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January 15th-17th 2024 Arctic Blast/Snow Event


John1122
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4 minutes ago, Silas Lang said:

0z RGEM pretty much the same as the 18z, but gives a little bit more to areas favored last run. 

rgem-all-se-total_snow_kuchera-5492800.png

 

What is starting to limit modeling trends is that the entry point into the forum area is northern MS to northern Alabama. Why?  It is closer to the actual event, and less spread in modeling.  That in turn, begins to limit how far the system can trend northwards.  The RGEM is my "go to" from this point forward in the chase...for the eastern valley.

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10 minutes ago, Silas Lang said:

0z RGEM pretty much the same as the 18z, but gives a little bit more to areas favored last run. 

rgem-all-se-total_snow_kuchera-5492800.png

 

For SWVA folks, Look at the agreement on the NAM and RGEM for the communities of Duffield/Jasper/Big Stone Gap.

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This is probably the best shot at subzero temps in Chattanooga in my life. If we get the good snow cover shown on many of the globals, we have a real shot at it. I don't think it has happened since January 1985 (-10 and the all time record). I was born in 1988.

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6 minutes ago, TellicoWx said:

MEG updated theirs with the warning...still waiting on MRX and OHX 

GOING CONSERVATIVE ON SNOW TOTALS This is typical.  MRX at least. They will pick the most consevative model and cut that in half. Or they will go the other direction in rare occations especially if they have late in the game issued an advisory. They will keep totals going without any chance.  Seen it both ways.

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