Monitoring some form of significant ( to be determined more precisely) impact winter storm, Jan 16/17th. Moderate seems to be the upper limit - for now

[40/70 Benchmark]

Theme I am seeing emerge this month is the active N stream that I anticipated last fall as a result of the residual cool ENSO GLAAM. 

I like my spot this year.

[George001]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Theme I am seeing emerge this month is the active N stream that I anticipated last fall as a result of the residual cool ENSO GLAAM. 

I like my spot this year.

You buy the gfs solution?

[DavisStraight]

37 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Cmc looking interesting for the 20

Sure does

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

10 minutes ago, George001 said:

You buy the gfs solution?

Too amplified. I'd bet my scrotum on it.

[40/70 Benchmark]

12 minutes ago, DavisStraight said:

Sure does

 

Another N stream dominated late-bloom job. This season def. has the weaker (relative to ONI) warm ENSO/cool ENSO flavor that I anticipated.

[WxWatcher007]

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Another N stream dominated late-bloom job. This season def. has the weaker (relative to ONI) warm ENSO/cool ENSO flavor that I anticipated.

Is it fair to say that while the late bloom scenarios limit qpf potential back this way it enhances the possibility of colder region wide events? 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Is it fair to say that while the late bloom scenarios limit qpf potential back this way it enhances the possibility of colder region wide events? 

Yes, generally speaking. ...but it could still max out in plenty of time for you. More of an issue further down the coast.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

27 minutes ago, H2Otown_WX said:

And then take a gummy?

That’s a given…

[40/70 Benchmark]

25 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Too amplified. I'd bet my scrotum on it.

Actually, I confused that with the UK. GFS is reasonable.

[Thunderblizzard]

Euro certainly ain't getting it done.

[weathafella]

Euro still well offshore with minimal impact verbatim.  Trying for an inverted trough which could be a sign that we’re heading for a more robust solution in the coming days.

[brooklynwx99]

it's more consolidated, but it remains an outlier

[Ginx snewx]

EPS mean dropping, Euro miss.  Not good TV

[CoastalWx]

6z gfs juicier and warmer.

[Sey-Mour Snow]

33 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

6z gfs juicier and warmer.

zero consistency with anything , total toss up atm IMO .  00z gfs lost tuesday mostly and grabbed the wednesday wave, 06z likes both waves , EURO lost ? Or is the king onto something before everything else .. 6z gefs amped again

[Damage In Tolland]

Here we are Friday, This thing starts Monday night and we still have no clue if it’s gonna rain or snow. What a mess 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Here we are Friday, This thing starts Monday night and we still have no clue if it’s gonna rain or snow. What a mess 

Or miss

[moneypitmike]

3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Here we are Friday, This thing starts Monday night and we still have no clue if it’s gonna rain or snow. What a mess 

Kind of par for the course, no?

[Kitz Craver]

Lol, 0.0 model continuity. 

[CoastalWx]

8 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Here we are Friday, This thing starts Monday night and we still have no clue if it’s gonna rain or snow. What a mess 

Tuesday. You have a fetish of bringing things too early.

[CoastalWx]

19 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

zero consistency with anything , total toss up atm IMO .  00z gfs lost tuesday mostly and grabbed the wednesday wave, 06z likes both waves , EURO lost ? Or is the king onto something before everything else .. 6z gefs amped again

I don’t think it’ll miss. Just my gut.

[Kitz Craver]

I wouldn’t kick the 6z GFS out of bed…

[Damage In Tolland]

16 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Or miss

That’s off the table 

[Damage In Tolland]

9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Tuesday. You have a fetish of bringing things too early.

They always come in faster. Rain or snow in CT will start prior to daybreak 

[UnitedWx]

Show me the 12Z run tomorrow after the cutter, then we can talk about the evolution. Gut says we don't miss to the south

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

27 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

They always come in faster. Rain or snow in CT will start prior to daybreak 

What about the ice?

[Damage In Tolland]

4 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

What about the ice?

That too 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

6z gfs juicier and warmer.

Gefs was nw too. Euro op tossed again. What a pos. If this thing misses then I’ll call it a horse again but as of now, my little pony needs a nap.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

6z gfs juicier and warmer.

I’ll take any other outcome than more rain 

[ORH_wxman]

Having the EPS solidly NW of the OP is kind of a big tell imho. I think there’s a good chance we’ll least see something from this system even if it’s not a direct major hit…though that is certainly still on the table too.