Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 6z Euro: 7 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Euro seems to be ever so slightly easing off on the suppression over the past 3 runs: 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Silas Lang Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Euro took a NW jog of about 50 miles. Big difference in results. And the storm is not even finished at 90 hours. Man, that makes me feel better about this. It's coming more in line with other guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 I like what I'm seeing this morning. But, for documentation purposes we should note the 0z Euro non-event. 6 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Silas Lang Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Euro trend: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Hot dang that GFS is amazing for the eastern valley. Last two runs have between 0.9 and 1.1 inches of QPF falling below freezing with cobb snow totals at 8 inches by Tuesday night and temps crashing to zero by Wednesday morning. It's beautiful. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Yeah, for that thing to even show greater than 2" is incredible at this range lolThat’s like 5” across 40 in Knoxville. That has to be a record . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 We are starting to enter what I call the "tick trend" phase. Gone are the monster shifts run-to-run. Now we should see steady slower trends. At some point we will see a "snap" run where all models converge to a uniform solution. That typically happens in the runs just before or as the energy comes onshore. That happens with this system Saturday. So look for someone to cave today/tmrw. (I think it will be the euro as it's a classic case of an "overtrend" and it will correct back. Not to mention the shift it just made toward gfs at 06.) 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Currently the EURO is just a massive outlier. At 500mb it's just not even close to anything else. the snow map is even more stark. Every model has a great overrunning setup for TN at hr 84. And then the euro is just nothing. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 We are starting to enter what I call the "tick trend" phase. Gone are the monster shifts run-to-run. Now we should see steady slower trends. At some point we will see a "snap" run where all models converge to a uniform solution. That typically happens in the runs just before or as the energy comes onshore. That happens with this system Saturday. So look for someone to cave today/tmrw. (I think it will be the euro as it's a classic case of an "overtrend" and it will correct back. Not to mention the shift it just made toward gfs at 06.)I feel like the next big step Is for the Euro to keep moving in the right direction. She doesn’t have to get on the boat but she needs to at least buy a ticket. Also… need to at a minimum hold serve as today’s storm gets kicked out later this afternoon. However I believe we need option #2 much more than getting the Euro on board. . 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 12 Author Share Posted January 12 Positive overnight trends. The Euro hopefully continues at 12z. It's rarely one to make huge jumps but it could here. Seems like a lot of modeling converged overnight towards a Tennessee special. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 I just like the fact that MRX morning disco did not mention any warm nose issues. . 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 I’ll be honest… I almost didn’t open this after I got up because I expected everything had caved to the Euro. . 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 . 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 12 Author Share Posted January 12 9 minutes ago, PowellVolz said: I’ll be honest… I almost didn’t open this after I got up because I expected everything had caved to the Euro. . We've not even gotten to the under 24 hours rug pulling stage yet. 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 I’ll be honest… I almost didn’t open this after I got up because I expected everything had caved to the Euro. .Yeah I was kind of worried about the same thing. Didn't have time this morning to really check in until now and pleasantly surprised. Not only is GFS doubling down, but looks like Euro might be trending in the right direction. Not a bad place to be this morning.Sent from my Pixel 7 using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 12 Author Share Posted January 12 We are getting NAM'd currently though. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 We've not even gotten to the under 24 hours rug pulling stage yet.I still thought today was the day. Lol… battered snow syndrome . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 12 Author Share Posted January 12 I honestly expected even more from the NAM by looking at it's precip panels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 I won’t get attached to snow wennie mode. I won’t get attached to snow weenie mode. Where is Carver? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 12 Author Share Posted January 12 The NAM is forming a low in the Western Gulf at the end of it's run, it appears. That would be the potential second wave of precip Tuesday. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Yeah I was about to say the NAM is still light compared to 06z rgem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 12 Author Share Posted January 12 6 minutes ago, fountainguy97 said: Yeah I was about to say the NAM is still light compared to 06z rgem The RGEM appears to be amped like the GGEM. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kasper Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Have no fear I am here! I to have been lurking in the background waiting for disappointment lol 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Officially confirmed several loud claps of thunder here at my location. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 12 Author Share Posted January 12 Memphis area is getting smoked this run of the RGEM. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 12 Author Share Posted January 12 @AMZ8990 Should be singing "Oh Canada!" at this point and I'll join him. We may need to change getting "nam'd" to getting "rgem'd". 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 12 Author Share Posted January 12 For posterity. Still ripping over the region at this time. 3 2 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 1 minute ago, John1122 said: @AMZ8990 Should be singing "Oh Canada!" at this point and I'll join him. We may need to change getting "nam'd" to getting "rgem'd". Heck yeah! I will sing it loud and proud, lol. What a run!! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 RGEM forms a low in the western GOM as well. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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