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January 15th-17th 2024 Arctic Blast/Snow Event


John1122
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1 minute ago, Matthew70 said:

And they claimed on the game a bit ago it was a record for streaming the game last night.  Well I was not one of them streaming it.  I will not pay peacock to watch.  Greed in college & NFL is ruining a great sport. 

Thats bull shit,of course they did to cover there ass and the NFL to do this.Next year you might be doing the SB as PPV,bunch of greedy ass owners

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Temp 36.3 DP 28.2. That should be enough to wet bulb to 32 or lower. Just need to get some qpf now. So far no flakes on the east side of white oak mtn.

Edit: Right as I posted that, we have tiny flakes. No sleet that I can hear. Appears to be all snow just extremely small flakes.

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Just now, MattPetrulli said:

TYS reporting moderate snow with this band, first real band about to come through.

1744073af9446dd3467edb8399b91f33.jpg

Yeah, crazy that it is just now starting.  Seems like it is leaning towards an over performer,but I guess we will see! 

 

Any reports out west? 

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2 minutes ago, Chattownsnow said:

Precip appears a little south of expectations maybe? Or am I just seeing what I want to see? Lol


.

It looks beefy to me. Which means it looks to encompass more north and south than some of the models indicated. Also considering the fact that I have had snow with zero returns over me is impressive. I was expecting a lot more virga. 

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MRX evening update. Pay special attention to the last part! WPC has upped totals and thinks it will be easy to exceed 8in Central Valley and north! Astounding to say the least!

000
FXUS64 KMRX 150308 AAB
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Morristown TN
1008 PM EST Sun Jan 14 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 944 PM EST Sun Jan 14 2024

A bit late on the evening update here, but wanted to have a little bit to see some early time steps of the 00z guidance and see the radar trends this evening as snow began to make it into our CWA.

Main changes to the forecast were to update the PoP grids to
reflect current radar trends and pretty strong onset of snowfall
pushing into our area over the next 4-6 hours. Have seen several reports from Knoxville and points west that show snowfall accumulating on surfaces already. Albeit light, the fact that it`s already accumulating certainly lends confidence to the increase in
snowfall totals with the afternoon forecast package earlier today.
Current NBM hourly PoPs show this initial wave of precip moving out around 09z, with a distinct lull thereafter through about 13-14z before the main show moves in after daybreak. This seems very reasonable given the latest CAM guidance, but do not want to try and time a 3-4hr lull in precipitation given that it won`t have a significant impact on expected storm total amounts.

Another notable change was to include some sleet and freezing rain precip types down in the Marion county area. NAM forecast
soundings for Huntsville this evening did indeed show a weak warm
nose through much of the overnight hours. Conceptually this would
extend further ENE into our CWA in the warm SWLY flow around
850mb in that region. We`ve had a report of a light glazing in
parts of eastern Marion county which confirms this thinking. Not
expecting this to last as the column will continue to cool and
precip rates increase. But it is in line with the uncertainty in
ptypes, and storm total accumulations for the southern valley and
far southeast Tennessee.

Lastly, WPC has upped the snowfall amounts for the event in the I-40 corridor and points north. Didn`t want to make wholesale changes to the forecast for the evening update, but this trend doesn`t seem unreasonable given what`s already occurring this
evening. And it is worth noting that for the last few days, NBM
and HREF probabilistic guidance has been showing some healthy
probability of seeing storm total snowfall amounts easily
exceeding 8" across portions of the forecast area. Will let the
overnight shift make any substantive changes that are necessary since they will have the full suite of the latest NBM
probabilistic guidance as well as the 00z models at their
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2 minutes ago, Jed33 said:
MRX evening update. Pay special attention to the last part! WPC has upped totals and thinks it will be easy to exceed 8in Central Valley and north! Astounding to say the least!

000
FXUS64 KMRX 150308 AAB
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Morristown TN
1008 PM EST Sun Jan 14 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 944 PM EST Sun Jan 14 2024

A bit late on the evening update here, but wanted to have a little bit to see some early time steps of the 00z guidance and see the radar trends this evening as snow began to make it into our CWA.

Main changes to the forecast were to update the PoP grids to
reflect current radar trends and pretty strong onset of snowfall
pushing into our area over the next 4-6 hours. Have seen several reports from Knoxville and points west that show snowfall accumulating on surfaces already. Albeit light, the fact that it`s already accumulating certainly lends confidence to the increase in
snowfall totals with the afternoon forecast package earlier today.
Current NBM hourly PoPs show this initial wave of precip moving out around 09z, with a distinct lull thereafter through about 13-14z before the main show moves in after daybreak. This seems very reasonable given the latest CAM guidance, but do not want to try and time a 3-4hr lull in precipitation given that it won`t have a significant impact on expected storm total amounts.

