John1122 Posted January 14, 2024 Author Share Posted January 14, 2024 5 minutes ago, bearman said: MRX would sure bust with their new totals map if that map verifies. It would snow for another 8 to 12 hours in the East. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jed33 Posted January 14, 2024 Share Posted January 14, 2024 26 minutes ago, John1122 said: The ICON is actually looking like a major winner here if the MRX forecast verifies. It's 18z run is gonna be a big one for most of us again. The Icon has had this solution for days. It’s amazing it’s consistency! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bearman Posted January 14, 2024 Share Posted January 14, 2024 2 minutes ago, John1122 said: It would snow for another 8 to 12 hours in the East. Good to Know. Told you I was dangerous with my limited knowledge. Don’t want anyone to jump off a cliff because of me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 14, 2024 Share Posted January 14, 2024 Kuchera for 18z RGEM (left) and for side-by-side comparison w/ 12z. Slight jog northwest, but pretty massive expansion of precip field which we are seeing across modeling. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 14, 2024 Share Posted January 14, 2024 FWIW my temp is completely stalled at 44 DP 30 for the past 2 hours. Not sure the CF is making much progress. That may lend more credence to the NAM. I'm in a really bad spot for this one though. Almost as far SE as you can get in Hamilton county.I could be wrong but I don’t think surface temps are the issue anywhere. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted January 14, 2024 Share Posted January 14, 2024 7 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: Awesome, man! How much are the predicting for your area, AMZ? Im cautiously optimistic, Im guessing 2-4 imby but The Winter storm warning is calling for 3-5’ so we will see. It would be awesome if we could get to or above that 5 inch mark but you know how hard that is to accomplish on this end of the state 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 14, 2024 Share Posted January 14, 2024 We were 7 degrees over projected highs at TRI today.I was a couple under. Stuck at 38-39. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted January 14, 2024 Share Posted January 14, 2024 1 minute ago, Carvers Gap said: Kuchera for 18z RGEM (left) and for side-by-side comparison w/ 12z. Slight jog northwest, but pretty massive expansion of precip field which we are seeing across modeling. I approve of this new idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 14, 2024 Share Posted January 14, 2024 3 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: The RGEM really beefed up amounts. The 18z RGEM brings the entry point in the forum area slightly north of 12z. It still flattens the system as it heads eastward. That slight changes increases amounts over middle TN. Last minute northwest trends are not uncommon. We actually "stole" a system many years ago from North Carolina on a 48 hour trend at the last minute. If the cold in middle TN is stronger than expected, there will be a likely limit as to how far it can trend northward. More than anything we are seeing an expansion of the northern precip shield vs a major movement of the snow demarcation line to the south. About a one county jog northwestward for the southern extent of snow. Also to account, there is a certain amount of ebb and flow noise in modeling. It makes sense and I’ve mentioned it before, but when any storm involves overrunning, precip normally breaks out faster, is quicker, and the precip shield is often further north than modeled. I know you know this, just trying to piggy back off your comment to add to the discussion. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 14, 2024 Share Posted January 14, 2024 1 minute ago, PowellVolz said: I could be wrong but I don’t think surface temps are the issue anywhere. . 18z RGEM...surface temps are an issue for Chattanooga as is decreased overall precip. Sleet and ZR mixed w/ rain and snow. Not sure I buy that, but the WxBell algorithm has it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted January 14, 2024 Share Posted January 14, 2024 I have been in the 40s all day in loudon when will the cold air begin moving in the valley.Sent from my SM-S916U1 using TapatalkThe cold air seems to be stuck on the plateau. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 14, 2024 Share Posted January 14, 2024 3 minutes ago, AMZ8990 said: Im cautiously optimistic, Im guessing 2-4 imby but The Winter storm warning is calling for 3-5’ so we will see. It would be awesome if we could get to or above that 5 inch mark but you know how hard that is to accomplish on this end of the state Good deal. After so many years of Memphis having to sit and watch others get snow, you all are on the books with yet another one! It has been a good 4 years for you all generally. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 14, 2024 Share Posted January 14, 2024 I approve of this new idea. I wouldn’t call it new. It was somewhat expected if you go by the mods under est the northern precip field . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsty2001 Posted January 14, 2024 Share Posted January 14, 2024 Temp has dropped 2 degrees here in last hour. We doing a OBS thread or keeping it all here? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 14, 2024 Share Posted January 14, 2024 18z RGEM...surface temps are an issue for Chattanooga as is decreased overall precip. Sleet and ZR mixed w/ rain and snow. Not sure I buy that, but the WxBell algorithm has it.My bad… I was thinking the concern was around 700 . