Tucker1027 Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 I am hoping we can squeeze out an inch in Chattanooga, but going to be hard.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brocksterdanza Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Wvlt still sticking to guns here… saying that we are not going to see much. How are they making their forecast? Off the NAM? They are going completely opposite of what the NWS is saying. I find that odd. . 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Our storm has a STJ (subtropical jet) connection going well out into the Pacific. Not a terribly strong one, but nice to see that active STJ 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Uncle Nasty Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 This is the stuff that you can't make up. Nothing reaching the ground at our house. Temp is a steady 31° with a Virga storm overhead. The best part is that it is snow everywhere overhead except Chattanooga. A blob of pink. Sent from my SM-S916U using Tapatalk 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 1 inch on the ground here. Still flurries. Waiting on the next wave! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Knoxtron Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 absolutely ripping flakes in the heavier 30dbz returns, up to 3 inches 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The unknown Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Is it just me or is it quite a bit more precip in northern Arkansas right now than what was modeled ? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Wvlt still sticking to guns here… saying that we are not going to see much. How are they making their forecast? Off the NAM? They are going completely opposite of what the NWS is saying. I find that odd. .Isentropic lift is increasing, and radar is filling with heavy returns along the TN/AL border. That is all moving NE, and as such, we should see a heavy snowband from SW of Knoxville, the I-75 corridor, up into Holston Valley and the I-81 corridor for the remainder of the day. I haven't really seen any of the mesoscales balk yet. Pretty confident in this snowstorm for a large 4-10" swath up the eastern Tennessee watershed, minus the mixing issues that may persist in the Chattanooga area. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bill in MS Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Most Mesoscale models were way off the mark for Desoto County, Mississippi. Despite snowing all night I have just between 1.5-2 inches. Many models showed us reaching 7 and 8 inches already. I will be suprised if we get a storm total of 3 inches. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 4 minutes ago, The unknown said: Is it just me or is it quite a bit more precip in northern Arkansas right now than what was modeled ? Looks to me like it is over performing a bit. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jed33 Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Picking up here for sure steady light to moderate snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bearman Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Here in Knoxville I have about an inch maybe a little bit more. Our roads are struggling to get covered. We need harder rates to make that happen. So far IMBY in West Knoxville the snow has been very fine and light. We look to have some bans that are heavier set to move in 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Highway2Heel Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Over 6” in Columbia, TN and snowing hard at the moment. Basically the same north into Franklin/Brentwood/Nashville and south into Giles county. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Most Mesoscale models were way off the mark for Desoto County, Mississippi. Despite snowing all night I have just between 1.5-2 inches. Many models showed us reaching 7 and 8 inches already. I will be suprised if we get a storm total of 3 inches.Some good bands still over Arkansas. You may still do well. That being said, the heavier returns right now are setting up east of you on radar. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jed33 Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Moderate snow now. Temp is 26. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Snowing in Kingsport pretty good now - high side of moderate. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BhamParker Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Probably half an inch up here in Gatlinburg this AM. It is mixing with freezing rain and sleet at times. This afternoon seems to be when the big show gets started with higher rates and all snow. I’m thinking we have a a pretty high ceiling. I am hoping for 5+. Very pretty this morning.. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bigbald Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Gatlinburg really getting it good on radar 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Snowing in Kingsport pretty good now - high side of moderate.Work in progress as the column moistens. It's like flipping on a switch. We've got moderate flakes falling here now just south of Bristol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
*Flash* Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 1 hour ago, matt9697 said: I have gotten alot more than this forecast; I am just into Sumner County, West of Gallatin and East of White House, likely have close to 5" on the ground Good morning! I woke up at 6:15 pm CT to 4.1" in White Bluff. We're now at 5.5-6". MUCH more than I expected... 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Well, as the kids say, it's puking snow outside. Pretty nice to wake up to! Roads are covered and it's a got dang winter wonder land outside. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 I’m a little over 3” now and you can see the radar is matching up to that dollop the mods have shown for 3 or 4 days in the central/eastern valley around Knoxville. This has really grown the last 45 min. . 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
*Flash* Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 So, I know the event is still ongoing...and I need to get caught up on about 15 pages of comments. In terms of modeling W's and L's, how are we breaking down performance? Certainly, NOT a win for the Euro at least for my area... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bearman Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Our Roads have just now covered up and we are now getting good Rates. We have around 2 in. in West Knoxville. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Parts of Nashville has really over performed. My buddy east of Nashville in Mt Juliet has 5-6”. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 We’ve run into a massive problem in Sevier County.. mixing. HRRR has us being stuck in a mix all day. While it looks like it’s snowing hard on radar here, it’s not. This is extremely disappointing and frustrating if it ends up winning out.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 7 minutes ago, *Flash* said: So, I know the event is still ongoing...and I need to get caught up on about 15 pages of comments. In terms of modeling W's and L's, how are we breaking down performance? Certainly, NOT a win for the Euro... I don't know it's been such a mess on modeling. Of all the globals I think the GFS did best. NAM played catch up with the precip. axis, but has done pretty good on amounts, along with the HRRR. I think the RGEM wins again for short range. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bigbald Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 10 minutes ago, *Flash* said: So, I know the event is still ongoing...and I need to get caught up on about 15 pages of comments. In terms of modeling W's and L's, how are we breaking down performance? Certainly, NOT a win for the Euro... This is kind of trivial but I am curious to understand one thing from the vets on here. For those of us in the east we were really interested in the low placement off NC. The track is projecting a near perfect northwest turn, almost slightly inland, but we don't appear to be getting the northwest flow wrap around (?) at the tailend of the storm that the gfs and cmc showed with this track. For those with the experience, Is the absence of the backend flow due to the result of popping the lee side low? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 28 minutes ago, *Flash* said: So, I know the event is still ongoing...and I need to get caught up on about 15 pages of comments. In terms of modeling W's and L's, how are we breaking down performance? Certainly, NOT a win for the Euro... ...a WIN for the Euro in E TN for sure w/ the second line. The middle and west precip shield was the error on that model and not the track. The models which were amped with this second wave(E TN) are gonna be wrong, and that includes the NAM. This second wave is very suppressed. The initial wave was about right, but the precip shield was underdone to the north. The NAM whiffed. The HRRR is shifting east with each run. Chattanooga is an exception as the Euro was too SE w/ it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Uncle Nasty Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 North Hamilton County has reports of moderate snow. Snow started in full force here (Ooltewah) at 9:30am. Big flakes and looked great for 5 minutes. It stopped 5 minutes later. 🫤Sent from my SM-S916U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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