Monitoring some form of significant ( to be determined more precisely) impact winter storm, Jan 16/17th. Moderate seems to be the upper limit - for now

[Typhoon Tip]

Evolving situation but the signals been in place (actually) for many days using pure numerical telecon spread.  

+d(PNA) is already underway leading the period in question.  Slow rise...combined with the apparent velocity soaking of the local hemisphere may have caused the GFS cluster to rush things (heredity of progressive bias in the product suite?) to the point where it smears the event machinery to where it can't happen in erstwhile model cycles.. However, with improvements in the recent EPS ens mean/with spread noted, now beginning to 'convince' the GEFs (farther below) (...notwithstanding also the impressive operational trends) I feel there's enough to thread this event with confidence for something.  It's being placed during a time and space where at least the telecon's have been projecting we're entering a more favorable pattern foot.  Speed of the flow is still an issue, tho. 

Noting the 00z EPS mean and all spread on the western side..

The erstwhile GEFs had been almost entirely absent with this event/time frame ... but rather abruptly on the 12z ( perhaps arguably started on the 6z), we see a coherency with also spread favoring/correction vectoring toward more...

There's also a bit more of a conceptual/spatial aspect, where typically a Lakes cutter ( in this case two, interestingly enough...) is often followed by a planetary wave decay-induced -NAO response that drills the successive storm track(s) farther E.  So that lends to the general scope of what's going on through this current 2 or 3 weeks synoptic adventure. 

Noted that there is an off and on signal for 20th/22nd .. this does not cover that period. 

 

[Go Kart Mozart]

It's funny, but GFS prints out 8" for me.  When I was a kid in the 60s and 70s, a forecast of 4"-8" was a BIG deal in SWCT, and double digit storms were rare as dodo birds.  Now a forecast of 8" is greeted with yawns. 

I guess this is the flip side of the CC burger.

 

[WinterWolf]

That’s still a good storm bro…especially after the last two years. We take. 

[dryslot]

12z Euro is a whiff on the 16/17th.

[weathafella]

Tip starts the thread and the euro immediately says “not so fast!”

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Whiffed lol. Euro is very stable thesedays…

[Damage In Tolland]

Awesome 

[weathafella]

I think if we take an average of the British today (UKMET-Euro) we’d do fine...lol.

[dryslot]

3 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Tip starts the thread and the euro immediately says “not so fast!”

 

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Whiffed lol. Euro is very stable thesedays…

Euro gives the Northeast the middle finger.

[WeatherX]

12z Navgem is a monster, so there's that

[cleetussnow]

Euro be like...

[HoarfrostHubb]

12 minutes ago, WeatherX said:

12z Navgem is a monster, so there's that

George90210 will be psyched

[WinterWolf]

Lol…And folks wonder how these models would handle a triple phaser lol…

[NorEastermass128]

Dr. No is back!  Great consistency. 

[inter]

Thread cancel?

[SnowGoose69]

That insane kicker feature in BC may have had something to do with the Euro completely losing this combined with more confluence but I'd just about bet the house the EPS is more amped...it might be by 20 miles but it won't be flatter

[dryslot]

4 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

That insane kicker feature in BC may have had something to do with the Euro completely losing this combined with more confluence but I'd just about bet the house the EPS is more amped...it might be by 20 miles but it won't be flatter

There was alot going on that run @h5 over the Northeast that flattened the flow, Totally different from 0z.

[George001]

4 minutes ago, inter said:

Thread cancel?

Not when the Navy’s on board

[dryslot]

I would say there a good number of west members on the 12z EPS, It doesn't look like the 12z OP.

[Hazey]

I would ignore that euro run. Must have had a bad burrito or something. No way it's wide right with every other model amped up. Just the euro doing it's usual 3-5 day forecast period tour around the map before it comes back.

[ORH_wxman]

Yeah this does not look like the OP run

 

[WxWatcher007]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah this does not look like the OP run

 

Still seems a little far offshore though? To be clear—would rather have this than the puke we saw verbatim. 

[CoastalWx]

EPS says toss op.

[ORH_wxman]

4 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Still seems a little far offshore though? To be clear—would rather have this than the puke we saw verbatim. 

Yes it’s a bit wide right but not a total miss. Not necessarily the worst spot at D5. 
 

 

[WxWatcher007]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Yes it’s a bit wide right but not a total miss. Not necessarily the worst spot at D5. 
 

 

Thanks for posting. Agree that looks fine at this range. Honestly I’d personally take a little less if it meant everyone could snow. 

[CoastalWx]

I'm all set with trying to see dendrites 600' above my head. Position works for me at 5+days out.

[Sey-Mour Snow]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

I'm all set with trying to see dendrites 600' above my head. Position works for me at 5+days out.

Exactly for us coast folks we much rather pull this NW than SE

[Sey-Mour Snow]

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I'm all set with trying to see dendrites 600' above my head. Position works for me at 5+days out.

Agreed, i hate to take this position, but I’d rather see a whiff than more rain. It’s just insanely wet around here right now 

[WinterWolf]

6 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Nothing wrong with that for a mean at this juncture.