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 14, 2024 Share Posted January 14, 2024 Just now, PowellVolz said: I wouldn’t call it new. It was somewhat expected if you go by the mods under est the northern precip field . Yep. Very true. Also, a northwest jog has been discussed for several days. It is one reason I try not to be too emotional about modeling. The wx is gonna do what it is gonna do...and not a thing I can do about it but observe, predict, and revise...and enjoy the process. This is a fun hobby for the most part. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted January 14, 2024 Share Posted January 14, 2024 2 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: Good deal. After so many years of Memphis having to sit and watch others get snow, you all are on the books with yet another one! It has been a good 4 years for you all generally. It really has man, I’m definitely thankful for it. We’ve had some pretty memorable winter weather the past 5-6 years. One of those systems kept snow on the ground for over a week which is unheard of in these parts. Last year wasn’t great but it was like that for everyone. How about how the models nailed this system/ cold from all the way back around new years. It’s crazy to think how long we’ve been tracking this system. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 14, 2024 Share Posted January 14, 2024 Just now, PowellVolz said: My bad… I was thinking the concern was around 700 . Some of it is an algorithm issue. Some of it is general precip shield shifted about a county northwest for that model. I don't know what trends on the ground are, so it is going to be super important for folks west of us to post their observations. For now, I am going to ride w/ the NBM - I think. But the NBM will be late to the table if this trends sharply. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 14, 2024 Share Posted January 14, 2024 Yep. Very true. Also, a northwest jog has been discussed for several days. It is one reason I try not to be too emotional about modeling. The wx is gonna do what it is gonna do...and not a thing I can do about it but observe, predict, and revise...and enjoy the process. This is a fun hobby for the most part. And you all do a fantastic job, all of you. I’m newer to winter weather even though we did this on VQ for a long time. My interest has always been severe weather, thunderstorms. . 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 14, 2024 Share Posted January 14, 2024 getting close 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted January 14, 2024 Share Posted January 14, 2024 8 minutes ago, Mrwolf1972 said: I have been in the 40s all day in loudon when will the cold air begin moving in the valley. Sent from my SM-S916U1 using Tapatalk The cold air seems to be stuck on the plateau. The artic boundary has moved across 75 here in Monroe Co, almost to 411 now. Easiest way to find it is using DP not air temp. When it passes DP begins crashing. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Olhausen Posted January 14, 2024 Share Posted January 14, 2024 37 minutes ago, jaxjagman said: that should still be pretty disturbing what the RAP is showing last run You think the globals are going to be way off with this one? Short range models have been showing way higher totals to the north pretty much every run since this system got within their range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted January 14, 2024 Share Posted January 14, 2024 Very steady NW trend continuing on HRRR at 20z. Chattanooga is now above 32 by 9am tmrw and border counties of NE TN. this is just... bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jed33 Posted January 14, 2024 Share Posted January 14, 2024 Look at how the 18z GFS is playing catch up, even since 6z this morning. If you toggle between the runs it’s amazing how much it has had to adjust. It’s coming out right now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted January 14, 2024 Share Posted January 14, 2024 18z. GFS upped totalsSent from my SM-S916U1 using Tapatalk 2 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 14, 2024 Share Posted January 14, 2024 7 minutes ago, PowellVolz said: And you all do a fantastic job, all of you. I’m newer to winter weather even though we did this on VQ for a long time. My interest has always been severe weather, thunderstorms. . You know your stuff. It is great to have the board grow. When we started, there were just a handful of us. Now, it is a pretty formidable gathering of people teaching/learning/enjoying a great hobby. It took a bit longer than we expected to grow the place, but it is rocking now. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted January 14, 2024 Share Posted January 14, 2024 8 minutes ago, jaxjagman said: getting close Good luck brotha. Hope you and the family are doing well! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codgator Posted January 14, 2024 Share Posted January 14, 2024 Just now, Mrwolf1972 said: 18z. GFS upped totals Sent from my SM-S916U1 using Tapatalk I like where the banding is setting up 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bill in MS Posted January 14, 2024 Share Posted January 14, 2024 Moderate sleet under these returns in North MS 30 minutes south of Memphis.. Very little snow. Looks like all the snow is along and north of I-40. Sleet showers to the south. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted January 14, 2024 Share Posted January 14, 2024 16 minutes ago, PowellVolz said: I wouldn’t call it new. It was somewhat expected if you go by the mods under est the northern precip field . I should have said latest run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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