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January 15th-17th 2024 Arctic Blast/Snow Event


John1122
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26 minutes ago, John1122 said:

The ICON is actually looking like a major winner here if the MRX forecast verifies. It's 18z run is gonna be a big one for most of us again.

The Icon has had this solution for days. It’s amazing it’s consistency!

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FWIW my temp is completely stalled at 44 DP 30 for the past 2 hours. Not sure the CF is making much progress. That may lend more credence to the NAM. I'm in a really bad spot for this one though. Almost as far SE as you can get in Hamilton county.

I could be wrong but I don’t think surface temps are the issue anywhere.


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7 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Awesome, man!  How much are the predicting for your area, AMZ?

Im cautiously optimistic, Im guessing 2-4 imby but The Winter storm warning is calling  for  3-5’ so we will see.  It would be awesome if we could get to or above that 5 inch mark but you know how hard that is to accomplish on this end of the state

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1 minute ago, Carvers Gap said:

Kuchera for 18z RGEM (left) and for side-by-side comparison w/ 12z.  Slight jog northwest, but pretty massive expansion of precip field which we are seeing across modeling.  

Screen_Shot_2024-01-14_at_4.22.06_PM.png

 

I approve of this new idea. 

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3 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

The RGEM really beefed up amounts.  The 18z RGEM brings the entry point in the forum area slightly north of 12z.  It still flattens the system as it heads eastward.  That slight changes increases amounts over middle TN.  Last minute northwest trends are not uncommon.  We actually "stole" a system many years ago from North Carolina on a 48 hour trend at the last minute.  If the cold in middle TN is stronger than expected, there will be a likely limit as to how far it can trend northward.  More than anything we are seeing an expansion of the northern precip shield vs a major movement of the snow demarcation line to the south.  About a one county jog northwestward for the southern extent of snow.  Also to account, there is a certain amount of ebb and flow noise in modeling.  

It makes sense and I’ve mentioned it before, but when any storm involves overrunning, precip normally breaks out faster, is quicker, and the precip shield is often further north than modeled.  I know you know this, just trying to piggy back off your comment to add to the discussion.

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1 minute ago, PowellVolz said:


I could be wrong but I don’t think surface temps are the issue anywhere.


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18z RGEM...surface temps are an issue for Chattanooga as is decreased overall precip.  Sleet and ZR mixed w/ rain and snow.  Not sure I buy that, but the WxBell algorithm has it.

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3 minutes ago, AMZ8990 said:

Im cautiously optimistic, Im guessing 2-4 imby but The Winter storm warning is calling  for  3-5’ so we will see.  It would be awesome if we could get to or above that 5 inch mark but you know how hard that is to accomplish on this end of the state

Good deal.  After so many years of Memphis having to sit and watch others get snow, you all are on the books with yet another one! It has been a good 4 years for you all generally.

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18z RGEM...surface temps are an issue for Chattanooga as is decreased overall precip.  Sleet and ZR mixed w/ rain and snow.  Not sure I buy that, but the WxBell algorithm has it.

My bad… I was thinking the concern was around 700


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Just now, PowellVolz said:


I wouldn’t call it new. It was somewhat expected if you go by the mods under est the northern precip field


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Yep.  Very true.  Also, a northwest jog has been discussed for several days.  It is one reason I try not to be too emotional about modeling.  The wx is gonna do what it is gonna do...and not a thing I can do about it but observe, predict, and revise...and enjoy the process.   This is a fun hobby for the most part. 

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2 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Good deal.  After so many years of Memphis having to sit and watch others get snow, you all are on the books with yet another one! It has been a good 4 years for you all generally.

 It really has man, I’m definitely thankful for it.  We’ve had some pretty memorable winter weather the past 5-6 years.  One of those systems kept snow on the ground for over a week which is unheard of in these parts. Last year wasn’t great but it was like that for everyone.  How about how the models nailed this system/ cold from all the way back around new years.  It’s crazy to think how long we’ve been tracking this system.

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Just now, PowellVolz said:


My bad… I was thinking the concern was around 700


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Some of it is an algorithm issue.  Some of it is general precip shield shifted about a county northwest for that model.  I don't know what trends on the ground are, so it is going to be super important for folks west of us to post their observations.  For now, I am going to ride w/ the NBM - I think.  But the NBM will be late to the table if this trends sharply.

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Yep.  Very true.  Also, a northwest jog has been discussed for several days.  It is one reason I try not to be too emotional about modeling.  The wx is gonna do what it is gonna do...and not a thing I can do about it but observe, predict, and revise...and enjoy the process.   This is a fun hobby for the most part. 

And you all do a fantastic job, all of you. I’m newer to winter weather even though we did this on VQ for a long time. My interest has always been severe weather, thunderstorms.


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8 minutes ago, Mrwolf1972 said:

I have been in the 40s all day in loudon when will the cold air begin moving in the valley.

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The cold air seems to be stuck on the plateau.

The artic boundary has moved across 75 here in Monroe Co, almost to 411 now. Easiest way to find it is using DP not air temp. When it passes DP begins crashing.

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37 minutes ago, jaxjagman said:

that should still be pretty disturbing what the RAP is showing last run

Models-RAP-—-Pivotal-Weather.png

You think the globals are going to be way off with this one? Short range models have been showing way higher totals to the north pretty much every run since  this system got within their range.

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7 minutes ago, PowellVolz said:


And you all do a fantastic job, all of you. I’m newer to winter weather even though we did this on VQ for a long time. My interest has always been severe weather, thunderstorms.


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You know your stuff.  It is great to have the board grow.  When we started, there were just a handful of us.  Now, it is a pretty formidable gathering of people teaching/learning/enjoying a great hobby.  It took a bit longer than we expected to grow the place, but it is rocking now.  

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