Matthew70 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 4 minutes ago, PowellVolz said: I didn’t realize how amped the CMC was. Good grief . Crazy uncle has had too much moonshine. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 12 Author Share Posted January 12 4 minutes ago, PowellVolz said: I didn’t realize how amped the CMC was. Good grief . It looks like the Euro from maybe 48 hours ago. It was amped and putting 50s in East Tennessee. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Some of these GEFS members are going to be monsters for ETN 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Man the gfs is just absurd for cold. 9+ days most of the state below freezing starting Sunday. Those with snow cover have 5+ nights in the single digits or 0. my wallet is thin as it is lol. Heat bills are going to be crazy. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 12 Author Share Posted January 12 The UKIE was even better than 12z for the whole forum. Don't have a ratio'd map for it but it's especially huge for the Plateau and West but still 3-5 over a lot of the East. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Silas Lang Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 6 minutes ago, fountainguy97 said: Man the gfs is just absurd for cold. 9+ days most of the state below freezing starting Sunday. Those with snow cover have 5+ nights in the single digits or 0. my wallet is thin as it is lol. Heat bills are going to be crazy. This weather could be historic regardless of snow. I don't know what the record is for staying below freezing is in Tennessee, but I have think what the GFS is showing is a pretty big deal. I can remember maybe 3 days below freezing in a row. Nuts what is being advertised. We are not ready or equipped for this! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 By the 0z GFS having low sitting about 50 miles from Hatteras its another shift westward. Today the GFS has shifted the low track about 200 miles total westward. If we can get this thing running inside Hatteras like through Albemarle Sound that back far western precip shield will include Nashville. For GFS that is a trend westward with the low track on the operational through the day today. Also even as modeled the precip shield both north and west extent is under modeled likely as we see in these storms pretty much every year for as far as I can remember.Sent from my Pixel 7 using Tapatalk 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 12 Author Share Posted January 12 Non-ratio'd UKIE 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 12 Author Share Posted January 12 The UKIE, which in my memory has generally had a warm bias, is incredibly cold after the storm. It's got -20s showing up in East Tennessee on Wednesday morning. -14 in Knoxville. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 What I don’t understand is why do they even have the ukie/cmc/icon & some other models? These models are wrong 99% of the time. Why not just have the GFS/Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Quick search for streaks below freezing (have to go back to 1890's): Nashville : 9 days Knoxville: 10 days So while tracking snow is fun, we could possibly looking at at least a top 5 historic cold streak. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 17 minutes ago, TellicoWx said: Quick search for streaks below freezing (have to go back to 1890's): Nashville : 9 days Knoxville: 10 days So while tracking snow is fun, we could possibly looking at at least a top 5 historic cold streak. And potentially the second winter in a row with coldest of winter for many when the MJO is strong in the MC. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 We're so back 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 NAM looks fun. Very much inline with 00z gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 8 minutes ago, fountainguy97 said: NAM looks fun. Very much inline with 00z gfs. The NAM gas been pretty off recently. Something I've noticed is that it's been under forecasting precipitation values in recent weeks by a couple inches... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 4 minutes ago, Met1985 said: The NAM gas been pretty off recently. Something I've noticed is that it's been under forecasting precipitation values in recent weeks by a couple inches... yeah it is often too dry. RGEM is juicy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 6z GFS paste job 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Silas Lang Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Let's all appreciate this possible solution. Think everyone would be happy with this! 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 4 minutes ago, Silas Lang said: Let's all appreciate this possible solution. Think everyone would be happy with this! GFS had so much fun it's said let's do it again right after that storm 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Big jump on the 6z GEFS mean statewide..subzero mean temps starting to show up as well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 While the crazy uncles Op has wavered...I will say it's Ensemble has been steady the last few days. 0z CMC Ensemble mean 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Even the ever stingy NBM is looking acceptable this morning: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 An ancient weenie rule, so prepare your bodies. The NAVGEM used to be considered to have the most progressive bias, so if it was more amped than some of the more reliable global OPs, it was a good bet that they would adjust to a more amped solution: 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 9 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: Even the ever stingy NBM is looking acceptable this morning: Yeah, for that thing to even show greater than 2" is incredible at this range lol 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Final piece of the puzzle maybe @Holston_River_Rambler...MRX AFD this morning: Once we get into the afternoon hours the lapse rates above the low level inversion increase enough that a few hundred J/kg of CAPE may be present in the atmosphere. This is enough to warrant the mention of the possibility for occasional rumbles of thunder, mainly across the central and southern Valley this afternoon. