ShawnEastTN Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Ok heaviest snow so far IMBY. Much heavier than last night. If I can keep these rates I can believe an additional 6" or 7" on top of my 2" from last night/early morning. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Highway2Heel Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 After living in Chattanooga for a good while, I’m keenly interested in that neck of the woods breaking their drought. Those long-suffering souls deserve it more than anyone. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bearman Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Looked at Ober Gatlinburg Web cam and it looks like they have a rain snow mix. it is kind of hard to tell but interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reb Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Mixing in Seymour. I’ll call this one the Seymour Bust 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 There's got to be a happy median somewhere between me and the foothills. I'm getting pixie dust fringed wrt flake size. I guess i could have worse problems. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jed33 Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 It’s absolutely ripping here right now! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 You guys getting a good snow need to get better at taking pictures and sharing with us.... Just a casual observation. lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Not going to lie. HRRR is pretty "cringe" for anyone just west of the apps..... Snowing here in Erwin, guessing a 1-2 mile visibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 It's really coming down here. These chickens don't know what to make of it. 10 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlunderStorm Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 9 minutes ago, tnweathernut said: You guys getting a good snow need to get better at taking pictures and sharing with us.... Just a casual observation. lol 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 So far..........The victor will be the later runs of the NBM in my opinion, the ICON in middle and west TN, and track goes to Euro but missed on northern extent of precip(does it have a dry bias???). The GFS absolutely nailed this with its later runs. The Canadian/RGEM package looks sketchy over NE TN. The NAM was terrible - woeful in terms of an amped track. It was bad enough that I won't use it any more. The RGEM probably will win track also but lose on northern precip shields, and lose for Chattanooga. Systems w/ two pulses of snow are notoriously difficult to predict, especially the second. Onsets(bulk fell after dark) of precip helped middle and west TN as precip arrived at night. E TN will be fighting daylight today. In the end, the NBM which blended the modeling probably is going to score the easy win. And it is important to note...Most of this is preliminary as the second half of this has just reached areas north of 40 in the eastern valley. But short range model runs are gutting the west side of this second line - and that is where the NAM likely has met its Waterloo. Knoxville should do really well, and that was on pretty much any model that had breath in its lungs. El Nino systems tend to over perform on the northern precip shield, and this one did yesterday evening and last night as well. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 6 minutes ago, tnweathernut said: Not going to lie. HRRR is pretty "cringe" for anyone just west of the apps..... Snowing here in Erwin, guessing a 1-2 mile visibility. Yeah I'm at 30.2 and actually dropped from 30.4 under this snow. How long can I hold out before the transition? hrrr was already above 32 hrs ago for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 3 minutes ago, Stovepipe said: It's really coming down here. These chickens don't know what to make of it. PRETTY!!! Thanks, Stove....... Those chickens are like. "yeah, NO this sucks" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Just now, fountainguy97 said: Yeah I'm at 30.2 and actually dropped from 30.4 under this snow. How long can I hold out before the transition? hrrr was already above 32 hrs ago for me. It's going to be fascinating to watch it play out. If we can get in the heavy stuff, sometimes it's harder to change it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Closing in on 3" Northern Meigs on the Roane line. View into the woods behind my house. Flakes are small mostly but coming down at a good clip, my phone camera isn't good at picking them up though 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Just now, ShawnEastTN said: Closing in on 3" Northern Meigs on the Roane line. View into the woods behind my house. That's awesome, Shawn. Love snowy scenes. ENJOY! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bill in MS Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 1 hour ago, Windspeed said: 1 hour ago, Bill in MS said: Most Mesoscale models were way off the mark for Desoto County, Mississippi. Despite snowing all night I have just between 1.5-2 inches. Many models showed us reaching 7 and 8 inches already. I will be suprised if we get a storm total of 3 inches. Some good bands still over Arkansas. You may still do well. That being said, the heavier returns right now are setting up east of you on radar. The Euro and the NBM did really well with their 3-4 inch predictions for my county. Thee HRR and NAM etc...were way off. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsty2001 Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Ripping big fatties in greeneville rn 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 2 minutes ago, Dsty2001 said: Ripping big fatties in greeneville rn 5 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jed33 Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Closing in on 2in now 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Down to 29.8 holding the line over here in ETN! Lol the 12z hrrr had me 34 at this time it seems snow came a couple hrs early and has helped lock in the cold. Need rates to stay steady. We will see what happens as the sun really cranks up 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bearman Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 If we can keep tis up we will hit 8 in. I’ll 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 One other note on using deterministic global models once inside of 36 hours, they don't have the ability to dial things in like short range models as they lack the hi-res ability to do it. But somehow, they still outperformed the mess scale models IMHO. The ultra hi-res, radar based models did well... So far(and this is like keeping score at halftime), I would rank globals in this order: 1. ICON 2. GFS/Euro 3. CMC(though the CMC picked up on mixing along the mountains first...) Short range modeling(1-2 days out): ....No winners so far. They were all bad. I will probably use global deterministic runs in the future and then switch to RAP/HRRR at the last minute. GFS trends were money at the last minute. Models inside of 24 hours: 1. RAP - for middle and west TN. Not great E TN. But it picked up the expansion of the precip shield northward. 2. HRRR ***The NBM will win this. I don't have it ranked as it is technically not a model, but blends other models. It will be my go-to next time around.***. Each model had its failing and some surprise biases, but the NBM was able to fish out the best outcome IMO. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Keith Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 I think we have about two inches in Halls. The picture, if it uploads, was from earlier this morning. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 I'm wanting to get through what is to be the heaviest part of the storm before I do my post-mortem and diagnose winners and losers in the modeling department. Next 6-12 hours will tell the story, but that's just me. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Silas Lang Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Two and a half inches here. Accumulating much quicker this last hour. 28 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Dog pic: 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Just now, tnweathernut said: I'm wanting to get through what is to be the heaviest part of the storm before I do my post-mortem and diagnose winners and losers in the modeling department. Next 6-12 hours will tell the story, but that's just me. Probably wise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 There's a battle going on in Unicoi County. Here in town we are alternating between larger and smaller dendrites. I hope this isn't the beginning of a mix or change over, but it's possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 We’ve run into a massive problem in Sevier County.. mixing. HRRR has us being stuck in a mix all day. While it looks like it’s snowing hard on radar here, it’s not. This is extremely disappointing and frustrating if it ends up winning out..I was literally about to ask about the foothills because 40-50dbz showing up on radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now