fountainguy97 Posted January 12, 2024 Share Posted January 12, 2024 Yeah this is suppressed... almost no initial moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted January 12, 2024 Share Posted January 12, 2024 1 minute ago, fountainguy97 said: Yeah this is suppressed... almost no initial moisture. Icon now GFS leaning towards the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Silas Lang Posted January 12, 2024 Share Posted January 12, 2024 Definitely a noticable jump southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted January 12, 2024 Share Posted January 12, 2024 1 minute ago, Matthew70 said: Icon now GFS leaning towards the Euro. Oh yeah gfs took a monster shift to a whiff. Still ok for Eastern areas but writing is on the wall. Is this the classic case of models losing the storm 4-5 days out and it comes back 3-4 out? Who knows. But I'd not be expecting much for anyone at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 12, 2024 Author Share Posted January 12, 2024 The GFS is popping a gulf low. If we can get it moving NE instead of East it will be nice. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Silas Lang Posted January 12, 2024 Share Posted January 12, 2024 Honestly looks like an in between of the 18z GFS and 12z Euro, clown map wise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted January 12, 2024 Share Posted January 12, 2024 18z top 00z bottom Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted January 12, 2024 Share Posted January 12, 2024 Just now, fountainguy97 said: Oh yeah gfs took a monster shift to a whiff. Still ok for Eastern areas but writing is on the wall. Is this the classic case of models losing the storm 4-5 days out and it comes back 3-4 out? Who knows. But I'd not be expecting much for anyone at this point. Euro is King & always will be. This is a no go. Very Cold & dry. School kids & all of us will hate next week. Useless cold. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted January 12, 2024 Share Posted January 12, 2024 1 minute ago, Matthew70 said: Euro is King & always will be. This is a no go. Very Cold & dry. School kids & all of us will hate next week. Useless cold. Meanwhile the cmc is even further inland and rain for plateau eastward lol. Not over yet but yeah trends today have been rough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsty2001 Posted January 12, 2024 Share Posted January 12, 2024 The good thing is we shouldn't need a lot of precipitation, id imagine the ratios will be higher than 10:1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted January 12, 2024 Share Posted January 12, 2024 I am following Caver lead. No more tracking until it’s 72 hours out! Lol. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 12, 2024 Share Posted January 12, 2024 I am following Caver lead. No more tracking until it’s 72 hours out! Lol.That’s a great idea . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted January 12, 2024 Share Posted January 12, 2024 Honestly that's a good low in the Gulf for ETN. The problem is we don't go negative tilt. The whole trough just slides east instead of pivoting. If it had of gone negative tilt it would have buried the mountains. the problem is the state-wide snow has gone poof today 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 12, 2024 Share Posted January 12, 2024 The good thing is we shouldn't need a lot of precipitation, id imagine the ratios will be higher than 10:11/4” could bring 3-5”. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted January 12, 2024 Share Posted January 12, 2024 Now we have a legit threat...just need a little more diving action lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bigbald Posted January 12, 2024 Share Posted January 12, 2024 I'll count the CMC a win merely bc it's not OTS. Maybe we can end up splitting the difference, get that low back on the coast and moving northwest. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 12, 2024 Author Share Posted January 12, 2024 I wouldn't be surprised to see the Euro and the Canadian look similar at this point. The solutions are literally all over the map across all modeling. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 12, 2024 Share Posted January 12, 2024 Meanwhile the cmc is even further inland and rain for plateau eastward lol. Not over yet but yeah trends today have been rough.Yep… this would be the first system I have ever seen that didn’t trend any with 4-5 days left. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted January 12, 2024 Share Posted January 12, 2024 Still turned out pretty good for ETN. Not often you see the valley get the goods like this. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 12, 2024 Share Posted January 12, 2024 be nice if the CMC would break its losing streak 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 12, 2024 Author Share Posted January 12, 2024 I'm still mainly looking at trends regarding track. QPF will always vary from run to run and small things make big windows 3 or 4 days away. The inconsistencies with this show how many directions the plinko chip can still fall on a given run. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Silas Lang Posted January 12, 2024 Share Posted January 12, 2024 At this point I would rather take my chances with the moisture a la the CMC. I think the cold air will be legit. The Euro was anemic on moisture, which is my worst fear: cold and dry. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 12, 2024 Author Share Posted January 12, 2024 1 minute ago, jaxjagman said: be nice if the CMC would break its losing streak I'd be fine for you guys but man, I could do without the ice on top of the snow! I want power for the single digits! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BNAwx Posted January 12, 2024 Share Posted January 12, 2024 6 minutes ago, John1122 said: I wouldn't be surprised to see the Euro and the Canadian look similar at this point. The solutions are literally all over the map across all modeling. That’s why this is such a great hobby. I’ve experienced both “the thrill of victory and the agony of defeat” within 24 hours of an event. 24 hours worth of modeling is an eternity sometimes. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted January 12, 2024 Share Posted January 12, 2024 6 minutes ago, John1122 said: I wouldn't be surprised to see the Euro and the Canadian look similar at this point. The solutions are literally all over the map across all modeling. Has the Canadian ever been right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted January 12, 2024 Share Posted January 12, 2024 Watch the euro go BOOM tonight. Lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 12, 2024 Share Posted January 12, 2024 At this point I would rather take my chances with the moisture a la the CMC. I think the cold air will be legit. The Euro was anemic on moisture, which is my worst fear: cold and dry. I can only speak about the last couple of systems but the Euro has been pretty light on QPF in my area. Doesn’t mean it’s wrong though. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 12, 2024 Author Share Posted January 12, 2024 The CMC has me at 20 degrees with 750-850mb at about 34f getting almost half an inch of freezing rain and sleet after 4 to 6 inches of paste. I'd probably be powerless for 2 weeks. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 12, 2024 Author Share Posted January 12, 2024 1 minute ago, Matthew70 said: Has the Canadian ever been right? Well, it's the crazy uncle for a reason. It's know for wild solutions but lately it seems to more mirror the GFS or Euro but will still throw a wild pitch now and then. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 12, 2024 Share Posted January 12, 2024 I didn’t realize how amped the CMC was. Good grief . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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