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January 15th-17th 2024 Arctic Blast/Snow Event


John1122
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Maybe, wrt to precip outputs, the model thinks moisture isn't quite making it into the DGZ. I clicked on a sounding on the HRRR in that ZR and it was 10 degrees and sub freezing through the whole profile. 
 
TS4PXjG.png
That's why there p type issues per KGSP's discussion this morning. My forecast high Tuesday in Wolf is 21 with freezing rain.

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1218 PM EST Sun Jan 14 2024

...In addition
to onset ptype questions, there is also the possibility that mid
level drying will occur and cut down on ice nucleation later Monday
night into Tuesday morning. This could lead to a transition back to
freezing drizzle or light freezing rain over the NC mountains.

Sent from my SM-S908U using Tapatalk


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5 minutes ago, John1122 said:

Not sure why but some of the models have been depicting p-types that aren't temp supported. Several have shown rain as the dominant p-type around the s/se side of the precip field but temps never getting out of the 20s while it shows it. I've never seen it before with model outputs. 

Yeah seems strange,this is even west of Nashville it shows ZR

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2 minutes ago, Buckethead said:

That's why per KGSP's discussion this morning. My forecast high Tuesday in Wolf is 21 with freezing rain.

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1218 PM EST Sun Jan 14 2024

...In addition
to onset ptype questions, there is also the possibility that mid
level drying will occur and cut down on ice nucleation later Monday
night into Tuesday morning. This could lead to a transition back to
freezing drizzle or light freezing rain over the NC mountains.

Sent from my SM-S908U using Tapatalk
 

I remember seeing some of that in Jan 96. had a layer of ice in the middle of 16 inches of snow. 

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This is my first system here where I am almost directly up wind of Frozen Head and Cross mt. I'm wondering how it plays out if that lift sets up just right 
Little backing up against Frozen Head can't hurt at all. I'm a touch worried about dryness taking a while to overcome being about 8 miles from the foot of the eastern escarpment.
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10 minutes ago, John1122 said:

It ingested the NAM 3k for my area. There's some 18 inch areas between the two of us over Cross Mtn/Frozenhead/Brimstone.

I'd take that,it snows all day tomorrow basically.Short range models dont show much past mid morning here,sure there will flakes flying around most of the day

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25 minutes ago, Jesse from KY said:

I am just curious if NWS Jackson will upgrade some of the TN/VA border counties to a Warning.

It's really puzzling they haven't. It's as if they've not looked at the Model's since the GFS showed the lower totals there. The NBM has heaviest there. Could be understaffed today or subs filling in . Alot if sickness going around. 

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8 minutes ago, TellicoWx said:

Whiteout conditions being reported in NW AR

Thanks for mentioning surface conditions.  Just checking the radar to the NAM, precip is breaking out faster than modeled.  For everyone following, this is typical in overrunning situations.  We can almost discard the globals at this point and go to the short range models.  Even beyond that it's time to compare the actual surface to see if those short range models are initializing correct.  Good luck everyone, hope the overrunning shield is a bit more robust than models indicate and hope we can keep any thermal issues down for those along the west side of the apps and especially for our brothers and sisters down toward Chattanooga.

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Nashville NWS looks like they are riding the NBM. That has continued to tick up with a lollipop over the Central Valley.

20a29018f8ce5105a19bf70b0fbdf64a.jpg


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Was just getting ready to post that. I like following OHX graphics as they show my area generally in the graphic. Gives me an idea what their thoughts are for western areas of the MRX CWA.
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Was just getting ready to post that. I like following OHX graphics as they show my area generally in the graphic. Gives me an idea what their thoughts are for western areas of the MRX CWA.

The one great thing about twitter is being able to know what’s going on down stream. Not getting into the other side of social media but for weather itself, it’s probably one of the greatest assets since the Doppler radar was invented IMO.


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Well, I'd say they will certainly be issuing one now. My point's hourly weather graph has increased totals to 5.7"

30 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said:

It's really puzzling they haven't. It's as if they've not looked at the Model's since the GFS showed the lower totals there. The NBM has heaviest there. Could be understaffed today or subs filling in . Alot if sickness going around. 

image.png.fa1932a1c47973dde480f5fee0e598be.png

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