Carvers Gap Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 The 18z GFS manages to keep Chattanooga on the books. Very, very slight NW jog but massive expansion of precip shield and amounts increased decently. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 5 minutes ago, Olhausen said: You think the globals are going to be way off with this one? Short range models have been showing way higher totals to the north pretty much every run since this system got within their range. Everyone has their choice but i think the mesoscales work better in this time frame,i dont even look at the globals no more outside 24hrs but everything is guidance to a certain extent https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=17&parm=pmsl&underlay=1&source=1# 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 14 minutes ago, jaxjagman said: getting close Reel it in neighbor! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reb Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Getting kind of nervous here in Seymour. Don’t need any more shifts NW. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 18z GFS looks like the 18z hrr to me up to 39 hrsSent from my SM-S916U1 using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Moderate sleet under these returns in North MS 30 minutes south of Memphis.. Very little snow. Looks like all the snow is along and north of I-40. Sleet showers to the south.I haven’t kept up with what should be going on in that area. According to the mods, should it be snowing there?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 18z GFS comparison run to 12z for trends...new is on the left. 4 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 The 18z GFS manages to keep Chattanooga on the books. Very, very slight NW jog but massive expansion of precip shield and amounts increased decently. Because I’m not familiar with overrunning setups, is rate driven dynamic cooling in play for our southern valley friends?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bill in MS Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 3 minutes ago, PowellVolz said: I haven’t kept up with what should be going on in that area. According to the mods, should it be snowing there? . Yes. And these sleet showers seem almost convective. They are much bigger pellets now and I can here them pouring on the roof. I hope I don't lose much QPF to sleet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 1 minute ago, PowellVolz said: Because I’m not familiar with overrunning setups, is rate driven dynamic cooling in play for our southern valley friends? . @tnweathernutor @TellicoWxor @John1122 or @BNAwx.......I would think there is very little mechanism to bring WAA northward. Time of day could be an issue if it falls during daylight hours and the front stalls. Dynamic cooling would likely play some part as water evaporates and cools the column. It might be less with this set-up, but not absent. Just a layman's guess..... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bill in MS Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 8 minutes ago, PowellVolz said: I haven’t kept up with what should be going on in that area. According to the mods, should it be snowing there? . Reports are from some there is it arrived much earlier & much more precip. One said he believes the ratio to be around 15:1. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 22 minutes ago, Olhausen said: You think the globals are going to be way off with this one? Short range models have been showing way higher totals to the north pretty much every run since this system got within their range. Prepare the pancake table my friend and post pics! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsty2001 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Looks like snow approaching Nashville, line goes all the way back to Little Rock. Precipitation looks pretty healthy on radar 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kentucky Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Current Dew Points, Temps & Humidity over Southern Kentucky 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 RAP with a big expansion 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Southhaven south of Memphis. Arlington Tn NE of Memphis. . 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 2 minutes ago, TellicoWx said: RAP with a big expansion Yeah, it does. Chattanooga is in the mix as well. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 2 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: Yeah, it does. Chattanooga is in the mix as well. Phrasing! 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Just now, Stovepipe said: Phrasing! Never been my strong point!!!! LOL. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 5 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: @tnweathernutor @TellicoWxor @John1122 or @BNAwx.......I would think there is very little mechanism to bring WAA northward. Time of day could be an issue if it falls during daylight hours and the front stalls. Dynamic cooling would likely play some part as water evaporates and cools the column. It might be less with this set-up, but not absent. Just a layman's guess..... Looking at HI Res data, not overly concerned about Monroe/McMinn north. However, Polk and Bradley getting a little more concerned, I wouldn't want to be in those areas. HRRR has brought slightly warmer air but NAM extended it...they are kinda meeting in the Middle. The push from the high is just slightly less last few runs, but looks more like normal model wobbling. Which plays huge into those 3 counties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlunderStorm Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 RAP significantly upped totals for 21z across the board. Also kept Chatty in the game. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Yeah, it does. Chattanooga is in the mix as well. 21z rapSent from my SM-S916U1 using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Chattanooga is going neurotic which is understandable. We suffer severe snow choke trauma. High-res models refuse to drop the front like the Globals. Could be initialization. KCHA was 45 at 18Z. Dew of upper 20s cuts it close on the wet-bulb. I think what's happening is the usual daytime front (reinforcing shot) CAA struggles to overcome downslope off Plateau. Chatty just needs the cold air to settle in tonight despite clouds. I believe it was Feb 2015 when a lovely isentropic setup came in from Alabama. It over-achieved. IIRC 2014 was a bowling ball. 2020 definitely was a bowling ball - more like a quidditch ball. The last cold air in place for KCHA was 2015. So, Chattanooga will either return to glory or choke on our tears.Rapid Refresh F-bomb Sh-curse 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 3 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: Yeah, it does. Chattanooga is in the mix as well. That was a good run that time 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 So all models are on board but nam correct?Sent from my SM-S916U1 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Utvols235 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Sitting at 42 in Red Bank. Looks like some precip is about to move in to Hamilton Co. Hoping we can get some cooler air quicker!! . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Beginning of precip will provide much needed information in Chattanooga. See were our wet bulb and dry bulb go. I'm pouring a drink. Will we toast in happiness or rage drink? 5 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 2 minutes ago, BlunderStorm said: RAP significantly upped totals for 21z across the board. Great googly moogly! 2 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 My dew point and temperature are dropping in Loudon finally.Sent from my SM-S916U1 using Tapatalk 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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