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January 15th-17th 2024 Arctic Blast/Snow Event


John1122
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Jax has a great map.  I had this post on deck as he posted.  Apologies for the repeat.  Here is the comparison to the full run at 15z.  Most short run modeling will release a longer run every six hours.  So, one trend we are noticing is model totals going up and the precip shield expanding northward.  We are probably at the point were 18z is the last run which will have full maps of the event.  I am also attaching the set-up so that we can look back for similar looks in the future.  Looks like we managed a storm setup w/ a high in the Aleutians but a -EPO and strongly negative AO and NAO.  Trough/storm is easy of Hawaii.

Screen_Shot_2024-01-14_at_5.14.10_PM.pngScreen_Shot_2024-01-14_at_5.13.26_PM.png

Screen_Shot_2024-01-14_at_4.39.28_PM.png

 

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KCHA Dew is 28. It should fall as the reinforcing front settles in over the Plateau. CAA is fighting downslope right now too, see the dry bulb 44. Both should improve at dark and as the cold air settles in over the Plateau.

That said, this is Chattanooga. We have suffered many instances when what looked like a good wet bulb setup failed. We'll find out a lot this evening when precip starts falling enough to impact the low-level profiles. 

Rather than going neurotic in Chatty, I'm gonna watch this football game for a while. At least until half-time. Unless I check at the next commercial, lol!

What did Paul say? Is it gonna piss me off or make me happy?

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10 minutes ago, nrgjeff said:

Chattanooga is going neurotic which is understandable. We suffer severe snow choke trauma. 

High-res models refuse to drop the front like the Globals. Could be initialization. KCHA was 45 at 18Z. Dew of upper 20s cuts it close on the wet-bulb. I think what's happening is the usual daytime front (reinforcing shot) CAA struggles to overcome downslope off Plateau. Chatty just needs the cold air to settle in tonight despite clouds. 

I believe it was Feb 2015 when a lovely isentropic setup came in from Alabama. It over-achieved. IIRC 2014 was a bowling ball. 2020 definitely was a bowling ball - more like a quidditch ball. The last cold air in place for KCHA was 2015.

So, Chattanooga will either return to glory or choke on our tears.
Rapid Refresh F-bomb Sh-curse


image.png.f6d48bb07b670d901a8923b84d601da9.png

Are you sending us eastern valley residents a subtle message w/ lots of green east of the Plateau on that thumbnail?  LOL.

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Chattanooga is going neurotic which is understandable. We suffer severe snow choke trauma. 

High-res models refuse to drop the front like the Globals. Could be initialization. KCHA was 45 at 18Z. Dew of upper 20s cuts it close on the wet-bulb. I think what's happening is the usual daytime front (reinforcing shot) CAA struggles to overcome downslope off Plateau. Chatty just needs the cold air to settle in tonight despite clouds. 

I believe it was Feb 2015 when a lovely isentropic setup came in from Alabama. It over-achieved. IIRC 2014 was a bowling ball. 2020 definitely was a bowling ball - more like a quidditch ball. The last cold air in place for KCHA was 2015.

So, Chattanooga will either return to glory or choke on our tears.
Rapid Refresh F-bomb Sh-curse

image.png.f6d48bb07b670d901a8923b84d601da9.png
Yes 2015 was the similar event I was waxing poetic about early in the day that way over performed.
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Northern Meigs County in the valley my weather station showing the CAA is inbound. Dewpoint falling super fast and temps are falling as well but slower. So appears things are moving as they should at least for here and upstream of Knoxville. Generally what happens here in my neck of the woods is what is coming for West Knox in these setups.52744a89e3c0dd28b259385fc99f1655.jpg





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No I think you're OK. 

29 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Are you sending us eastern valley residents a subtle message w/ lots of green east of the Plateau on that thumbnail?  LOL.

In fact that forecast is so nutty that I should feel better down here too.

Cynicism aside, this snow event should work out. Pattern recognition is that the reinforcing Arctic front will anchor the cold. Isentropic lift with mid-level front is near ideal. NAM has its strengths with robust waves, but this isn't that. I may eat my words, but I think everything will work out. 

PS the Paul Barys post shows up now. Yeah that is about what I'm thinking locally. Time to relax for a bit. I'll be back later. 

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