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January 15th-17th 2024 Arctic Blast/Snow Event


John1122
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No I think you're OK. 
In fact that forecast is so nutty that I should feel better down here too.

Cynicism aside, this snow event should work out. Pattern recognition is that the reinforcing Arctic front will anchor the cold. Isentropic lift with mid-level front is near ideal. NAM has its strengths with robust waves, but this isn't that. I may eat my words, but I think everything will work out. 

PS the Paul Barys post shows up now. Yeah that is about what I'm thinking. Time to relax for a bit. I'll be back later. 

Someone somewhere at some point will have temp issues but for the life of me I can’t imagine it being on the west side of the apps. I thought it was possible someone might have a mixing issue at the onset but after we meet the correct temp profile for snow, I can’t imagine it getting disrupted during the event. Maybe in Georgia but not above the State line.


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KCHA Dew is 28. It should fall as the reinforcing front settles in over the Plateau. CAA is fighting downslope right now too, see the dry bulb 44. Both should improve at dark and as the cold air settles in over the Plateau.

That said, this is Chattanooga. We have suffered many instances when what looked like a good wet bulb setup failed. We'll find out a lot this evening when precip starts falling enough to impact the low-level profiles. 

Rather than going neurotic in Chatty, I'm gonna watch this football game for a while. At least until half-time. Unless I check at the next commercial, lol!

What did Paul say? Is it gonna piss me off or make me happy?
If my weather station is accurate, our dewpoint is a little higher. I'm in Ooltewah near 75 and Hunter. I'm hoping for a miracle that we don't get screwed with a stalled front and a cold rain/mix. 83b2bd797ca445600160432093cd76a8.jpgad34decb5087c7c73c33d7a3a8efa26b.jpg

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NAM maybe? Looks north like the NAM or they aren’t buying the larger precip shield


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Yeah……agree with you on the NAM possibility. I’ll give them credit, they are sticking with it and gonna ride that forecast till the very end.


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