Another notable change was to include some sleet and freezing rain precip types down in the Marion county area. NAM forecast
soundings for Huntsville this evening did indeed show a weak warm
nose through much of the overnight hours. Conceptually this would
extend further ENE into our CWA in the warm SWLY flow around
850mb in that region. We`ve had a report of a light glazing in
parts of eastern Marion county which confirms this thinking. Not
expecting this to last as the column will continue to cool and
precip rates increase. But it is in line with the uncertainty in
ptypes, and storm total accumulations for the southern valley and
far southeast Tennessee.

Lastly, WPC has upped the snowfall amounts for the event in the I-40 corridor and points north. Didn`t want to make wholesale changes to the forecast for the evening update, but this trend doesn`t seem unreasonable given what`s already occurring this
evening. And it is worth noting that for the last few days, NBM
and HREF probabilistic guidance has been showing some healthy
probability of seeing storm total snowfall amounts easily
exceeding 8" across portions of the forecast area. Will let the
overnight shift make any substantive changes that are necessary since they will have the full suite of the latest NBM
probabilistic guidance as well as the 00z models at their

Did they hire actual meteorologists lol...their afd have been a tremendous improvement 

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4 minutes ago, Jed33 said:
MRX evening update. Pay special attention to the last part! WPC has upped totals and thinks it will be easy to exceed 8in Central Valley and north! Astounding to say the least!

000
FXUS64 KMRX 150308 AAB
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Morristown TN
1008 PM EST Sun Jan 14 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 944 PM EST Sun Jan 14 2024

A bit late on the evening update here, but wanted to have a little bit to see some early time steps of the 00z guidance and see the radar trends this evening as snow began to make it into our CWA.

Main changes to the forecast were to update the PoP grids to
reflect current radar trends and pretty strong onset of snowfall
pushing into our area over the next 4-6 hours. Have seen several reports from Knoxville and points west that show snowfall accumulating on surfaces already. Albeit light, the fact that it`s already accumulating certainly lends confidence to the increase in
snowfall totals with the afternoon forecast package earlier today.
Current NBM hourly PoPs show this initial wave of precip moving out around 09z, with a distinct lull thereafter through about 13-14z before the main show moves in after daybreak. This seems very reasonable given the latest CAM guidance, but do not want to try and time a 3-4hr lull in precipitation given that it won`t have a significant impact on expected storm total amounts.

Another notable change was to include some sleet and freezing rain precip types down in the Marion county area. NAM forecast
soundings for Huntsville this evening did indeed show a weak warm
nose through much of the overnight hours. Conceptually this would
extend further ENE into our CWA in the warm SWLY flow around
850mb in that region. We`ve had a report of a light glazing in
parts of eastern Marion county which confirms this thinking. Not
expecting this to last as the column will continue to cool and
precip rates increase. But it is in line with the uncertainty in
ptypes, and storm total accumulations for the southern valley and
far southeast Tennessee.

Lastly, WPC has upped the snowfall amounts for the event in the I-40 corridor and points north. Didn`t want to make wholesale changes to the forecast for the evening update, but this trend doesn`t seem unreasonable given what`s already occurring this
evening. And it is worth noting that for the last few days, NBM
and HREF probabilistic guidance has been showing some healthy
probability of seeing storm total snowfall amounts easily
exceeding 8" across portions of the forecast area. Will let the
overnight shift make any substantive changes that are necessary since they will have the full suite of the latest NBM
probabilistic guidance as well as the 00z models at their

giphy.gif

 

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National Weather Service Nashville TN
812 PM CST Sun Jan 14 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 755 PM CST Sun Jan 14 2024

It`s snowing!!! All of our observation sites are reporting snow
this hour with the heaviest falling along and south of I-40. We`ve
already received a report of 0.5" of snow in Bellevue. Looking at
the latest run of the HRRR tonight, boy did it come in hot. It
paints a narrow band of higher totals ranging from 6-8 inches from
Wayne County all the way through to our furthest NE counties on
the Plateau, including Nashville. This solution would mean this
event overachieves a little further north than originally
forecasted and it pumps out more snow in any heavier bands that
move through. This will be something to watch as the night
progresses. There were talks of bumping up QPF along our northern
border to match up with this latest run of the HRRR, but for now,
we`re going to hold off on that to see what the next round of
models show since this is only 1 run. Our sounding tonight shows a
textbook snow event; big, healthy layer of moisture right in the
snow growth region with all layers below 0 degrees Celsius. As for
temperatures, they have tanked. Most everyone is sitting right
around 20 degrees and dropping. We will be back with a full
forecast update in the next several hours. In the meantime, stay
safe, stay warm, and enjoy the snow!
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2 minutes ago, Uncle Nasty said:

I can confirm 36° with light sleet and a few flurries. I live in Ooltewah just outside Chattanooga on 75N 15 miles from Cleveland. ac30c71f85cdf90300c1666ad22d3108.jpg866cf678c6b24d1f4c4abe17ee9d3704.jpg

Sent from my SM-S916U using Tapatalk
 

I'm south of you and I am all snow, but it's light. Not sure what's going on there. Maybe some colder air trapped on this side of the ridges.

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