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January 15th-17th 2024 Arctic Blast/Snow Event


John1122
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It has almost completely stoped hear in Knoxville.  We have about a half inch.  Hopefully something changes or we are going to way underperform.  
They said there would be lulls the heavier stuff is yet to come

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16 minutes ago, bearman said:

It has almost completely stoped hear in Knoxville.  We have about a half inch.  Hopefully something changes or we are going to way underperform.  

The HRRR and NAM at least, has the band lifting north of 40 until 8am or so then heavier returns start working back your way. This is basically "bonus" snow with the main part of it still to come. 

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From Facebook nws post
1/15/24 12:00am

HRRR simulated radar solution seems to be spot on with timing tonight, with the Tri-Cities and northern valley expected to see widespread snow showers begin over the next hour.

I wanted to include the forecaster’s discussion from the NWS for those that enjoy reading the take from the local office in Morristown.

For those that don’t want to read the full text, there’s a couple of key items:

1) expect forecast totals to be increased by the overnight crew as current trends with early accumulation support the more robust solutions we’ve been watching over the past couple of days

2) there will be a brief, anticipated lull from around 4am until 8-9am after which the bulk of the heavier precipitation begins to move in and increase throughout the day tomorrow.

An interesting phenomenon, and something I haven’t seen in a long time with a winter storm set up in our area, is watching the HRRR and NAM both capture a “trapping” of the precipitation on our side of the Appalachians. Typically we see lower Valley accumulations and increased totals along the higher elevations of our NC border counties. There’s a distinct accumulation cut off from the foothills of our border counties and the higher elevations. I would anticipate some of the precipitation “stalling,” and potentially increasing accumulation in the Central Valley. It sets up a rare situation where valley accumulations will be potentially higher than that of our mountain locations.

As some of you get up and ready for work tomorrow, be sure to pay attention to any forecast adjustments and monitor live radar before heading out the door. The forecasted “pause” will likely be during the typical rush-hour period. Don’t be lulled into a false sense of security.

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I bought two 12 inch rulers the other day for snow measuring because I have a terrible time holding a measuring tape and taking a photo. They looked funny because they had a blank space before the mark start and after the 12. I measured them with the tape measure and they are 12.5 inches long and have instructions in small letters on starting at the mark instead of the end of the ruler. So here i am at 3:30 in the morning trimming my rulers to their actual measurement to measure snow. 

I at least don't feel so odd after some of the otner revelations tonight. I am baffled that they couldn't just trim the extra off each end of the ruler or set the machine to run them at exactly 12 inches. 

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Just finished driving home (Farragut) from Florida. I am super tired lol.

Anyway, it was chilly all the way down. Around 60 at the beach, mid-upper 40’s near the fl/ga border, around 40 in Atlanta area, started seeing salt on roads around Lake Altoona area temp 38, temp was 34 around tunnel road in far n Georgia and chatty, ooltewah was where I saw light dust on some cars in car lots temp 34, didn’t see first flakes until around Cleveland and some brine, significant difference around sweetwater/philadelphia temp 30 and most everything covered except interstate, made it to house where there’s about an inch of snow-maybe a little less and everything covered, temp 27. Going to read the updated nws forecast then going to sleep


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8 minutes ago, Tucker1027 said:

Chattanooga is going to get screwed… not sure I’ll even see an inch


.

I'm right there with you lol latest hrrr actually barely gives me a flake here in Unicoi. Nice cold rain.
Congrats to the others! If you get 2-4" from this you officially have more snow than most mountain areas so far this winter except the extreme isolated high peaks. 

Warm nose will not be denied for the boarder areas.

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I actually don’t think Chattanooga is going to get screwed. The entire area except eastern Polk has wetbulbed below freezing. There appears to be no mechanism to allow for warming today with precipitation falling, solid cloud cover, and continued push south of Arctic air. We are going to get frozen precipitation, the only question is what form does it take? I hope for more snow, but with the first wave it started as light snow and finished as sleet. Currently it’s 30 degrees with a DP of 27 IMBY. There is a light accumulation of sleet on elevated surfaces. No precip right now. 

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This is about one of the most complex systems I can remember IMBY. Just when I go to throw in the towel, the RAP does a 180. QPF is a major problem from my area, more so than a warm nose. HRRR could be right, but I've never seen the state line on the Skyway stay below freezing while Coker Creek/Rafter doesn't, and Tellico does.

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