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January 15th-17th 2024 Arctic Blast/Snow Event


John1122
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So far..........The victor will be the later runs of the NBM in my opinion, the ICON in middle and west TN, and track goes to Euro but missed on northern extent of precip(does it have a dry bias???).  The GFS absolutely nailed this with its later runs.  The Canadian/RGEM package looks sketchy over NE TN.  The NAM was terrible - woeful in terms of an amped track.  It was bad enough that I won't use it any more.  The RGEM probably will win track also but lose on northern precip shields, and lose for Chattanooga.    Systems w/ two pulses of snow are notoriously difficult to predict, especially the second.  Onsets(bulk fell after dark) of precip helped middle and west TN as precip arrived at night.  E TN will be fighting daylight today.    In the end, the NBM which blended the modeling probably is going to score the easy win.

And it is important to note...Most of this is preliminary as the second half of this has just reached areas north of 40 in the eastern valley.  But short range model runs are gutting the west side of this second line - and that is where the NAM likely has met its Waterloo.  Knoxville should do really well, and that was on pretty much any model that had breath in its lungs.  El Nino systems tend to over perform on the northern precip shield, and this one did yesterday evening and last night as well.  

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6 minutes ago, tnweathernut said:

Not going to lie.  HRRR is pretty "cringe" for anyone just west of the apps.....  Snowing here in Erwin, guessing a 1-2 mile visibility.

Yeah I'm at 30.2 and actually dropped from 30.4 under this snow. How long can I hold out before the transition? 
 

hrrr was already above 32 hrs ago for me.

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Just now, fountainguy97 said:

Yeah I'm at 30.2 and actually dropped from 30.4 under this snow. How long can I hold out before the transition? 
 

hrrr was already above 32 hrs ago for me.

It's going to be fascinating to watch it play out.  If we can get in the heavy stuff, sometimes it's harder to change it.

 

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1 hour ago, Windspeed said:
1 hour ago, Bill in MS said:
Most Mesoscale models were way off the mark for Desoto County, Mississippi.  Despite snowing all night I have just between 1.5-2 inches.  Many models showed us reaching 7 and 8 inches already.  I will be suprised if we get a storm total of 3 inches.

Some good bands still over Arkansas. You may still do well. That being said, the heavier returns right now are setting up east of you on radar.

The Euro and the NBM did really well with their 3-4 inch predictions for my county.  Thee HRR and NAM etc...were way off.

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One other note on using deterministic global models once inside of 36 hours, they don't have the ability to dial things in like short range models as they lack the hi-res ability to do it.   But somehow, they still outperformed the mess scale models IMHO.  The ultra hi-res, radar based models did well...

So far(and this is like keeping score at halftime), I would rank globals in this order:

1.  ICON

2.  GFS/Euro

3.  CMC(though the CMC picked up on mixing along the mountains first...)

 

Short range modeling(1-2 days out):

....No winners so far.  They were all bad.  I will probably use global deterministic runs in the future and then switch to RAP/HRRR at the last minute.  GFS trends were money at the last minute.  

 

Models inside of 24 hours:

1.  RAP - for middle and west TN.  Not great E TN.  But it picked up the expansion of the precip shield northward.

2.  HRRR

 

***The NBM will win this.  I don't have it ranked as it is technically not a model, but blends other models.  It will be my go-to next time around.***. Each model had its failing and some surprise biases, but the NBM was able to fish out the best outcome IMO.

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We’ve run into a massive problem in Sevier County.. mixing. HRRR has us being stuck in a mix all day. While it looks like it’s snowing hard on radar here, it’s not. This is extremely disappointing and frustrating if it ends up winning out.


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I was literally about to ask about the foothills because 40-50dbz showing up on radar


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