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January 15th-17th 2024 Arctic Blast/Snow Event


John1122
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4 minutes ago, TellicoWx said:

Where that streak enters out of AR...whether KY or MS border tells the rest of the run

Would you mind posting a picture of this?  I'd like to start monitoring it.  Thank you for the insight!

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6 minutes ago, TellicoWx said:

Thank you to whoever posted the retired Met twitter post earlier...it unlocked the key. The driver of this system is a 700 jet streak...NAM was up in middle KY, everyone else Middle TN...NAM took a half step that direction. You wanna be on the right side entrance of that jet (basically south side of it)

You're welcome! ;)

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I didn't say they would or should, but I bet they have extensively talked about Hamilton county.  The probability outputs they have released a lot of Hamilton County at least southern 2/3 fall below 50% threshold for 3" or more.  However northern Hamilton County has tended to fall about 50% and up for 3".  Safe thing would be to leave Hamilton in the WSW, but an argument based on guidance can be made for either a WInter Weather Advisory, or Winter Storm Warning.  Bradley, Polk and SW NC there is no real argument Advisory based on what MRX is sharing makes sense.
 

Ahh gotcha.

They tend to leave Hamilton county in a Winter Storm Watch until go time.


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Thank you to whoever posted the retired Met twitter post earlier...it unlocked the key. The driver of this system is a 700 jet streak...NAM was up in middle KY, everyone else Middle TN...NAM took a half step that direction. You wanna be on the right side entrance of that jet (basically south side of it)

I believe MRX mentioned something like that either this morning or yesterday.

I was looking at the 500 MB maps earlier and I noticed what looked like the possibility of some divergence aloft with a slight split flow on the right exit of that jet. I didn’t say anything about it because I wasn’t sure how much was enough to make a difference.


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5 minutes ago, Stovepipe said:

Would you mind posting a picture of this?  I'd like to start monitoring it.  Thank you for the insight!

Vertical velocity at the 700mb will show you the clearest picture of the best dynamics and lift (which is always the right entrance region) The nam has been trending massively toward other modelsIMG_0435.gif.df2667ba1abd2f1cb67ad5074c96236b.gif

 

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The NAM is still managing to rain in central/southern east TN.  I just have a hard time believing that could be accurate based on everything else we've seen.
Yeah hard to imagine for me as well. Hopefully it comes fully around at 6Z, 0Z was a huge step in the right direction.
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The NAM's tendency to over amp things may be contributing to the valley p-type issues. Arctic air push is also frequently under modeled. It's dense. It should spill right in. It could be right, but I'm not as worried since it is on an island right now.

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The NAM's tendency to over amp things may be contributing to the valley p-type issues. Arctic air push is also frequently under modeled. It's dense. It should spill right in. It could be right, but I'm not as worried since it is on an island right now.
Agree, it's either going to fall in line or every other model will cave to it and it'll score a huge huge coup. I still view it as an outsider especially since it moved in the direction of a most other guidance tonight unless we start seeing other move towards the NAM at 0Z, then I might start worrying.
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According to how far north you live, looks like you're probably good for 1 to 4+ inches. But the story isn't written yet, I don't believe. There's gonna be someone close to an edge north and south that sees snow a few miles away but doesn't get much. 
 
Can you say "Chattanooga "?

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