fountainguy97 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 33 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: And this isn't about betting or winning or losing. Speak for yourself. No mercy over here it's bullseye in my backyard or this is the largest bust of all time. seriously though the reason I'm here and not elsewhere is because no one here lets their backyard determine if a model is good or bad. Can't be said for others. 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 12z HRW WRF-ARW: 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 12z HRW FV3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 finally, the RGEM caves and almost all eastern areas remain frozen. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 12z RGEM: 3 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Anyone else thinking 3-6” in and around Knoxville could be a little light? . 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 12z iconSent from my SM-S916U1 using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Anyone else thinking 3-6” in and around Knoxville could be a little light? .Could be. Remembering back across a lot of storms that were in similar type situations it seemed MRX started sort of under the higher guidance and then just bumped totals as the event was underway. Similar to WVLT over the last 24 hours. Yesterday saying 1-2, then 2-3, now saying 2-5. Before long they'll be 4-6 or more. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greyhound Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Anyone else thinking 3-6” in and around Knoxville could be a little light? .Based on the consistent numbers these runs keep spitting out, I most certainly agree with you. One of my previous ways to “forecast” amounts at my house was to take about 75% off projected totals (and it worked!) but I’m not really feeling that with this system!!! Bring me the goods baby!!!!! Even though we live close to each other, I can’t wait to compare totals with you and Stovepipe. I think Silas live kinda close also. . 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 1 minute ago, PowellVolz said: Anyone else thinking 3-6” in and around Knoxville could be a little light? . Lee side enhancements in the valley are not usually picked up well until almost now time. Add in the high ratios it has to work with, definitely think that may be too low. Someone (possibly a lot of someones) are about to get nailed with 12+ if that Lee materializes. 4 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chattownsnow Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 12z iconSent from my SM-S916U1 using TapatalkLooks like it came in a little lighter on total QPF. Basically noise at this point I suppose but worth noting. The short range models are mostly holding serve if not beefing up QPF slightly as the event closes in. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Think back to storms past, lots of us have done the cliff dive, especially along 75...only for a Lee to get in better view under 10-12 hrs to go. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dwagner88 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 1 minute ago, Chattownsnow said: Looks like it came in a little lighter on total QPF. Basically noise at this point I suppose but worth noting. The short range models are mostly holding serve if not beefing up QPF slightly as the event closes in. . It's also mixing down here. Kuchera is lower than 10:1. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chattownsnow Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 It's also mixing down here. Kuchera is lower than 10:1.Yeah I saw that and figured that’s what it was. I believe the icon is often on the warmer side with temps across the board if I remember correctly so it may be wrong with that. I don’t think any model besides the NAM still have mixing issues. Though it is right at the door step . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 It's also mixing down here. Kuchera is lower than 10:1.Is the mixing at the end of the event when we start to lose rates?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dwagner88 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 6 minutes ago, PowellVolz said: Is the mixing at the end of the event when we start to lose rates? . I'm not sure. I didn't look at the hourly frames. But I did notice a couple of things. The accumulations shot further down into north AL and GA, but they clearly aren't all snow. The difference between the 10:1 and Kuchera is too much. I think it's sleet. I also think it's kinda pointless to look at it at such a fine grained level. There will be a warm nose somewhere, but there's no way the models are going to nail that down precisely. I still think the arctic air wins out and the sleet is minimal. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 14 Author Share Posted January 14 There's a stark ratio contrast from N to S across East Tennessee. It's less so the further west you go. I generally hover around 14:1 through the event. 11:1 around I-40 but it gets as low as 5:1 in Northeast Alabama and NWGa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wurbus Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Looks like almost all the models are showing the heaviest band to setup just south of Knoxville. Through Monroe, Blount, & Sevier counties. Still looks great for most everyone though. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 There's a stark ratio contrast from N to S across East Tennessee. It's less so the further west you go. I generally hover around 14:1 through the event. 11:1 around I-40 but it gets as low as 5:1 in Northeast Alabama and NWGa.I was counting on 14:1 north of 40 in ETn. Is that too steep?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Looks like almost all the models are showing the heaviest band to setup just south of Knoxville. Through Monroe, Blount, & Sevier counties. Still looks great for most everyone though.It’s where the moisture is banking up against the Apps and backing into the valley. Its been suggested that it could be under done. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 14 Author Share Posted January 14 12z RRFS A (really need a nickname for this) 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 9 minutes ago, John1122 said: 12z RRFS A (really need a nickname for this) Rufus!! 5 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Just now, fountainguy97 said: Rufus!! Took the words right out of my mouth, I was just about to post Rufus! 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 1 minute ago, Stovepipe said: Took the words right out of my mouth, I was just about to post Rufus! If it catches on we will take 50/50 credit haha! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 12z GFS with a 12 inch dollop on Reb. 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 35 minutes ago, PowellVolz said: I was counting on 14:1 north of 40 in ETn. Is that too steep? . I was thinking of you when driving down a freshly brined Maynardville Hwy yesterday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 1 hour ago, Mrwolf1972 said: 12z icon Sent from my SM-S916U1 using Tapatalk If this thing turns out as modeled now, a big win for the Icon irt Medium range Models. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reb Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 1 minute ago, Stovepipe said: 12z GFS with a 12 inch dollop on Reb. 6 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 14 Author Share Posted January 14 44 minutes ago, PowellVolz said: I was counting on 14:1 north of 40 in ETn. Is that too steep? . It looks like it in counties that touch 40 in East Tn and points south. The globals are the best case scenario, giving 12/13:1 over those areas but it lowers into the 10:1 range as the day wears on. The Canadian/GFS look similar. The hi-res models seem to see more warmth but it may be a bias with them. At one point on the NAM your area has 11:1 ratios and McGhee-Tys is closer to 7:1. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 14 Author Share Posted January 14 18 minutes ago, fountainguy97 said: Rufus!! Sounds solid to me. Rufus it will be from me. For some reason typing RRFS A is way annoying to me fingers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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