PowellVolz Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Sitting at 42 in Red Bank. Looks like some precip is about to move in to Hamilton Co. Hoping we can get some cooler air quicker!! .Your dew point matters as much as the temp right now. What’s your DP?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 I’ve got a friend in Cleveland Tn that I’m helping out. I literally told him he could be 5 miles to the good or bad. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Jax has a great map. I had this post on deck as he posted. Apologies for the repeat. Here is the comparison to the full run at 15z. Most short run modeling will release a longer run every six hours. So, one trend we are noticing is model totals going up and the precip shield expanding northward. We are probably at the point were 18z is the last run which will have full maps of the event. I am also attaching the set-up so that we can look back for similar looks in the future. Looks like we managed a storm setup w/ a high in the Aleutians but a -EPO and strongly negative AO and NAO. Trough/storm is easy of Hawaii. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Utvols235 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Your dew point matters as much as the temp right now. What’s your DP?.App says 25. No clue how reliable it is. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tucker1027 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 The retired Paul Barys chimes in… he has always pretty good at nailing these things. . 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 KCHA Dew is 28. It should fall as the reinforcing front settles in over the Plateau. CAA is fighting downslope right now too, see the dry bulb 44. Both should improve at dark and as the cold air settles in over the Plateau. That said, this is Chattanooga. We have suffered many instances when what looked like a good wet bulb setup failed. We'll find out a lot this evening when precip starts falling enough to impact the low-level profiles. Rather than going neurotic in Chatty, I'm gonna watch this football game for a while. At least until half-time. Unless I check at the next commercial, lol! What did Paul say? Is it gonna piss me off or make me happy? 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 App says 25. No clue how reliable it is.Get this app. Search your area and pick out a few locations to your north, south, east and west. That’s the best way to keep up with live data. https://apps.apple.com/app/id713705929. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 10 minutes ago, nrgjeff said: Chattanooga is going neurotic which is understandable. We suffer severe snow choke trauma. High-res models refuse to drop the front like the Globals. Could be initialization. KCHA was 45 at 18Z. Dew of upper 20s cuts it close on the wet-bulb. I think what's happening is the usual daytime front (reinforcing shot) CAA struggles to overcome downslope off Plateau. Chatty just needs the cold air to settle in tonight despite clouds. I believe it was Feb 2015 when a lovely isentropic setup came in from Alabama. It over-achieved. IIRC 2014 was a bowling ball. 2020 definitely was a bowling ball - more like a quidditch ball. The last cold air in place for KCHA was 2015. So, Chattanooga will either return to glory or choke on our tears.Rapid Refresh F-bomb Sh-curse Are you sending us eastern valley residents a subtle message w/ lots of green east of the Plateau on that thumbnail? LOL. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chattownsnow Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Beginning of precip will provide much needed information in Chattanooga. See were our wet bulb and dry bulb go. I'm pouring a drink. Will we toast in happiness or rage drink?Do you think precip will be an issue at all down near the border counties? . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shocker0 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 The "Rufus" model moves the heaviest snow well up into Kentucky at least Kuchera ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Crossville…. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shocker0 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 2 minutes ago, PowellVolz said: Crossville… . 27 here 10 miles NW of town 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 3 minutes ago, Shocker0 said: The "Rufus" model moves the heaviest snow well up into Kentucky at least Kuchera ratios. Believe that is more the first wave isnt it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Knoxtron Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Appears the cold is making it over waldens ridge/plateau now. Dew points dropping quick 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shocker0 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Just now, jaxjagman said: Believe that is more the first wave isnt it? It goes out to 54 hours. It shows a lot of QPF in ETN but maybe mixing problems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsty2001 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 5 minutes ago, Shocker0 said: The "Rufus" model moves the heaviest snow well up into Kentucky at least Kuchera ratios. I just don't see it 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chattownsnow Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Currently in Chattanooga . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Chattanooga is going neurotic which is understandable. We suffer severe snow choke trauma. High-res models refuse to drop the front like the Globals. Could be initialization. KCHA was 45 at 18Z. Dew of upper 20s cuts it close on the wet-bulb. I think what's happening is the usual daytime front (reinforcing shot) CAA struggles to overcome downslope off Plateau. Chatty just needs the cold air to settle in tonight despite clouds. I believe it was Feb 2015 when a lovely isentropic setup came in from Alabama. It over-achieved. IIRC 2014 was a bowling ball. 2020 definitely was a bowling ball - more like a quidditch ball. The last cold air in place for KCHA was 2015. So, Chattanooga will either return to glory or choke on our tears.Rapid Refresh F-bomb Sh-curseYes 2015 was the similar event I was waxing poetic about early in the day that way over performed. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Currently 22 degrees with a windchill of 11. Light snow falling. Local met Joey Sulipeck in Memphis seems to like the HRRR 3KM forecast 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Currently 22 degrees with a windchill of 11. Light snow falling. Local met Joey Sulipeck in Memphis seems to like the HRRR 3KM forecast Good luck Bro. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tucker1027 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 . 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Northern Meigs County in the valley my weather station showing the CAA is inbound. Dewpoint falling super fast and temps are falling as well but slower. So appears things are moving as they should at least for here and upstream of Knoxville. Generally what happens here in my neck of the woods is what is coming for West Knox in these setups. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Buddy in Franklin south of Nashville has flurries now. . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsty2001 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Wondering if the artic front is making a move, temp has dropped another 2 degrees here 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Wondering if the artic front is making a move, temp has dropped another 2 degrees here You in Rhea County correct? If so it's absolutely past you, I'm in Meigs and it's already passed me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jed33 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Have dropped off steadily here myself about 4 degrees in the last hour or so. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tucker1027 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 21 minutes ago, PowellVolz said: . I may have to order me a pair of those sweet pink loafers! 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 No I think you're OK. 29 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: Are you sending us eastern valley residents a subtle message w/ lots of green east of the Plateau on that thumbnail? LOL. In fact that forecast is so nutty that I should feel better down here too. Cynicism aside, this snow event should work out. Pattern recognition is that the reinforcing Arctic front will anchor the cold. Isentropic lift with mid-level front is near ideal. NAM has its strengths with robust waves, but this isn't that. I may eat my words, but I think everything will work out. PS the Paul Barys post shows up now. Yeah that is about what I'm thinking locally. Time to relax for a bit. I'll be back later. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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