jaxjagman Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Just now, PowellVolz said: . Wow,i was wondering if it was snowing didnt get a chance to look at OBS now i know 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 2 minutes ago, jaxjagman said: I still dunno,we usually have warn air in place here and start as more of a mix.Its really rare in our parts to already have cold air in place during a winter storm,so theres not gonna be much data incorporated to me than other skill Actually, I hadn't looked at the RAP. Its recent run looks like the RGEM from 12z w/ slightly more precip on the northern edge. Are you saying that models may be underestimating totals since cold air is already in place? Just trying to make sure I understand. Thanks, man. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 14 Author Share Posted January 14 The ICON is actually looking like a major winner here if the MRX forecast verifies. It's 18z run is gonna be a big one for most of us again. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 18 minutes ago, John1122 said: At first glance, that looks too high for most of TRI. They must be banking on good rates and the bigger model runs. There is certainly some model support for that. The NBM is around 3-5" of snow here. I admire their courage. Without the NAM on board, I am still holding my cards on amounts. I honestly don't know for TRI. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dwagner88 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 FWIW my temp is completely stalled at 44 DP 30 for the past 2 hours. Not sure the CF is making much progress. That may lend more credence to the NAM. I'm in a really bad spot for this one though. Almost as far SE as you can get in Hamilton county. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 14 Author Share Posted January 14 4 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: Actually, I hadn't looked at the RAP. Its recent run looks like the RGEM from 12z w/ slightly more precip on the northern edge. Are you saying that models may be underestimating totals since cold air is already in place? Just trying to make sure I understand. Thanks, man. I imagine all the models sitting in a basement somewhere trying to figure out why there's not a huge warm nose screaming up either side of the Plateau. This all cold stuff confuses them. It's from the 1970s. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 14 Author Share Posted January 14 Just now, dwagner88 said: FWIW my temp is completely stalled at 44 DP 30 for the past 2 hours. Not sure the CF is making much progress. That may lend more credence to the NAM. I'm in a really bad spot for this one though. Almost as far SE as you can get in Hamilton county. It should get there too, the cold I mean. I've only fallen a degree and a half off my high for the day. It's a slow burn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 1 minute ago, John1122 said: I imagine all the models sitting in a basement somewhere trying to figure out why there's not a huge warm nose screaming up either side of the Plateau. This all cold stuff confuses them. It's from the 1970s. We were 7 degrees over projected highs at TRI today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 14 Author Share Posted January 14 The ICON manages to put the entire state in 2+ inches. It's exceedingly rare for that to happen, if it verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 that should still be pretty disturbing what the RAP is showing last run 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 So, my pessimism aside, if modeling bumps up totals at 18z, it likely means they are playing catch-up. If you like lots of snow, that is a good thing...wherever this sets up. The best winter storms rarely stop increasing totals, even during the last run prior to the event. The 18z ICON is a good trend it appears. Also, of note, El Nino systems tend to overperform at times. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tucker1027 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 FWIW my temp is completely stalled at 44 DP 30 for the past 2 hours. Not sure the CF is making much progress. That may lend more credence to the NAM. I'm in a really bad spot for this one though. Almost as far SE as you can get in Hamilton county.I think we are fine… luckily we have sometime before the precip arrives. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 14 Author Share Posted January 14 2 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: We were 7 degrees over projected highs at TRI today. I was a couple of degrees higher than forecast myself. The cold is filtering in though, and unfortunately so are the very low dps. My DP has already fallen to 10, it was 24 earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 2 minutes ago, jaxjagman said: that should still be pretty disturbing what the RAP is showing last run Murfreesboro is sitting at 30 degrees. A few degrees warmer than forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Light snow now falling in hardeman county 60 miles east of Memphis 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 The 20z RAP at 21h looks nearly identical to the 18z RGEM at the equivalent time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 14 Author Share Posted January 14 My point forecast, which I assume is generated off the HRRR for early periods, does say I'll have freezing rain between 1 and 3 am Monday night. That would be very very odd but I'm curious to see if it happens. Then it switches back to snow with a chance of snow until 10am Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 4 minutes ago, AMZ8990 said: Light snow now falling in hardeman county 60 miles east of Memphis Awesome, man! How much are the predicting for your area, AMZ? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 1 minute ago, Matthew70 said: Murfreesboro is sitting at 30 degrees. A few degrees warmer than forecast. We are ok,think we should start seeing some snow maybe in a hr.radar seems to be showing this right now for here,your temps shouldnt rise any 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Lawrenceburg now reporting snow. From a friend who lives there. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 18z iconSent from my SM-S916U1 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chattownsnow Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Looks like the 18z RDPS shifted north taking Chattanooga out of the good snows . Don’t like seeing that . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bearman Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 12 minutes ago, jaxjagman said: that should still be pretty disturbing what the RAP is showing last run MRX would sure bust with their new totals map if that map verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Looks like the 18z RDPS shifted north taking Chattanooga out of the good snows . Don’t like seeing that .RdpsSent from my SM-S916U1 using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Appreciate everyone’s input & analysis & teaching in this forum. Also the real time observations. It’s awesome to be here & celebrate with every one (hopefully) getting at least 2” of snow. Been a long time for the whole state. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greyhound Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Get that RAP crap outta here!!!! I can’t handle a bust now that I’ve gone all in!!!!. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 2 minutes ago, bearman said: MRX would sure bust with their new totals map if that map verifies. Pretty sure it’s still snowing in the east when that run ended. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 It just seems weird 95% of the models look the same but 2 both that are sagging south for us not to get a win.Sent from my SM-S916U1 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AFranklin88 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 I don’t think that RAP view is the full storm total unless I’m missing something . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 The RGEM really beefed up amounts. The 18z RGEM brings the entry point in the forum area slightly north of 12z. It still flattens the system as it heads eastward. That slight changes increases amounts over middle TN. Last minute northwest trends are not uncommon. We actually "stole" a system many years ago from North Carolina on a 48 hour trend at the last minute. If the cold in middle TN is stronger than expected, there will be a likely limit as to how far it can trend northward. More than anything we are seeing an expansion of the northern precip shield vs a major movement of the snow demarcation line to the south. About a one county jog northwestward for the southern extent of snow. Also to account, there is a certain amount of ebb and flow noise in modeling. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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