs. Euro might be about to score Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 12, 2024 Share Posted January 12, 2024 Looks fine with me 5 days out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ariof Posted January 12, 2024 Share Posted January 12, 2024 On 1/12/2024 at 3:06 PM, WinterWolf said: If the 12z shats the bed in 45 minutes, then we’ll have a different story. Expand Well well well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted January 12, 2024 Share Posted January 12, 2024 On 1/12/2024 at 4:03 PM, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: She gone on the gfs. Euro might be about to score Expand I'll take it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now