Nash_LSU Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Another vote for Rufus. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 It looks like it in counties that touch 40 in East Tn and points south. The globals are the best case scenario, giving 12/13:1 over those areas but it lowers into the 10:1 range as the day wears on. The Canadian/GFS look similar. The hi-res models seem to see more warmth but it may be a bias with them. At one point on the NAM your area has 11:1 ratios and McGhee-Tys is closer to 7:1.Yeah I think a lot of bias is playing into the ratio forecasting much like mixing is. I think the depth and strength of the cold isn't really being modeled well by most and that ratios will be higher likely than most models are showing. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 1 minute ago, John1122 said: It looks like it in counties that touch 40 in East Tn and points south. The globals are the best case scenario, giving 12/13:1 over those areas but it lowers into the 10:1 range as the day wears on. The Canadian does the same. The hi-res models seem to see more warmth but it may be a bias with them. At one point on the NAM your area has 11:1 ratios and McGhee-Tys is closer to 7:1. Good points John. I know the Nam and HRRR have a warm bias here. Remember 21-'22 Winter my seasonal was 29.7". If the HRRR had been right it would of been less than 10 ! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 12 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said: If this thing turns out as modeled now, a big win for the Icon irt Medium range Models. I never thought I’d live long enough to see it……. lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
*Flash* Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 CMC and HRRR with slight NW trends. For Nashville metro, you take the 15z HRRR over 12z 10/10. Hopefully, the extent of the NW precip shield expands to include more of the populace. Still worried about dry air north of 40/west of 65. Regardless, that 700 jet will be howling over my location. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Silas Lang Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 10 minutes ago, ShawnEastTN said: 14 minutes ago, John1122 said: It looks like it in counties that touch 40 in East Tn and points south. The globals are the best case scenario, giving 12/13:1 over those areas but it lowers into the 10:1 range as the day wears on. The Canadian/GFS look similar. The hi-res models seem to see more warmth but it may be a bias with them. At one point on the NAM your area has 11:1 ratios and McGhee-Tys is closer to 7:1. Yeah I think a lot of bias is playing into the ratio forecasting much like mixing is. I think the depth and strength of the cold isn't really being modeled well by most and that ratios will be higher likely than most models are showing. So...if this bias is showing in the short range models, does that mean some locations could possibly see something like 50% more snow than modeled? Goodness. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 OBS time...not sure any model had freezing rain reports around Houston 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Speaking of OBS, are we going to use this thread for OBS as well or new thread? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Probably large enough event to make an OBS thread 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Uncle Nasty Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 I don't mean to sound like a Debbie downer, but I've seen this set-up over the years bring major disappointment to snowlovers in Chattanooga. I'm cautiously optimistic we are on the cold side of the precip, but I can't help but be concerned about the lurking warm air nearby. What I'm seeing is Chattanooga (the southern area bordering Georgia) will be in the 34°-36° temperature range tomorrow for a good portion of the day. Atlanta might even reach 50°. We aren't that far from Atlanta. I would really hate to see the Arctic cold air stall just to our north and west and keep us mainly in a mixed bag of precip until the changeover. All the pros on here, please correct me if I'm wrong, but I really do see that as a HUGE concern for Chattanooga. Sent from my SM-S916U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 14 Author Share Posted January 14 4 minutes ago, ShawnEastTN said: Speaking of OBS, are we going to use this thread for OBS as well or new thread? I prefer the same thread for everything but whatever anyone else wants. (I go back and read these during the off-season and like not having to go through multiple threads to get from predictions to results.) 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Y’all think it’s cold? KC last night . 2 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reb Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 2 minutes ago, John1122 said: I prefer the same thread for everything but whatever anyone else wants. (I go back and read these during the off-season and like not having to go through multiple threads to get from predictions to results.) Agreed 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Here’s another… never seen anything like this…https://x.com/_mlfootball/status/1746329126590398669?s=42&t=i7se-trklKrDVvM1_ovOTQ. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 14 Author Share Posted January 14 4 minutes ago, Uncle Nasty said: I don't mean to sound like a Debbie downer, but I've seen this set-up over the years bring major disappointment to snowlovers in Chattanooga. I'm cautiously optimistic we are on the cold side of the precip, but I can't help but be concerned about the lurking warm air nearby. What I'm seeing is Chattanooga (the southern area bordering Georgia) will be in the 34°-36° temperature range tomorrow for a good portion of the day. Atlanta might even reach 50°. We aren't that far from Atlanta. I would really hate to see the Arctic cold air stall just to our north and west and keep us mainly in a mixed bag of precip until the changeover. All the pros on here, please correct me if I'm wrong, but I really do see that as a HUGE concern for Chattanooga. Sent from my SM-S916U using Tapatalk There are best and worse case scenarios for your area that are more extreme than most others. But to get the heaviest snow sometimes being right next to the change over to rain is best. Best case for you guys looks like the RGEM. It stays plenty cold and snows all over Hamilton Co even to the border. Worst case is the 3k NAM, but it's more in the way the precip lines up. I will say this in my experience. If you start off as snow in a situation like this, it's normally harder to change over to freezing rain/sleet because the Arctic air is seeping in more and more as the event takes place and the snow helps cool the column. