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January 15th-17th 2024 Arctic Blast/Snow Event


John1122
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Leaving Birmingham this morning to head to Gatlinburg. All models I’ve seen this morning have really started to jack up the totals up that way. If we don’t have mixing issues then I see 8+ being possible. Good luck to everyone on the storm!


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Well, here we are sitting before a possible historic storm especially when you consider the temps behind the storm.  So being who I am, I am always thinking about what could go wrong.  I don’t have the expertise to get into the technical details but I remember one particular painful fail that took place @ least 15 or 20 years ago.  I lived in Athens and Neal Pascal was the meteorologist @ channel 9 in Chattanooga, a very good Met.  We had WSW over the entire area. Everyone was sure we were going to get many inches.  I watched the Radar as it approached and a few flakes started coming down I expected the lower Atmosphere to quickly saturate and we would be in business.  I waited and waited and waited. I never saw another flake all day.  We had a huge snowstorm that never reached the ground. There was high pressure to the north that just kept feeding the dry air into the lower levels, at least that is how I understand it,  and the moisture could never overcome it.  This was the biggest bust ever remembered and excuses were flying This storm however is going to move forward because it is our time.

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Good morning everyone!  Feeling pretty dang good about our chances here in the central valley.  The SREF has improved greatly for TYS.  It still suggests a changeover to freezing rain for a few hours but much better than yesterday.  The mean has nearly .6 QPF.

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1 minute ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Twere a good un:

70AzRBW.png

I trie to make a trend gif, but weatherbell doesn't go back to the 6z that ran out that far 

Interesting that yesterday some  thought the valley would be left out. Look at that 9 inch tally on Sullivan County. 

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2 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

The 3k NAM is currently working its issues out.....

The NAM looks excellent for my area; whether or not it has issues, I guess we will all see at the end which model wins! I wonder if FanDuel has a category for this. We could do an over/under for a number of inches in any one location. 

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1 minute ago, matt9697 said:

The NAM looks excellent for my area; whether or not it has issues, I guess we will all see at the end which model wins! I wonder if FanDuel has a category for this. We could do an over/under for a number of inches in any one location. 

Nah, I meant it is a good run.  

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In all seriousness, the 12z NAM(3k and 12k) does look like it is still on the juice to some extent as it is still trending SE in small steps.  One thing to watch, at least one of them had a NW jog at one point - the 12k did later in the run but was south earlier in the same run.  The Hi-Res 3k NAM took another jog SE.  So, tough to know what NAM trends are when one goes one way and one goes the other during the same run.  It could score a coup.  But which one(hi-res or 12k) and which run?  In the eastern valley, we do want the NAM on board at some point, because it is in coming into range where it can score a coup and has certainly done so in the past.  It appears that MRX either tossed the NAM or didn't weight it heavily overnight.  We will see what other mesoscale models show at 12z in relation to it.

And this isn't about betting or winning or losing.  Sure, have at it in re: to one's own backyard.  However, our ultimate goal is to watch trends and to find out where it goes.  We really have two model cycles left to get a decent idea: 12z and 18z for most and 0z overnight for eastern areas.

One thing to watch, a lee side low is developing on models which hammer E TN the most.  That is a good feature for E TN peeps.  Keep an eye out for that one.

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42 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

6z HRRR:

iR9KV4j.png

 

12z HRRR:

u0nOgjq.png

 

This post is not for Holston or the veterans.  Here are some tricks old timers use.  

It has been a while since we have tracked a decent storm for the eastern side of the state - maybe three or four years in the valleys?  The biggest thing to watch right now are trends.  If totals continue to go up with each run today, that means models are still likely playing catch-up.  If modeling begins to reduce totals, same general idea...models are playing catch-up re: reducing totals.  Trends, even small ones, in regards to precip axis placements matter a lot as a small move can have huge implications 300miles away.  Think of it like this.  If a hurricane is coming into the coast at a 30 degree angle, any change to its trajectory changes the landfall quite a bit.  If it is coming in at a right angle to the coast, it doesn't change as much.  Because this is flat, but turns over the eastern valley, entry points(into the eastern valley) for the system and the jet make a big difference in the eastern valley.  Models are still moving some and that is expected as they get new data.  This would appear to be moving around less which makes it easier.  Miller A's are known to change even at the very last model run - and this is not a Miller A.   So, hopefully this is a bit more predictable.  Good trends overnight as totals went up.  Let's see what 12z brings to the table.

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Again, for the eastern valley(MBY) these are the three or four models that I use in order from here on out:  RGEM, HRRR, 3kNAM, RAP.      I haven't looked at the ARW, but it can be good as well.   Enjoy ya'll, I have to head out for a bit.  Bring it on home.

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One thing I like about this forum is how everyone treats each other with respect. You can be someone like me that has just enough knowledge to make me dangerous, all the way up to pro mets or their equivalent like @energyjeff and Carver.  It’s a real prize and we all need to guard ourselves always making sure we treat each other as we want to be treated. Keep it up and lets get this storm dialed in.  As an aside. I think it is even more impressive that our forum is such a good space besides the fact that we have so so much disappointments with all the different mico-climates.

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14 minutes ago, bearman said:

One thing I like about this forum is how everyone treats each other with respect. You can be someone like me that has just enough knowledge to make me dangerioust, all the way up to pro mets or their equivalent like @energyjeff and Carver.  I is a real prize and we all need to guard ourselves always, making sure we treat each other as we want to be treated. Keep it up and lets get this storm dialed in.  As an aside. I think it is even more impressive that our forum is such a good space besides the fact that we have so so much disappointments with all the different mico-climates.

Well said, and I agree.  I think that’s one of the biggest things that separates our forum from the others on this site.  I appreciate conversing with all you guys and gals!

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