Stovepipe Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 4 minutes ago, TellicoWx said: Where that streak enters out of AR...whether KY or MS border tells the rest of the run Would you mind posting a picture of this? I'd like to start monitoring it. Thank you for the insight! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
*Flash* Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 6 minutes ago, TellicoWx said: Thank you to whoever posted the retired Met twitter post earlier...it unlocked the key. The driver of this system is a 700 jet streak...NAM was up in middle KY, everyone else Middle TN...NAM took a half step that direction. You wanna be on the right side entrance of that jet (basically south side of it) You're welcome! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 A second streak should enter from the south...NAM has been taking it due north almost...everyone else brings it up in a NE direction...that makes or breaks the eastern valley Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tucker1027 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 I didn't say they would or should, but I bet they have extensively talked about Hamilton county. The probability outputs they have released a lot of Hamilton County at least southern 2/3 fall below 50% threshold for 3" or more. However northern Hamilton County has tended to fall about 50% and up for 3". Safe thing would be to leave Hamilton in the WSW, but an argument based on guidance can be made for either a WInter Weather Advisory, or Winter Storm Warning. Bradley, Polk and SW NC there is no real argument Advisory based on what MRX is sharing makes sense. Ahh gotcha. They tend to leave Hamilton county in a Winter Storm Watch until go time. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Thank you to whoever posted the retired Met twitter post earlier...it unlocked the key. The driver of this system is a 700 jet streak...NAM was up in middle KY, everyone else Middle TN...NAM took a half step that direction. You wanna be on the right side entrance of that jet (basically south side of it)I believe MRX mentioned something like that either this morning or yesterday. I was looking at the 500 MB maps earlier and I noticed what looked like the possibility of some divergence aloft with a slight split flow on the right exit of that jet. I didn’t say anything about it because I wasn’t sure how much was enough to make a difference. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 5 minutes ago, Stovepipe said: Would you mind posting a picture of this? I'd like to start monitoring it. Thank you for the insight! Vertical velocity at the 700mb will show you the clearest picture of the best dynamics and lift (which is always the right entrance region) The nam has been trending massively toward other models 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Why would they pull Hamilton County out? .There could be some PType issues there but that was before the NAM just ran. All of that might have just changed. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 The NAM is still managing to rain in central/southern east TN. I just have a hard time believing that could be accurate based on everything else we've seen. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 The NAM is still managing to rain in central/southern east TN. I just have a hard time believing that could be accurate based on everything else we've seen.Yeah hard to imagine for me as well. Hopefully it comes fully around at 6Z, 0Z was a huge step in the right direction. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codgator Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 12 minutes ago, *Flash* said: You're welcome! That was good after I found out he was a long standing MET Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 The 540 thickness line just never really punches past the plateau. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 14 minutes ago, Stovepipe said: Would you mind posting a picture of this? I'd like to start monitoring it. Thank you for the insight! 18z vs 00z NAM 700mb wind (jet streak) 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 You wanna be near and just to the south side of the yellow basically 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 As the NAM plays out, it takes the jet more to the half moon look in KY...hence the valley doesn't end up like the other modeling. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 0z NAM: 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dwagner88 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 The NAM's tendency to over amp things may be contributing to the valley p-type issues. Arctic air push is also frequently under modeled. It's dense. It should spill right in. It could be right, but I'm not as worried since it is on an island right now. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bigbald Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Looked like NAM pretty much painted all southwest va with 8-13 inches kuchura, high knob lolli pop. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tucker1027 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 0z NAM:This is depressing for Chattanooga. . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u2 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Although funny, it's true. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 The NAM's tendency to over amp things may be contributing to the valley p-type issues. Arctic air push is also frequently under modeled. It's dense. It should spill right in. It could be right, but I'm not as worried since it is on an island right now.Agree, it's either going to fall in line or every other model will cave to it and it'll score a huge huge coup. I still view it as an outsider especially since it moved in the direction of a most other guidance tonight unless we start seeing other move towards the NAM at 0Z, then I might start worrying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Same streak on 0z HRRR..south side is down near MS border...hence plays out with a more southern solution 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 3 minutes ago, TellicoWx said: Same streak on 0z HRRR..south side is down near MS border...hence plays out with a more southern solution Very much appreciated, thank you! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 1 minute ago, PowellVolz said: Nothing against Aldrich or his forecast, but I have a hard time taking anybody serious that calls themselves Captain Accurate. 4 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 RGEM still mixing for the east but technically every so slightly more cold push. Tiny tiny shift lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 FWIW the WRF family of models and the fv3, and the RAP, are like the hrrr with the cold push all the way to the state line 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Uncle Nasty Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 According to how far north you live, looks like you're probably good for 1 to 4+ inches. But the story isn't written yet, I don't believe. There's gonna be someone close to an edge north and south that sees snow a few miles away but doesn't get much. Can you say "Chattanooga "? Sent from my SM-S916U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 I've been telling ya'll that the jet max is the key for the eastern valley. It is what gives the lift to the system. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Silas Lang Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 0z RGEM pretty much the same as the 18z, but gives a little bit more to areas favored last run. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tucker1027 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Can you say "Chattanooga "? Sent from my SM-S916U using TapatalkDon’t wish that on us Uncle! . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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