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Monitoring some form of significant ( to be determined more precisely) impact winter storm, Jan 16/17th. Moderate seems to be the upper limit - for now

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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ORH_wxman
ORH_wxman

I just cleaned up this thread…what an embarrassment for some of you. Act like you’ve posted on the forums before and didn’t just get here from accuwx forums.   This is still a storm thread.

ORH_wxman
ORH_wxman

If people want to act like children and complain about every threat, they can do it elsewhere. There are still people who log on here to read about the meteorology and actual model discussion of a thr

ORH_wxman
ORH_wxman

It’s actually trended better since 00z but this forum has become an unreadable dumpster fire. 

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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I'll tell you, this is near the ceiling for 500 mb mechanics in a negative tilt.  Look at that 150 kts leaving the Del Marva, placing SNE right in the cross-hairs of the left exit region - meanwhile.. .the 300 mb level winds are anomalously strong with hints at entrance region situated over NH/ME

image.png.9c56221a0aeee4baf0136c5e0d3a003b.png

Whatever the QPF is on those intervals from HFD to CON you may as well go ahead and assume a meso band or two destroys that estimate.

I mean ... this run in a vacuum.  I have to tell you though, that is the most powerful S/W ( seems to almost be two in there possibly caught in bed together ) I've seen in quite some time passing over that particular region.   150 f'n kts.   That right there is how you overcome the Miami rule - turn the S/W itself into a comet impact.

Also, what's interesting here is the lack of S/stream in this lead up.  The Euro had more ...but utterly abandoned the N/stream on this last 12z run...  It should be Noted that the Euro at one time had a mid 960s mb juggernaut near the Islands... I am thinking about this GFS run ... 'cause, that's what dweebs do.  heh. but, if we were to introduce a S/stream (more so) into that sort of junction ...  yeeeeeah

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WinterWolf

WinterWolf

Posted
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  On 1/11/2024 at 11:21 PM, Typhoon Tip said:

I'll tell you, this is near the ceiling for 500 mb mechanics in a negative tilt.  Look at that 150 kts leaving the Del Marva, placing SNE right in the cross-hairs of the left exit region - meanwhile.. .the 300 mb level winds are anomalously strong with hints at entrance region situated over NH/ME

image.png.9c56221a0aeee4baf0136c5e0d3a003b.png

Whatever the QPF is on those intervals from HFD to CON you may as well go ahead and assume a meso band or two destroys that estimate.

I mean ... this run in a vacuum. 

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Maybe this is the big boy after all? It as hinted at last week by one of the models. 

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WinterWolf

WinterWolf

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  On 1/11/2024 at 11:29 PM, Typhoon Tip said:

I don't know about the 'big boy' heh... but yeah, I added to that post and discussed those Euro runs

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My only point was that one of the big two(Euro or GFS) late last week had a beast for this time frame for the area.  I’m wondering if this is the come back of that idea?  Interesting. 

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

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Don’t fear the sleet…I’d take half a foot of thump and then an inch of sleet to solidify the pack for the cold week in the wake of that system. Not that it’s going to be the final solution so it’s all just fodder. 
 

EPS at 18z will be interesting to see if they come NW too. OP run was probably out to lunch given the ensembles were mostly NW of the OP run. 

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George001

George001

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  On 1/11/2024 at 11:43 PM, ORH_wxman said:

Don’t fear the sleet…I’d take half a foot of thump and then an inch of sleet to solidify the pack for the cold week in the wake of that system. Not that it’s going to be the final solution so it’s all just fodder. 
 

EPS at 18z will be interesting to see if they come NW too. OP run was probably out to lunch given the ensembles were mostly NW of the OP run. 

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Yeah, it’s not a perfect setup but I would take that and run. Half a foot of snow and then an inch of sleet would be a great outcome especially since there is another threat following that is a better setup for the coast. That’s the nice thing about having a good airmass, even if the track isn’t ideal these runs are still giving me a good about of snow before any changeover.

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