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January 15th-17th 2024 Arctic Blast/Snow Event


John1122
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2 minutes ago, jaxjagman said:

I still dunno,we usually have warn air in place here and start as more of a mix.Its really rare in our parts to already have cold air in place during a winter storm,so theres not gonna be much data incorporated to me than other skill

Actually, I hadn't looked at the RAP.  Its recent run looks like the RGEM from 12z w/ slightly more precip on the northern edge.  

Are you saying that models may be underestimating totals since cold air is already in place?  Just trying to make sure I understand.  Thanks, man.

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18 minutes ago, John1122 said:

JY03PyJ.png

 

At first glance, that looks too high for most of TRI.  They must be banking on good rates and the bigger model runs.  There is certainly some model support for that.  The NBM is around 3-5" of snow here.   I admire their courage.  Without the NAM on board, I am still holding my cards on amounts.   I honestly don't know for TRI.

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FWIW my temp is completely stalled at 44 DP 30 for the past 2 hours. Not sure the CF is making much progress. That may lend more credence to the NAM. I'm in a really bad spot for this one though. Almost as far SE as you can get in Hamilton county.

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4 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Actually, I hadn't looked at the RAP.  Its recent run looks like the RGEM from 12z w/ slightly more precip on the northern edge.  

Are you saying that models may be underestimating totals since cold air is already in place?  Just trying to make sure I understand.  Thanks, man.

I imagine all the models sitting in a basement somewhere trying to figure out why there's not a huge warm nose screaming up either side of the Plateau. This all cold stuff confuses them. It's from the 1970s.

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Just now, dwagner88 said:

FWIW my temp is completely stalled at 44 DP 30 for the past 2 hours. Not sure the CF is making much progress. That may lend more credence to the NAM. I'm in a really bad spot for this one though. Almost as far SE as you can get in Hamilton county.

It should get there too, the cold I mean. I've only fallen a degree and a half off my high for the day. It's a slow burn.

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1 minute ago, John1122 said:

I imagine all the models sitting in a basement somewhere trying to figure out why there's not a huge warm nose screaming up either side of the Plateau. This all cold stuff confuses them. It's from the 1970s.

We were 7 degrees over projected highs at TRI today.

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So, my pessimism aside, if modeling bumps up totals at 18z, it likely means they are playing catch-up.  If you like lots of snow, that is a good thing...wherever this sets up.  The best winter storms rarely stop increasing totals, even during the last run prior to the event.   The 18z ICON is a good trend it appears.  Also, of note, El Nino systems tend to overperform at times.  

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FWIW my temp is completely stalled at 44 DP 30 for the past 2 hours. Not sure the CF is making much progress. That may lend more credence to the NAM. I'm in a really bad spot for this one though. Almost as far SE as you can get in Hamilton county.

I think we are fine… luckily we have sometime before the precip arrives.


.
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1 minute ago, Matthew70 said:

Murfreesboro is sitting at 30 degrees.  A few degrees warmer than forecast. 

We are ok,think we should start seeing some snow maybe in a hr.radar seems to be showing this right now for here,your temps shouldnt rise any 

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Appreciate everyone’s input & analysis & teaching in this forum. Also the real time observations.  It’s awesome to be here & celebrate with every one (hopefully) getting at least 2” of snow.  Been a long time for the whole state.  

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The RGEM really beefed up amounts.  The 18z RGEM brings the entry point in the forum area slightly north of 12z.  It still flattens the system as it heads eastward.  That slight changes increases amounts over middle TN.  Last minute northwest trends are not uncommon.  We actually "stole" a system many years ago from North Carolina on a 48 hour trend at the last minute.  If the cold in middle TN is stronger than expected, there will be a likely limit as to how far it can trend northward.  More than anything we are seeing an expansion of the northern precip shield vs a major movement of the snow demarcation line to the south.  About a one county jog northwestward for the southern extent of snow.  Also to account, there is a certain amount of ebb and flow noise in modeling.  

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