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January 15th-17th 2024 Arctic Blast/Snow Event


John1122
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I'm fairly sure he's going to be wrong but we'll see. OHX just said 4-7 with 8+ possible over his 1-3 area.

Completely agree but I do believe it’s very reasonable for anyone north of 40 in the valley to push 8”. I’m in a location where I get 6-8” from the NAM and 8+ from all the other mods. I might end up in a good location.


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3 minutes ago, PowellVolz said:


Completely agree but I do believe it’s very reasonable for anyone north of 40 in the valley to push 8”. I’m in a location where I get 6-8” from the NAM and 8+ from all the other mods. I might end up in a good location.


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That is very possible but also based on the latest runs it looks like his 1-3" line and 2-4" should also be in the 3-6+ at the very least. But maybe he will be correct

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The 18z NAM again looks like it is experiencing feedback issues.  And that is a known bias of that model.  It turns the line of precip well north and much earlier over the eastern valley.  It could score a coup and certainly has before, but big totals(which aren't on other models) are usually indicative of feedback.  We'll see.  I also have seen the NAM overestimate my totals by 3-4x the actual amount in reality.  

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000

FXUS64 KMRX 142035

AFDMRX

 

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Morristown TN

335 PM EST Sun Jan 14 2024

 

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

 

.SHORT TERM...

(This evening through Monday Night)

Issued at 319 PM EST Sun Jan 14 2024

 

Key Messages:

 

1. Increasing confidence in a heavy snowfall, especially Knoxville

and north, exact placement of highest amounts will depend on where

exactly snow band sets up.

 

2. Potential still exists for a mix of precipitation types along the

Georgia border, lending to moderate uncertainty on snowfall totals

in the southernmost counties.

 

3. Precipitation late Monday night into Tuesday morning might switch

to a light freezing drizzle as snow comes to an end.

 

Discussion:

 

Mostly sunny skies across eastern Tennessee currently will give way

to the clouds associated with the incoming snowstorm. Expecting snow

showers to begin moving into the valley tonight, sometime between

00z and 06z for first showers. HRRR is a little quicker than the

HREF mean, but siding on the side of caution given how timing has

gone thus far. It seems likely at this point that snow will stick

as temperatures will be falling below freezing as snow arrives.

Therefore last preparations for snow should be completed this

afternoon and early evening. With the guidance continuing the

trend today to move the start time of snow showers up, elected to

begin the warning at 00z tonight, the winter weather advisory in

North Carolina will remain 06z.

 

Snowfall has increased with this package, now expecting a broad

spectrum of 6 to 8 inches along and north of Interstate 40, with

another maximum along the Cumberland Plateau. This forecast is

slightly under the WPC guidance, and it seems likely that some

locations will accumulate higher amounts. Placement of these

localized higher snowfall amounts is uncertain depending on exact

placement of narrow bands of higher snowfall rates. The other

uncertainty in snow amounts continues to be along the border

counties with Georgia, where a brief mix of sleet seems probable

given the persistence in the high resolution guidance. For

temperatures tomorrow, stuck with persistence with the prior

shift. Some guidance, and the NBM, is warmer with the max

temperature, but it`s hard to reconcile that idea when no strong

advection is in place to power that warmth against the chilling

effect of ongoing snowfall.

 

Snow starts out tonight as generally scattered, and guidance has

indicated a lessening or pause before becoming more steady

stratiform snow with embedded bands during the daytime on Monday.

While the HREF doesn`t suggest any 1"/hr rates, steady snowfall will

lead to higher accumulations as Monday wears on. This translates

to road conditions steadily worsening, especially secondaries and

lesser frequented roads, as the day wears on. Monday night into

early Tuesday might feature light freezing drizzle on the backside

of the snow as moisture in the atmosphere lowers beneath the DGZ

and thus only supercooled water will fall. Ice accumulations with

this is expected to be a glaze at most.

 

&&

 

.LONG TERM...

(Tuesday through next Sunday)

Issued at 319 PM EST Sun Jan 14 2024

 

Key Messages:

 

1. Very cold temperatures in the wake of the snow that will tape off Tuesday

morning. Single digit/ near zero temperatures and subzero wind chills

possible Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.

 

2. Additional winter system possible Thursday night into Friday, but

details still uncertain. Ensembles are in not in the best agreement

with the system, but there is high confidence in cold weather behind

this system lasting through the weekend.

 

Discussion:

 

As drier air will begin to move in late Monday night into Tuesday

morning the main areas of precipitation will begin to exit the area

as the upper level energy shifts northeast. At the end of the

precipitation there is a possibility of some light freezing drizzle

or flurries before tapering off Tuesday morning. Any ice

accumulation should be minor with the snowfall being the main

impact. Very cold air then advects into the area Tuesday. High

temperatures Tuesday with the Arctic airmass high pressure will be

in the 20s with wind chill readings in the teens as winds will be

about 10 mph. With the high pressure area directly overhead Tuesday

night and early Wednesday winds decrease and temperatures will

plummet to single digits areawide. Wind chill temperatures Wednesday

night and early Thursday will be between zero and 10 below.

 

Wednesday night and Thursday the Arctic high pressure will shift

eastward and this allows winds to shift to the south and southwest

Wednesday afternoon and overnight. Temperatures warm about 10

degrees Wednesday night and another 10 degrees Thursday with most

locations in the 30s to around 40. However with anticipated snowfall

by Tuesday temperatures may stay below freezing in some areas.

 

The next weather change will be Thursday into Friday as a low

pressure area develops across the southern plains and with

increasing moisture will bring a fast moving front through the

forecast area Friday. The track of the low is expected to go south

of the region at this time. With the short period of southerly flow

and the uncertainty with warming based on entrenched cold air with

the Monday/Tuesday system expect precipitation amounts to not be

that high. If temperatures are in the mid 30s to around 40 at onset

of the precipitation Thursday afternoon like models are showing

there should be mixed precipitation with rain and snow. The mixed

precipitation should continue into the evening. Then the rain should

change to snow and become all snow by Friday. The amount of warming

and the moisture available will affect snowfall amounts. This is

still uncertain. The precipitation is moving out Friday night.

 

Behind the system Friday there is still a higher confidence of more

cold temperatures with Arctic High pressure building in Friday night

through Sunday. Lows again look to be in the single digits Saturday

and Sunday mornings. Highs once again in the 20s Saturday and then

warming into the 30s Sunday as the large surface high shifts east of

the Appalachians by late in the day.

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9 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

The 18z NAM again looks like it is experiencing feed back issues.  And that is a bias of it.  It turns the line of precip well north and much earlier over the eastern valley.  It could score a coup and certainly has before, but big totals(which aren't on other models) are usually indicative of feedback.  We'll see.  

I dunno,the RAP just did the same

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Just now, jaxjagman said:

I dunno,the RAP just did the same

The RAP over the eastern valley is usually pretty poor, but we'll see.   A system trending northwest is not out of the question at the last minute.  OTH, the RAP and NAM being over amped is also not out of the question at this range.

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1 minute ago, Carvers Gap said:

The RAP over the eastern valley is usually pretty poor, but we'll see.   A system trending northwest is not out of the question at the last minute.  OTH, the RAP and NAM being over amped is also not out of the question at this range.

I still dunno,we usually have warn air in place here and start as more of a mix.Its really rare in our parts to already have cold air in place during a winter storm,so theres not gonna be much data incorporated to me than other skill

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