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January 15th-17th 2024 Arctic Blast/Snow Event


John1122
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Wvlt still sticking to guns here… saying that we are not going to see much. How are they making their forecast? Off the NAM? They are going completely opposite of what the NWS is saying. I find that odd.


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Isentropic lift is increasing, and radar is filling with heavy returns along the TN/AL border. That is all moving NE, and as such, we should see a heavy snowband from SW of Knoxville, the I-75 corridor, up into Holston Valley and the I-81 corridor for the remainder of the day. I haven't really seen any of the mesoscales balk yet. Pretty confident in this snowstorm for a large 4-10" swath up the eastern Tennessee watershed, minus the mixing issues that may persist in the Chattanooga area.
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Most Mesoscale models were way off the mark for Desoto County, Mississippi.  Despite snowing all night I have just between 1.5-2 inches.  Many models showed us reaching 7 and 8 inches already.  I will be suprised if we get a storm total of 3 inches.

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Here in Knoxville I have about an inch maybe a little bit more.  Our roads are struggling to get covered.  We need harder rates to make that happen.  So far IMBY in West Knoxville the snow has been very fine and light. We look to have some bans that are heavier set to move in

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Most Mesoscale models were way off the mark for Desoto County, Mississippi.  Despite snowing all night I have just between 1.5-2 inches.  Many models showed us reaching 7 and 8 inches already.  I will be suprised if we get a storm total of 3 inches.
Some good bands still over Arkansas. You may still do well. That being said, the heavier returns right now are setting up east of you on radar.
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41195de6094d2c23a2ef95f13e96ca13.jpg

Probably half an inch up here in Gatlinburg this AM. It is mixing with freezing rain and sleet at times. This afternoon seems to be when the big show gets started with higher rates and all snow. I’m thinking we have a a pretty high ceiling. I am hoping for 5+. Very pretty this morning.


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1 hour ago, matt9697 said:

I have gotten alot more than this forecast; I am just into Sumner County, West of Gallatin and East of White House, likely have close to 5" on the ground

Good morning! I woke up at 6:15 pm CT to 4.1" in White Bluff. We're now at 5.5-6". MUCH more than I expected...

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I’m a little over 3” now and you can see the radar is matching up to that dollop the mods have shown for 3 or 4 days in the central/eastern valley around Knoxville. This has really grown the last 45 min.

0904851aa6942471cd2c5c3c864cf5b8.png


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So, I know the event is still ongoing...and I need to get caught up on about 15 pages of comments. In terms of modeling W's and L's, how are we breaking down performance? Certainly, NOT a win for the Euro at least for my area...

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7 minutes ago, *Flash* said:

So, I know the event is still ongoing...and I need to get caught up on about 15 pages of comments. In terms of modeling W's and L's, how are we breaking down performance? Certainly, NOT a win for the Euro...

I don't know it's been such a mess on modeling. Of all the globals I think the GFS did best. NAM played catch up with the precip. axis, but has done pretty good on amounts, along with the HRRR. I think the RGEM wins again for short range. 

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10 minutes ago, *Flash* said:

So, I know the event is still ongoing...and I need to get caught up on about 15 pages of comments. In terms of modeling W's and L's, how are we breaking down performance? Certainly, NOT a win for the Euro...

This is kind of trivial but I am curious to understand one thing from the vets on here.

For those of us in the east we were really interested in the low placement off NC.  The track is projecting a near perfect northwest turn, almost slightly inland, but we don't appear to be getting the northwest flow wrap around (?) at the tailend of the storm that the gfs and cmc showed with this track.  For those with the experience, Is the absence of the backend flow due to the result of popping the lee side low?  

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28 minutes ago, *Flash* said:

So, I know the event is still ongoing...and I need to get caught up on about 15 pages of comments. In terms of modeling W's and L's, how are we breaking down performance? Certainly, NOT a win for the Euro...

...a WIN for the Euro in E TN for sure w/ the second line.  The middle and west precip shield was the error on that model and not the track.  The models which were amped with this second wave(E TN) are gonna be wrong, and that includes the NAM.  This second wave is very suppressed.  The initial wave was about right, but the precip shield was underdone to the north.  The NAM whiffed.  The HRRR is shifting east with each run.  Chattanooga is an exception as the Euro was too SE w/ it.

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