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 You and I are on a similar wave length. I was just reading the AFD too, lol. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 IMO they seemed more optimistic for early next week than usual. Not sure if that is a good or a bad thing for my very weird snow superstitions at his range: Clouds increase on Sunday night into Monday, and light precipitation is forecast to overspread the region during the day on Monday. This will be in response to divergence associated with a strengthening 300mb 140 kt upper jet across the Central Appalachians through the Mid-Atlantic. Low-level convergent 850mb flow will increase and overrun the cold air at the surface. GFS forecast soundings for Monday show a saturated profile through the DGZ with temperatures below freezing through the entire atmosphere. Surface temperatures would likely be in the mid 20s while precipitation is falling which would result in higher SLRs. Deterministic models and ensembles are in good agreement with the setup for Monday. The big question is the exact amounts of QPF. The ECMWF is showing closer to 0.1 inch, the GFS is near 0.3 inch, and the GDPS is around 0.3 inch. With colder temperatures resulting in higher SLR of 12:1 to 16:1 according to the NBM on Monday afternoon through Tuesday morning, any small changes in liquid QPF will create large changes to expected snow totals. At this time, we will continue with around 0.2 inch QPF for this system which is producing a mean of 2 to 3 inches of snow. The NBM probabilities for 1 inch of snow in CHA is around 40 percent, at both TYS and TRI the probability is around 70 percent. As we head into Tuesday, bigger questions arise. The GFS and GDPS are more progressive and negatively tilted with the approaching shortwave and upper trough while the ECMWF is less progressive with this shortwave and results in a weaker surface low. While the deterministic ECMWF shows the weaker solution, many of its ensembles continue to show a stronger system with higher QPF and potential snow on Tuesday. For this reason, there is still a lot of uncertainty on Tuesday about any potential wrap around moisture with this southern low pressure system. With the stronger solution, we likely get another 0.1 to 0.3 QPF, and with the weaker solution, we get near nothing. The GFS ensembles are consistent with the stronger solution which would keep precip, and snow, around through Tuesday night, and perhaps Wednesday morning. These details won`t be resolved for several days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 1 minute ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: IMO they seemed more optimistic for early next week than usual. Not sure if that is a good or a bad thing for my very weird snow superstitions at his range: Clouds increase on Sunday night into Monday, and light precipitation is forecast to overspread the region during the day on Monday. This will be in response to divergence associated with a strengthening 300mb 140 kt upper jet across the Central Appalachians through the Mid-Atlantic. Low-level convergent 850mb flow will increase and overrun the cold air at the surface. GFS forecast soundings for Monday show a saturated profile through the DGZ with temperatures below freezing through the entire atmosphere. Surface temperatures would likely be in the mid 20s while precipitation is falling which would result in higher SLRs. Deterministic models and ensembles are in good agreement with the setup for Monday. The big question is the exact amounts of QPF. The ECMWF is showing closer to 0.1 inch, the GFS is near 0.3 inch, and the GDPS is around 0.3 inch. With colder temperatures resulting in higher SLR of 12:1 to 16:1 according to the NBM on Monday afternoon through Tuesday morning, any small changes in liquid QPF will create large changes to expected snow totals. At this time, we will continue with around 0.2 inch QPF for this system which is producing a mean of 2 to 3 inches of snow. The NBM probabilities for 1 inch of snow in CHA is around 40 percent, at both TYS and TRI the probability is around 70 percent. As we head into Tuesday, bigger questions arise. The GFS and GDPS are more progressive and negatively tilted with the approaching shortwave and upper trough while the ECMWF is less progressive with this shortwave and results in a weaker surface low. While the deterministic ECMWF shows the weaker solution, many of its ensembles continue to show a stronger system with higher QPF and potential snow on Tuesday. For this reason, there is still a lot of uncertainty on Tuesday about any potential wrap around moisture with this southern low pressure system. With the stronger solution, we likely get another 0.1 to 0.3 QPF, and with the weaker solution, we get near nothing. The GFS ensembles are consistent with the stronger solution which would keep precip, and snow, around through Tuesday night, and perhaps Wednesday morning. These details won`t be resolved for several days. Wait until they look at their Ole reliable 6z Dr No (aka NBM) lol 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Just have to keep it together: EDIT (running joke about thunder in the mountains = snow; below is the GOES derived lightning product) 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 This may not be a huge deal, but height fields are a little less suppressed on the 6z Euro over the TN Valley and at hr 84: 6z on left, 0z on right: 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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