Monitoring some form of significant ( to be determined more precisely) impact winter storm, Jan 16/17th. Moderate seems to be the upper limit - for now

[Snowcrazed71]

1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

I’d take another 8” that it shows for me.  That would put me close to 4” ahead of all last year just halfway through January.  I have No issues with that.  But for now, it’s just another solution. 

I think this will come east a bit more since the euro was way out to sea. With all that cold too, it seems odd to be that close. Let's go the in between. I think we'll do just fine

[WinterWolf]

Just now, Snowcrazed71 said:

I think this will come east a bit more since the euro was way out to sea. With all that cold too, it seems odd to be that close. Let's go the in between. I think we'll do just fine

Lots of moving parts still to figure out. So for now we watch and wait. 

[George001]

7 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

I think this will come east a bit more since the euro was way out to sea. With all that cold too, it seems odd to be that close. Let's go the in between. I think we'll do just fine

I would like it to come east, but this solution  fits the 500mb pattern. I don’t think it’s a great pattern for the coast due to the location of the western ridge axis, it’s just too far west. For coastal areas an ideal location for the western ridge is centered over Montana, for this threat it’s centered over Washington. It’s also more of a Miller A rather than a Miller B.

[Zeus]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

What kind of world  is this where the euro is over Bermuda and Gfs tucked?

Regardless of exact location, both seem to slow down timing run by run. I don't mind that consistent march so far, and it seems to tie to a less strung out, more consolidated system.

[Damage In Tolland]

29 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

That would get it done.

There’s our icestorm  LFG!

[George001]

That said, the setup for the 20-21st threat is much better for coastal areas. The ridge axis is centered over Montana for that one and the blocking is starting to weaken a bit. 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

10 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

There’s our icestorm  LFG!

Too cold most of the column it would just be sleet 

[WeatherX]

18z Gefs are mostly a crowd pleaser


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[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

11 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

There’s our icestorm  LFG!

Alotta sleet verbatim. 

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Too cold most of the column it would just be sleet 

Ya..that’s just another solution, there won’t be an ice storm lol. 

[WeatherX]

WOR dudes really pleading their case.


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[Damage In Tolland]

2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Alotta sleet verbatim. 

That’s an icestorm though right? 

[Ginx snewx]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

That’s an icestorm though right? 

Premature Ethreadulation

[WxWatcher007]

2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Ya..that’s just another solution, there won’t be an ice storm lol. 

It’s snow or whiff here. An ensemble compromise is nice. 

[ineedsnow]

4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

That’s an icestorm though right? 

no 

[WinterWolf]

Just now, ineedsnow said:

no 

Lol…maybe not even a glaze. 

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, ineedsnow said:

no 

Ginx crushed 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

That’s an icestorm though right? 

I don’t view sleet as an ice storm. 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

Several bombs (975mb range) , at least half of the gefs members have bombs going past benchmark into Gulf of Maine.. Huge mean this far out 5-7" for most of this forum on GEFS. 
 

 

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I don’t view sleet as an ice storm. 

Well either way.. seems like some areas are heading in that direction 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Well either way.. seems like some areas are heading in that direction 

As long as it’s not rain dude I’m game for anything frozen.

[CoastalWx]

Let’s get a tempest for all. Deform WOR, I’ll take the CCB violence, paste for our friend in Sandwich and we all sit back and smoke a cigar.

[WeatherX]

This one looks like a big snower for the SNE crew


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[Sey-Mour Snow]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Let’s get a tempest for all. Deform WOR, I’ll take the CCB violence, paste for our friend in Sandwich and we all sit back and smoke a cigar.

I’m down 

[Damage In Tolland]

2 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

I’m down 

OPP?

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

That storm comes through Houston first and local NWS is discounting the Euro in favor of the Canadian and GFS.  Euro is only one w/ chance for a Houston ice disaster MLK day into Tuesday, although verbatim smidge too warm.  Freakish cold, in the teens.  Freakish except 2/2021 and 12/2022 also had sub 20F nights, 2021 was the power grid failure.  No longer doubt CC, two months over 100F and pushing 110F many days, followed by once every 20 year cold spells happening almost every year means something has changed.

 

What does NBM guidance show?

[Typhoon Tip]

58 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Blows 

You know this.. but we don't sweat it at this range -

 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

OPP?

Ya you know me 

[CoastalWx]

5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

OPP?

You gots to believe, come grab your coat right now, it’s gonna snow?

[Typhoon Tip]

12 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Several bombs (975mb range) , at least half of the gefs members have bombs going past benchmark into Gulf of Maine.. Huge mean this far out 5-7" for most of this forum on GEFS. 
 

 

Not that it means much bur the operational position is on the western limb of that spread - so tfwiw ... it may be easier to ask for it to slip E than to ask all that ens ballast to go toward it