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January 15th-17th 2024 Arctic Blast/Snow Event


John1122
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4 minutes ago, fountainguy97 said:

Hrrr is trending toward that little bend in the precip shield that was not kind to Eastern areas on other models.

It's in the NAM family and maybe the same mechanics that are causing the NAM to be NW with the precip shield are what it's seeing. 

The 15z SREF mean was in about the same arc too. 

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2 minutes ago, John1122 said:

It's in the NAM family and maybe the same mechanics that are causing the NAM to be NW with the precip shield are what it's seeing. 

The 15z SREF mean was in about the same arc too. 

looks good for the eastern areas heavy snow band right down the Appalachian  

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9 minutes ago, John1122 said:

The dewpoints have crashed into oblivion in the mid-state. I wonder if that is having any effect on some lower QPF outputs for there.

Yeah dewpoint 6 here.  Thats not going to work for snow.

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URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Jackson KY
229 PM EST Sun Jan 14 2024

KYZ084>088-110-113-115>120-150330-
/O.UPG.KJKL.WW.Y.0003.240115T0500Z-240116T1700Z/
/O.NEW.KJKL.WS.W.0001.240115T0200Z-240116T1700Z/
McCreary-Whitley-Knox-Bell-Harlan-Floyd-Knott-Perry-Clay-Leslie-
Letcher-Martin-Pike-
Including the cities of Stearns, Whitley City, Corbin,
Williamsburg, Barbourville, Middlesboro, Pineville, Cumberland,
Harlan, Prestonsburg, Wheelwright, Hindman, Pippa Passes, Hazard,
Manchester, Hyden, Jenkins, Whitesburg, Inez, Coal Run,
Elkhorn City, Pikeville, and South Williamson
229 PM EST Sun Jan 14 2024

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON
EST TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 8
  inches. Locally higher amounts in excess of 8 inches are
  possible, particularly at elevations above 1,500 feet.

* WHERE...Portions of northeast, south central and southeast
  Kentucky.

* WHEN...From 9 PM this evening to noon EST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. The
  hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening
  commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in
your vehicle in case of an emergency.

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Just now, fountainguy97 said:

Bright banding is always indicative of a phase change in the precipitation. It may not show on the ptype charts but the hrrr is mixing sleet/rain in for 3-5 hrs.IMG_0437.thumb.jpeg.848c1c230d1dff969c109b2850fb95da.jpeg

I believe it could be due to flake size. The snow will be much wetter in those areas. Those big flakes often cause that too.

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