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January 15th-17th 2024 Arctic Blast/Snow Event


John1122
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5 minutes ago, Olhausen said:

You think the globals are going to be way off with this one? Short range models have been showing way higher totals to the north pretty much every run since  this system got within their range.

Everyone has their choice but i think the mesoscales work better in this time frame,i dont even look at the globals no more outside 24hrs but everything is guidance to a certain extent

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=17&parm=pmsl&underlay=1&source=1#

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Moderate sleet under these returns in North MS 30 minutes south of Memphis..  Very little snow. Looks like all the snow is along and north of I-40. Sleet showers to the south.

I haven’t kept up with what should be going on in that area. According to the mods, should it be snowing there?


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The 18z GFS manages to keep Chattanooga on the books. Very, very slight NW jog but massive expansion of precip shield and amounts increased decently. 

Because I’m not familiar with overrunning setups, is rate driven dynamic cooling in play for our southern valley friends?


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3 minutes ago, PowellVolz said:


I haven’t kept up with what should be going on in that area. According to the mods, should it be snowing there?


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Yes.  And these sleet showers seem almost convective.  They are much bigger  pellets now and I can here them pouring on the roof.  I hope I don't lose much QPF to sleet.

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1 minute ago, PowellVolz said:


Because I’m not familiar with overrunning setups, is rate driven dynamic cooling in play for our southern valley friends?


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@tnweathernutor @TellicoWxor @John1122 or @BNAwx.......I would think there is very little mechanism to bring WAA northward.  Time of day could be an issue if it falls during daylight hours and the front stalls.  Dynamic cooling would likely play some part as water evaporates and cools the column.  It might be less with this set-up, but not absent.  Just a layman's guess.....

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8 minutes ago, PowellVolz said:


I haven’t kept up with what should be going on in that area. According to the mods, should it be snowing there?


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Reports are from some there is it arrived much earlier & much more precip.  One said he believes the ratio to be around 15:1. 

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22 minutes ago, Olhausen said:

You think the globals are going to be way off with this one? Short range models have been showing way higher totals to the north pretty much every run since  this system got within their range.

Prepare the pancake table my friend and post pics!  :guitar:

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5 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

@tnweathernutor @TellicoWxor @John1122 or @BNAwx.......I would think there is very little mechanism to bring WAA northward.  Time of day could be an issue if it falls during daylight hours and the front stalls.  Dynamic cooling would likely play some part as water evaporates and cools the column.  It might be less with this set-up, but not absent.  Just a layman's guess.....

Looking at HI Res data, not overly concerned about Monroe/McMinn north. However, Polk and Bradley getting a little more concerned, I wouldn't want to be in those areas. HRRR has brought slightly warmer air but NAM extended it...they are kinda meeting in the Middle. The push from the high is just slightly less last few runs, but looks more like normal model wobbling. Which plays huge into those 3 counties.

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Chattanooga is going neurotic which is understandable. We suffer severe snow choke trauma. 

High-res models refuse to drop the front like the Globals. Could be initialization. KCHA was 45 at 18Z. Dew of upper 20s cuts it close on the wet-bulb. I think what's happening is the usual daytime front (reinforcing shot) CAA struggles to overcome downslope off Plateau. Chatty just needs the cold air to settle in tonight despite clouds. 

I believe it was Feb 2015 when a lovely isentropic setup came in from Alabama. It over-achieved. IIRC 2014 was a bowling ball. 2020 definitely was a bowling ball - more like a quidditch ball. The last cold air in place for KCHA was 2015.

So, Chattanooga will either return to glory or choke on our tears.
Rapid Refresh F-bomb Sh-curse


image.png.f6d48bb07b670d901a8923b84d601da9.png

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