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Silas Lang Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 15 minutes ago, Silas Lang said: So...if this bias is showing in the short range models, does that mean some locations could possibly see something like 50% more snow than modeled? Goodness. Reading the latest MRX discussion, they seem to think most likely ratio is 12 to 1 to 15 to 1 ratios area wide. They only mention the southern border counties as the only exception. Seems they are not worried about warm air and also mention wherever the area of .50 to .80 precipitation sets up could get well beyond 6 inches. They seem very bullish overall. Don't see that often! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 14 Author Share Posted January 14 23 minutes ago, Silas Lang said: So...if this bias is showing in the short range models, does that mean some locations could possibly see something like 50% more snow than modeled? Goodness. I look at it more as achieving what's modeled. I honestly take the snowfall maps and shave 30-40 percent off and expect that as actual snow accumulation. Occasionally you get to 100 percent or more, but it's way more common to get in that 60-70 percent range. That's more reasonable and why MRX says 3-6 inches with possible dollops of higher amounts. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Latest NBM ticked up quite a bit. 4 run trend: 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 I don't know if I remember the year accurately but in the 2010's we had a similar overrunning event like this initially MRX forecast 2-5" for central valley and 1-2 southern valley, 3-6 for plateau, northeast & mountains. As the event unfolded it way way over performed in ratios and energy including a lee low. As the night dragged on they kept updating the totals until most everyone was forecast 10"-12" even southern valley. I ended that storm at 10". There are definitely times we score well beyond initial forecast in these setups. Though for every over score we probably have 2 busts. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Short range models look more faster with this system.HRRR even shows some mixing almost all the way to the Ky border but the thermal profiles dont support that 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Soak it up fellas . 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Soak it up fellas .I wished I could remember when the last storm was that featured every county in TN in a WSW. It’s been a while……. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse from KY Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 1 minute ago, PowellVolz said: Soak it up fellas . I am just curious if NWS Jackson will upgrade some of the TN/VA border counties to a Warning. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wurbus Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Looks like the Ukie finally came around. Shows .9 QPF and 9 inches of snow for KNX 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 14 Author Share Posted January 14 2 minutes ago, jaxjagman said: Short range models look more faster with this system.HRRR even shows some mixing almost all the way to the Ky border but the thermal profiles dont support that Not sure why but some of the models have been depicting p-types that aren't temp supported. Several have shown rain as the dominant p-type around the s/se side of the precip field but temps never getting out of the 20s while it shows it. I've never seen it before with model outputs. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 41 minutes ago, Uncle Nasty said: I don't mean to sound like a Debbie downer, but I've seen this set-up over the years bring major disappointment to snowlovers in Chattanooga. I'm cautiously optimistic we are on the cold side of the precip, but I can't help but be concerned about the lurking warm air nearby. What I'm seeing is Chattanooga (the southern area bordering Georgia) will be in the 34°-36° temperature range tomorrow for a good portion of the day. Atlanta might even reach 50°. We aren't that far from Atlanta. I would really hate to see the Arctic cold air stall just to our north and west and keep us mainly in a mixed bag of precip until the changeover. All the pros on here, please correct me if I'm wrong, but I really do see that as a HUGE concern for Chattanooga. Sent from my SM-S916U using Tapatalk It is a valid concern. I'm in the same boat here 5 miles from the NC/TN border. The hrrr is ticking north in the mid range now. I would expect mixing for you and myself Monday during peak heating atleast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 I am just curious if NWS Jackson will upgrade some of the TN/VA border counties to a Warning.Probably if it begins over producing they will. Very possible those border counties in KY might over perform. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse from KY Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Just now, ShawnEastTN said: 1 minute ago, Jesse from KY said: I am just curious if NWS Jackson will upgrade some of the TN/VA border counties to a Warning. Probably if it begins over producing they will. Very possible those border counties in KY might over perform. It sure wouldn't hurt my feelings if we overperformed! Lol. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Maybe, wrt to precip outputs, the model thinks moisture isn't quite making it into the DGZ. I clicked on a sounding on the HRRR in that ZR and it was 10 degrees and sub freezing through the whole profile. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 14 Author Share Posted January 14 As Jax noted, the HRRR is booking it. I've now got 4 digital inches on it by 5am tomorrow morning. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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